(Bull with) Heavy Legs

                                                    Market for Monday

Dear Investors

At present market is trying to put a strong fight with the help

 Of some good results and some short covering, there will be

 Some volatile  action, as we are near to the closure of the expiry.

On Friday it was results of L and T which helped large cap stocks

 To move forward and add to the Thursday’s positive closing.

Market closed in green with broader market exhibiting strong gains,

But the volumes were low and there was no buying by FII, it was

Mainly due to short covering that Nifty moved above 5500.but profit

 Booking on the back of last day of the week made it to loose some weight

Leading to sub 5500 close at 5486.It was a good session for Mid and Small

Cap stocks, but turnover was not to the satisfaction confirming that the

Activity must have been limited to short covering.

Data for the Day

INDICES

Open: 5450(18199)

High: 5517(18429)

Low: 5432(18161)

Close: 5486(18326)

Advance Decline: 1534:1286

Turnover: 152000 cr.

WHAT NEXT

 Market has closed in green for last two days of the week.

It was on expected lines. All the action was mainly due

To heavy short covering and some fresh buying in counters

Like L and T.

One  has to see how far bulls, with ‘Heavy Legs’,

Will be able to push them up on Monday

Next week is the expiry of current

Series, this may lead to fresh short covering, market has some

Strength to move few hundred points ahead of Expiry and

Good results, but there is every chance that, in absence of fresh

Buying by FIIs, DIIs and retail investors Nifty may start loosing

Ground, once these temporary triggers are off the field

.Traders should not expect much up side from here, at the most

100/125 points of Nifty is the possibility. It will be difficult for

Nifty to move beyond 5580/5606. Traders should trade with caution

And book profits at the first site of reversal,

Levels to watch

UPWARD: 5524(16499)/5591(18642)/5641(18798)

DOWNWARD: 5420(18060) /5380(17780) /5310(17600)

Technical View

Pivo at: 5478(18305)

Nifty has closed at 5486, which is just above the important

 Support at 5480.and near 10 DMA @5489.

Nifty is above 5 DAM @ 5441and 5 Day Exponential Average

. @ 5459

This bounce may face immediate resistance at 5549, 20 Day exp.

Average

All depends on the strength of the move, from the volume and

Turnover data as well as F and O data it looks that, Nifty may not

Cross the vital 200 Day Exponential average at 5591 which is

Also a 20 DMA.

There is every chance that once the short covering is over and

There are no fresh triggers for markets to move up, bears will

Start ‘tightening the ropes’ around the neck of bulls. Once Nifty

 Breaks 5350/5330 level with volume Nifty will gravitate below

5310 to open the gate way for fresh ‘Down Move’, having

Support at 5177

Market Strategy for Monday

Based on technical possibilities and events during the day

 Avoid shorts up to 5563

Traders can initiate fresh longs up to 5590 level with a stop

Loss at 5380.

All long positions should be booked at and above 5590 and

No fresh longs created above that

Existing short trades can be continued till Nifty is below 5524,

This should act as a stop loss

Fresh shorts can be built if Nifty moves above 5590 or

 Drops below 5350

Have small trades with stop loss and book profits at higher levels

Long term investors can chip in with buying in fundamentally

Strong Mid and Small cap stocks at every fall.

Wait for long term purchases till the Bounce is over and Nifty starts

Moving down

COMMENTS

Market movements during last few weeks indicate that there is

Very little belief or confidence in market. Even last two days

 Bounce back does not indicate any fresh buying either

From FIIs or retail investors.  Nifty might have moved up to 5500

After taking support at 5400, but data suggests that it is on weak feet

Of  Bulls, while the pull by bears is very strong. The moves of the

Bulls are not strong enough to convert this relief rally in to a fresh

Buying,

All depends on results of major stocks like Telco,TISCO, GAIL

Etc.

Global news flow will affect markets to great extent, the week end

News on Europe, Greece downgrade by FITCH and US data

Will have significant impact on Indian markets

Taking in to view all the fundamental (Global and Local) and

Technical factors in to consideration,  I think Indian markets

Has to travel some distance ‘Down the Line’ Once Nifty MOVES

Below 5400, which is most likely, then markets will slide down in

Panic to lower levels.

The encouraging thing for long term investors is , valuations of

Number of good Mid cap stocks have gone down to most

Attractive levels so as to initiate bargain hunting, the valuations

Are much low compared to the index level.

Day traders should be Cautious while long term investors can

Be ‘Adventurous’

Stock Specific

Buy in to large cap stock hammered down during last few days

With a stop loss at Nifty level of 5560/5590

L and T

ICICI Bank

HCL Tech

RIL

SBI

BOB

Reliance Infra

Ranbaxy(495)

IDFC (136)

Ador Fontech(109)

BOSCH (6850)

Raymond (344)

Arvind(72)

Suryaamba Spinning (45)

D-Link (32)

Voltas (166)

Sharp Ind. (43)

Federal Mugal(265)

RamkeY Infra (274)

Camlin(72)

 Everest Kanto (81)

Sumeet Ind. (26)

For all day and positional trades keep stop loss at

3 to 5% down or Nifty level of 5380

IMPRESSION

PSEUDO EUPHORIC

Thanks

Dr. Vasant Bele

Read market next week as a separate article

All the views are personal, invest with caution and

After consulting experts