Deadlock

Dear Investors

It was one more flat day on stock market. There was increased

Volatility as Nifty moved from 5592 to 5514 and back to 5541

During the trading session without much volumes and nearly

1:1 advance decline. Tight range and raised volatility indicate

Nervousness in the minds of traders and investors. There seems

To be a ‘Deadlock’ in ‘Bears and Bulls

Levels of the Day

Open: 5555(18564)

High: 5592(18698)

Low: 5514(18429)

Close: 5541(18512)

Advance: Decline: 1370:1410

What Next

Nothing has changed in last two trading sessions. Indices are

Moving in a small range with increased volatility. It looks

That traders and investors are waiting for some trigger for

Market to move in some direction.

5600 – 5500 is the range in which Nifty is moving for last

Two days. There is no change in fundamentals as well as

Technicals of the market, so till it breaks on one side it

Is better to wait and watch without much action.

Levels to Watch

Upward: 5590/5607/5698

Downward: 5506 /5480/5420

Technical View

Pivot at: 5549(18543)

Resistance at 5592/5607

Support at: 5506/5480

Important moving averages are

20 Day Exponential @5667

50 DMA @ 5650

200DMA @ 5756

200 Exponential @ 5607

Immediate resistance for an up move is at 5592, yesterdays

High and 5607 (200 EXP average) Nifty is retracing from

These levels for last few trading sessions, indicating selling

Pressure at every rise.

Even if Nifty moves above important resistances @ 5607 and

5675(50 Day Exponential Average), it will not sustain those levels

And cross 5700. Only if Nifty moves beyond 5739(20DMA) and close

Above 5755(200DMA) then and then one can say that market is

Out of woods and the up move will continue., any fall back from

Higher  level will have significant support at 5501/5420. This will be

A good level for Nifty to bounce back and test higher levels.

5400 will be an interim support if at all there is a negative news

From  Global front , commodity and Oil prices and or Inflation

Getting worst , then Nifty will be moving further down to test 5310

Levels. This was the level from where the current up move had

Started

Market strategy for Today

As there is no major change in situation traders and investors

Are advised to keep

Small and short term exposure

Keep booking profit at every higher level up to 5698/5700

Frsh shorts can be built at higher levels with a stop loss

At 5660

No long term buying is advised till a firm trend emerge

COMMENTS

Market is grinding in an ‘End to End’ (5600-5500) trading

During the day, it reaches higher END of the range, moves

Down to the other END of the range to close at a neutral zone.

Looking at the ‘Turnover and Volume’, Advance Decline, ratio

And other daily data, one can see that there is no buying

Either from FII,HNI,DI or retails. This situation indicates

Uncertainty and nervousness in market. Analysts name it

‘Range Bound’, Side ways, Consolidating ETC,

You can name it anything but one thing is certain, this is

A ‘Lull before Storm’, this type of market behavior leads

To an ‘Explosive’ out burst, may be on North side or South

To me

In a given ‘Fundamental and Technical’ situation and Global

Environment with oil, commodity prices etc. we are likely to

‘Explode’ South way (Downside)

There are hardly any ‘Positive’ triggers for Indian markets to

To pull  FII, HNI, DII  money in market,

So better to be vigilant than vibrant

  Stock specific

 HINDALCO

HUL

COLGATE

RANBAXY

BOSCH

Petronet LNG

GMDC

RAYMOND

V-Guard

Ador Fontech

Polaris

Strlite tech.

IMPRESSION

 IN a TIGHT  spot

Thanks

Dr. Vasant Bele

All the views are personal, trade with caution and after

Consulting experts