Sprinting Bulls

Dear Investors

On Thursday

It was last minute sprint by exhausted bulls took Nifty

Above the psychologically important level, of 5400. During

The day, after opening with a ‘Gap up’ Nifty moved around

 5350 all the day. After testing higher levels, it moved back to the

Support at 5350 and in last few minutes Nifty (Bulls) ‘Sprinted’ to

 5400 like an Athlete, to close above 5400(5412)

The finish for the week and day was like any Hindi Movie Melodrama,

 Where everything ends with joy and happiness

. Nifty was helped to move above 5400 by Oil and Gas sector, ONGC

RIL along with Hero Honda, DLF,Cipla and some others like NTPC and PNB

Data for the day

Indices

Open: 5372(17917)

High: 5422(18072)

Low: 5356(17862)

Close: 5412(18044)

Advance Decline: 1534:1291

Turnover: 2, 22,000cr.

What Next;

Week has ended on a positive note, but May series was a

Disappointing one. Nifty and Sensex lost around 5.5% in

This series.

Tomorrow market will start next series on a positive note of closing

Above 5400, it was not a convincing end, may be short covering

Has give a push above 5400

.On the back of weak rollover and Negative F & O data,

 It has to be seen how markets respond to……….

Underlying, worsening, fundamentals and Global situation.

Nifty has to remain above 5350 to qualify for the ‘Final Round’

Otherwise below that it will be landing in to ‘Deep waters’, as

Long as fundamentals are same, one has to take help of Technical

Levels to trade in coming days and tomorrow

Levels to Watch

UPWARD: 5480(18300)/5515(18415)/5553(18524)

DOWNWARD: 5356(17862)/5310(17650)5250(17480)

Technical View

Pivot at: 5396(17992)

Nifty has closed just above short term moving averages,

5 DMA @ 5402 and 5 Day Exponential Average @ 5398.

And Just below the

10 DMA @ 5421 and 10 Day Exp. Average @ 5424

Indicating that, short term looks unpredictable.

Nifty has to move above 20 DMA (5486) and 20 Day

Exponential average (5485) to qualify for temporary

Reversal of the trend

Nifty will face selling pressure at and above 5515/5553

Levels (5553 is 4O Day Exp. Average) leading to fall

At lower support levels.

If Nifty starts correcting the ‘Bounce’ it will have support at

5396(Pivot) and 5350, If not sustained Nifty may slide

Down to the level of 5310 which is last ‘Bastian’ for Nifty.

Break of 5310 will take Nifty to 2011 lows at 5177.

Market Strategy

-One can take long positions considering that, the Bounce

  Will travel some more distance as mentioned above

 -Traders, short term and positional, should keep strict

  Stop loss at proper technical supports and book profits

  Nearer to resistance levels.

-All long positions will have stop loss at 5330 and a target

  At 5553

-Fresh short can be created once Nifty breaks 5350 or

  Moves above 5550

-5515-5550should be treated as  ‘No trade zone’

-Long term investors can buy at and below 5330/5310

 Levels in small lots so as to do averaging at lower levels

COMMENTS

Last minute ‘spring’ by the ‘Exhausted Bulls’ gave some hopes

To the traders and investors for next series. It has to be seen

How markets behave during next few trading sessions.

Today’s bounce may take Nifty to higher levels of 5515or

At the most 5550.

There are no fundamental and technical reasons for the trend to

Get reversed from ‘Down to Up’. F& O data for next series does

Not suggest any drastic recovery from current levels

On the contrary the result season was disappointing one and

There was no buying by FII, DII and Retail investors.

Even though commodity prices are slowing down crude has

Started its upward journey again

Greece factor is steel ‘a live wire’ and China’s slowing is a

Concern for Asian markets.

 All in all there are no ‘Fundamental’ changes for Markets to

Have over night ‘U’ turn, so traders and investors should take

Today’s move with caution and watch further developments, ‘in

House and on global front before taking positions either short

Term or long term

Stock Specific

Short term trading positions can be taken in

RIL

HCL Tech

Dabur

Sterlite

PNB

Zee Entertainment

Lupin

Ranbaxy

Suryalata Spinning (143)

Indus ind Bank (2480

Arvind(76)

Camlin(76)

Sabero Organic (90)

Hind Zinc(130)

Sumeet Ind.(31)

Sharp Ind(50)

Sintex(165)

IPCA Lab (312)

GMDC (138)

V-Guard (202)

All these can be bought in small lots for long term as well as

For positional trading, till Nifty is in an up move. Positional

Traders should keep stop loss at 3/5% lower levels.

IMPRESSION

RELIEVED (Temporarily)

Thanks

Dr. Vasant Bele

All the views are personal, Invest with caution and after

Consulting experts