Holding on to Hope

Dear Investors

It was one more ‘Flat’ day on Indian stock markets.  Market

Opened without much change, moved on to add 50/60 points

In Nifty and closed in between the day’s range of 5574-5525

At 5565

Most important thing was, volumes were very low and advances

Were marginally higher that declines. This indicates the ‘Indecisive’

 Nature of the market, it looks that both ‘Bulls and Bears’ are

‘Holding on to Hope’ for a Trigger

Levels for the day:

Open: 5547(18572)

High: 5574(18622)

Low: 5525(18454)

Close: 5565(18584)

Advance: Decline: 1611:1193

Turnover: 87000 cr.

What Next:

Hope for the break on any one side is the only answer.

It all depends on Multiplicity of Complex factors in and

Around us

. Immediate ones are

IIP Number today

Assembly election results on Friday

Crude oil prices

Commodity prices

And $ Index

Present valuations have factored the Raised rates, high

 Inflation

And

Below average earning season

Market is moving in a range, which is getting narrower

And sliding lower, On Tuesday it was a range of 100 Nifty

Points and today it was 60 Nifty points, volumes are diminishing

 It looks, as if, there is

‘Tightening’ of the rope, around the neck of, bears or bulls.

One more observation is that the ‘Range is Sliding Lower’

Few days back we were moving in 5969-5780, then 5780-5650

Now 5630-5515, there is a shift of range in downward direction,

Now what next? Is the real question, which will be answered?

In coming days, till that time go with technical levels.

Levels to watch

Upward: 5584(18650)/5603(18770)/5630(18820)

Downward:5502(18385)/5480(18310)/5380(18180)

Technical View:

Pivot at: 5554(18553)

Immediate resistance for Nifty is @ 5580 /5603 level

5606 is 200 Day Exponential Average, which is most important

Short term resistance, even if Nifty takes it out the real

Test will be at 5630/5650 range (Later is 50 DAM AND 150 Day

Exponential Average)

Up side to the Nifty will be capped at 5705/5756 level, as 5756

Is a 200 DMA. As long as Nifty trades below 200 DMA it is

Likely to slide down to the

Supports at

5505

5480/5420

5330 Levels, once Nifty is below 5330, which was close

On Feb.11, there will be panic selling, which may lead to the

Lower support at 5177.

As long as Nifty trades above 5330/5310 chances of ‘Resuming’

The up move will be alive

All this will take some grinding for some more days till that time

‘Consolidation’ ‘Side ways’ ‘Ranged’ will be name of the game.

COMMENTS

The range bound journey of market can ‘Break’ in either direction,

All depends on ‘Trigger’ in near future. To me there are hardly any

‘Positive Triggers’ TO TAKE MARKETS BEYOND 5700, even if

Nifty manages to move up to 5698, it is difficult to sustain those

Levels, there will be lot of fresh shorting and selling.

Change in global situation, like ‘fall in commodity prices,

Fall in Crude prices, Falling $Index will lead FII money flowing

Back to Emerging markets and India

Similarly ‘Good Monsoon’ Peaking of Rates, Falling Inflation

And Change in Governments attitude will help FII,HNI,DI and

Retailers to invest in market,

All this is not a ‘Day’s game it will be few weeks to months before

Those things reflect in economy and the stock markets till that time

‘Pain’ will persist.

Market Strategy

Wait and Watch

Let the event pass (IIP Numbers)

Till that time hold your positions (and breathe)

Let election results come out till that time try

To en cash your profits

Stock specific

It will be advised to trade (If at all some body wants to)

In

HUL

ITC

Clogate

GE Shipping

Hindalco

Sterlite

HCL Tech

Bharti

GMDC

Federal Bank

Polaris

Suzlon

Voltas

Blue Star

BOSCH

Sumeet Ind.

Camline

V-Guard

Gateway Distripark

Camphor and Allied

Arvind

IMPRESSION

GIVE UP (Speculating)

Thanks

Dr. Vasant Bele

All the views are personal, invest with caution, and

After consulting experts