'Sedate' under pressure

Dear Investor

On Monday

Market opened with Nifty at 5493, plus 17 point and Sensex 54

Points at 18329. Nifty added few more points to move beyond 5500

During first few minutes and then all through the day remained

‘Sedate’ under pressure of profit booking, to close few points down.

Turnover was pathetic Mid caps did well though did well,

Large cap stocks and Index majors like, RIL, ONBC, and SBI along with

MandM,Bharti,HP, BP…..all were subdued and dropped few points

Here and there. At the end markets closed with minor losses in

Nifty and sensex.

Data for the Day:

Indices

Open: 5493(18319)

High: 5509(18380)

Low: 5458(18199)

Close: 5473(18232)

Advance: Decline: 1629:1150

Turnover: 70,000cr

What Next

Market has been showing high amount of disinterest since last few

 Sessions, there is no cash base buying from retail and DII. On the

 Contrary at every higher level is used to exit, this does not allow

Markets to move in upper direction. Retails have burnt their fingers in

 Last six months and now are not prepared to take risks till there is

Some ‘Fundamental Good News’ helping market to make a strong

Case for purchasing at a highly ‘attractive valuations’.

Earning season is coming to an end, on a disappointing note,

Elections are over, Global events also have been subdued,

There are no Triggers on either side. In such conditions,

Absence of buying and disinterest, market may remain in

A range or it will fall to lower levels in coming days

Today’s GDP number and Monsoons arrival in Keral may cause

Minor flutters but investors and traders are waiting for Bigger

Good news, in absence of which technicals will be of only

Help to trade in market

Levels to watch

UPWARD: 5503(18341) /5557(18522)/5606(18698)

DOWNWARD: 5420(18080)/5380(17930)/5330(17700)

Technical View

There is no change in technical levels

Pivot at: 5479(18270)

Immediate resistance will be around 5489(18321) which is 20 DMA

And 5509(18380) which Was Monday’s top and close to 20 Day expo.

Average at 5498(18344)

Nifty has to move decisively above 5536(18468) which is 30 Day Exp.

Average, without which there are chances of moving towards 5600

As long as Nifty is below 200 Day Exponential average @5585(18622)

And100 Day Exp. Average @ 5622(18747)it will not be out of ,Correction’

Phase.In absence of fresh buying markets may drift to lower support levels

Like 5440/5400/5380

Once 5330 is broken on closing basis markets will be headed towards

Fresh range, lower, of 5310-5220-5177

Market strategy

(Last few day's recommendations on stock
 like….

Ranbaxy

RIL
ICICI Bank

R.Com

L&T

Dabur

BOSCH

Sintex

HDIL

Hind Zinc

Ador Fontech

SPIC

Suryalata Spinning

Arvind

Sumeet Ind.

GMDC

Everest Kanto

Gateway Distripark

Camlin

Sabero organic

Tecpro Systems

 and many more have yielded good gains

I have been suggesting traders to book profits at every higher

Levels.)

For the day

No fresh shorts as long as the short term trend is up

Go long with a stop loss at 5380 and target of 5556

Treat 5556 -5605 as no trading zone

Existing shorts should have stop loss at 5530(closing basis)

And target at 5330

Fresh shorts can be created at 5556 or below 5380

Do not carry trades for next day, book early profits

No long term investments till next fall

Stock Specifies

RIL

ICICI Bank

Kotak Bank

Cipla

R.Com

NTPC

M&M

BOSCH (6900)

LIC Housing (224)

Sintes(189)

Ador Weilding(167)

V Guard (202)

Voltas(167)

Elecon Eng. (70)

Lovable Lineri(302)

Polaris (189)

Hexaware(64)

Suryavanshi Spinning (23)

Bartronic(60)

Nelcast(94)

Mundra Port(152)

Pipava Ship (82)

Himmat singka Sidek(33)

Hercules Hoist (232)

All these should have 3 to 5% down stop loss.

COMMENTS

GDP Number will be out today, it will cause temporary

Fluctuations in markets. As long as there is no fresh

Trigger for cash base buying markets are likely to stay

Docile. People are waiting for ‘Good news’ while most of

The ‘Bad News’ is discounted, Volume contraction is indicative

Of loss of trust in markets. As has been reputedly written, unless

‘Fundamentals’ improve and reflect in earnings of companies,

 Leading to FII and Retail participation the trend will not change

In a positive direction.

EGoM/ GDP /RBI meeting etc are not the real triggers, they create

Temporary ripples in markets, unless there is some drastic policy

Decisions on reforms front or FDI participation, Land acquisition,

Banking etc money will not flow back or there has to be some

Changes in Global Economy. All this will take some more time.

Till that markets will be in a ‘Turbulent’ state

Those who are long term investors can make small purchases

At every fall and stay invested for 12 to 18 months.

IMPRESSION

DIRECTIONLESS

Thanks

Dr Vasant Bele

All the views are personal, invest with caution and after 

Consulting experts