Dear Investors
Monday, market was in a ‘Pause’ mode after Friday’s ‘Pull Back ‘
Rally. Nifty moved in a small range of 50/60 points on either side
To close at, Friday’s closing at 5551. Advance decline ratio, volume
And turnover, all matched the ‘Painful Pause’ situation. There was
A ‘subconscious fear and nervousness’ at the end as ‘Expected
Follow on buying was not seen and turn over was very low.
Levels during the day:
Open: 5575(18628)
High: 5586(18643)
Low: 5502(18367)
Close: 5551(18528)
Advance: Decline: 1214:1521
What Next
Nothing has changed since Friday. Only thing is there was
A feeling of ‘Nervous calm’ after last few days ‘Turbulent’
Trading sessions. It is difficult to predict the turn which
Market will take within next few trading sessions, though the ‘Bias ‘
Is Negative’
Whether there is continuation of the
and how far it will take valuations.
Next few days may take markets in a side way trading,
unless there is
Some 'trigger' from World Markets, Commodity prices, $ Index movement
And Crude price Till that time best way is to follow technicals
LEVELS TO WATCH
Upward: 5580/ 5608/5680
Downside: 5502/5480/5420
Technical View
PIVOT AT: 5546(18512)
Nifty has a strong Resistance at 5590 and 5608 (200Day Exponential
Average)
Even if Nifty moves above 200 Day Expo average @5608,it will experience
Heavy selling at 5644(50DMA) and 5681(50 Day Expo.Average) leading
To a fall towards support levels
Any correction from 5650 /5680 will have a support at Pivotal Level
Of 5546 if breached then Nifty may slide down to sub 5500 levels to
Test 5480/5420 range. This will be the last hope for bulls and a great
5310 bottom on Feb. 11.
Keep watch on 5608 – 5480 as the ‘Line of action for ‘Bulls and Bears’
Respectively.
There will not be a change ‘In medium term ‘bear trend’, till Nifty is
Trading below 200 DMA @ 5755
Or
As long as Nifty is moving above 5310/5330 levels chances of
Getting back to the original ‘up trend’ remains intact.
5310 will act a 'sudden death' level for ‘Bulls’
STRETEGY FOR THE DAY
-Go long till Nifty is above 5480, keep stop loss of 5420
-Book part profits at 5650 and exit all longs at 5705.
-No fresh long trades between 5698 and 5750 range
-Aggressive long positions can be taken once Nifty closes
Above 5755 for two/three trading sessions with volume
Remark: In given situation this looks a ‘Remote possibility’
-Short positions should have stop loss at 5608
-5608-5680 should be treated ‘No trade zone’ for bears
.
-Above 5680 fresh shorts should have a stop loss at 5755.
-Existing short positions should be covered at 5420
While breach of 5310 should be used to create fresh shorts
With a stop at 5210/5177
Remark: It looks like a ‘strong possibility’
Caution:
No aggressive long positions, book early profits
Avoid investment buying or bottom fishing
Do not try averaging in falling values, best way is to
Exit and wait on side lines
The best ‘Option ‘is to be cash rich for ‘Future’ buying
COMMENTS
It looks that upside is ‘capped’ at 5659 while down
Side is ‘threatened’ to break in coming days.
There are no positive triggers for an upward move .
At the most, market will remain ‘Sideways’ with a possibility
Of breaking in downward direction.
All depends on what happens to
Global markets
Crude oil prices
Commodity prices (Copper, Aluminum, and Zinc, etc)
Dollar Index ($ Index)(Read details of $ INDEX at the end of this blog)
Next round of Rate hike by RBI
Post Assembly election results and their effects
(On government policies)
Monsoon
And remaining results
The fundamental situation is not ripe for a fresh round
Of ‘UP swing’ in stock markets,
Environment in India
To come here
Even technically it is suggesting
That we are headed to lower lows, only thing to be seen is
How much down
And how fast?
Technical analysts can predict values but to predict
Time is still a problem
So one has to be cautious in days to come before
Allocating their funds to equity market
Wait till a bottom is formed or move above 5755
(200 DMA)
Stock Specifics
It is advised to trade for smaller period of time.
Do not position your investments for longer time
Frame.
Those who are compulsive traders, (F&O, Short term
Or Positional traders) can trade with
HUL
ITC
COLGATE
TISCO
HINDALCO
STERLITE
HCL Tech.
RANBAXY
SUN PHARMA
LUPIN
Federal Mugal(Goetz)
Sintex
Polaris
NIIT Technology
Petronet LNG
Ramkey Infra
United phos.
Federal Bank
Yes Bank
Talwalkars
(Some of the recommendations have yielded good gains,
Like ,Ador fontech, Sumeet Ind.
And Allied, Yes Bank, SPIC, Arvind, GMDC etc)
IMPRESSION
LIMBO (a transitional state)
Thanks
Dr. Vasant Bele
all the views are personal, invest with caution and after consulting experts
Those who are interested read this about $ Index:
What Does Dollar Index Mean?
The US Dollar Index (USDX) is an index (or measure) of the value of the
. It is a measure of the value of the U.S.
The basket of currency and their weight is
It is a weighted geometric mean of the dollar's value
Compared only with
1)Euro (EUR), 57.6% weight
2)Japanese yen (JPY), 13.6% weight
3)Pound sterling (GBP), 11.9% weight
4)Canadian dollar (CAD), 9.1% weight
5)Swedish krona (SEK), 4.2% weight and
6)Swiss franc (CHF) 3.6% weight.
2)Japanese yen (JPY), 13.6% weight
3)Pound sterling (GBP), 11.9% weight
4)Canadian dollar (CAD), 9.1% weight
5)Swedish krona (SEK), 4.2% weight and
6)Swiss franc (CHF) 3.6% weight.
USDX(Dollar Index) started in March 1973, At its start,
the value of the
US Dollar Index was 100
This means that a value of 120 would suggest that the
U.S. dollar experienced a 20% increase in value over the
Time period. The high was 160 and the low was 70 in March 2008
Co relation to Commodity prices and Equity market:
The commodity prices, precious metal prices or Equity
Prices are linked to the strength or weakness in dollar
Like
A strong dollar has indicated weak commodities and
a weak dollar has given way to strong commodities historically.
Trade high, and when it rallies high stock markets trade lower
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