Hesitant to move

Dear Investors

 On Tuesday

 Market after yesterday’s catastrophic fall opened flat and

Remained in a small range to end flat. Nifty closed just below

5400, sensex, above 18000.

It was ‘Euro zone’ debt crisis, which kept markets in an indecisive

State, market participants were ‘Hesitant’ to take positions on either

Side as corporate earning also failed to lift the sentiment.

Data for the day:

Indices

Open: 5385(18016)

High: 5422(18110)

Low: 5367(17933)

Close: 5394(18011)

Advance Decline: 1373:1476

Turnover: 1 50 000 cr.

What next

We are nearing expiry for the May series, volatility will be

At its highest level. Due to the ‘Global Uncertainties’ traders

And speculators are unlikely take large positions in next series.

Roll over will also be affected due to ‘Fear of Greece, Spain

And Italy being declared ‘Defaulter’

Being expiry period some short covering my propel Nifty

To higher levels during the day, trades can be choppy all

The day, one should take care in having trades in such circumstances.

Try to follow the technical levels to put stop loss and profit targets

Levels to watch:

UPWARD: 5449(18195) / 5480(18260) / 5515(18400)

DOWNWARD: 5380(17990)5330(17800)/5310(17600)

Technical View:

Pivot at: 5394(19018)

Nifty has closed below all the short term averages like

5 DMA @ 5423(18111)

10 DMA @5450(18199)

20 DMA @ 5525 (18439)

This indicates that even if there is some technical bounce due

To expiry, it may be short lived as the near term trend looks

Flat to negative.

 Unless Nifty moves above 5450/5480 on closing basis one can not

Assume that we are at the bottom.

5515 and 5585(200 Day Exponential average) will be proving

Difficult levels to cross and may invite heavy selling and shorting.

Unless Nifty moves above 200DMA @ 5755 markets will be

Under the thumbs of Bears

5330/5310 will be the vital support for Nifty, Once Nifty moves below

This, then there will be ‘Precipitate’ fall to the level of 5177.

So watch 5310 as an Indicator for medium term trend.

Market strategy

-Traders can have intraday trades in stocks with strict

 Stop loss and small targets for profit

-Do not carry positions for next trading sessions

-Fresh longs can be created in early trades with a stop loss at

 5330 and booking above 5515

-It is advised not to create fresh shorts for the day .

-Existing shorts can be carried with a stop loss at 5449

-Fresh shorts can be created if Nifty moves above 5480

-No long term buying is advised as its nearing expiry and

  Any rise or fall may not be a true trend of the market

COMMENTS

Volatility will be at its peak.

In general mood looks like to be nervous against the ‘Global

Crisis’, Italy, Greece and Spain are moving towards ‘Debt Default’,

Housing data in US is disappointing, China’s PMI (Purchasing

Managers Index, it is the measure of the heartbeats of the

Manufacturing Economy) is down and Result season in India

Was not to the satisfaction.

Government policies are puzzling and macro economic data is

Against long term environment

All this is keeping FIIs/DIIs and Retail Investors away from

Market.

The fall in commodity prices may be because of slow growth

In China and remaining part of the world, which can help India?

In pulling FII money

Fall in crude prices also indicate reduction in demand.

All in all these are good signs for Indian macro economic

Environment

If monsoon is good, all this will help in Inflation getting eased

Leading to, stabilization of interest rates in near term.

In such circumstances we can expect next half of the year as

An encouraging one.

Traders will have to bear pain for next few months but long term

Investors can start building their portfolio Bit by Bit, during all

Panic situations.

Stock Specifics

All these are trades for ‘Expiry Bounce’ do not carry trades

For next day, keep stop loss

Land T

ICICI Bank

SBI

SAIL

Suzlon

Lupin

Ranbaxy

Ambuja Cement

R.Com

NTPC

Yes Bank

United Phospherous

Godawary Power

BOSCH

Ador Fontech

India Glycol

LUPIN Lab

Sabero Organic

Camlin

GMDC

Voltas

Blue Star

Sharp Ind.

All the above stocks can be long term investment buys

IMPRESSION

INDECISIVE

Thanks

Dr. Vasant Bele

All the views are personal, invest with caution and after

Consulting experts