Glimmer (Sign Of Hope)

                                           
                                                               NEXT WEEK,

   (16th May to 20th May 2011)






                                            
Dear Investors

The week has been full of events leading to fluctuations in, market

Trades and  sentiments of the investors, it was full of activity, all over the

World, Like……………..

Fall in commodity prices

Fall in Gold, Silver

Rise in $ Index

Fall in crude

IIP Numbers

Inflation

Assembly elections

Below expectation results

EGOM postponement

FII selling

European problem

Airline strike

Indication of good monsoon

Growth downgrade

Results of assembly elections

And so on……………………….

All the news flow, some positives, some negatives made stock markets

Vacillate in ups and downs, Intraday wield swings, FII in and out, volumes

Fluctuating from day to day creating uncertainties, leading to a type

Of Nervous Sentiment in stock market which kept HNI and retail investors

Away from market leading to thin volumes and minimal participation of

Retails and mutual funds. Markets were mainly in a down trend but in that also there

Were hourly ups and downs which made trade difficult? Nifty though has

Managed to test 5600, had gone through heavy fluctuations from 5400

To 5600

On Friday after testing 5600, Nifty closed below 5550, with short covering

And some fresh buying, but week on week markets were in negative close.

The only 'Glimmer'(Sign of Hope)  was Nifty has closed above 5500, now it is to be

Seen how far bulls can manage to pull the markets, will it be possible to

Move above 5605 (200 Exponential average) and close there, all depends

On

Next weeks results of large cap stocks like

SBI

L&T

JP Associate

Tata Power

 ITC

EGOM Meet

Commodity price movements

Onset of Monsoon

Petrol and Diesel prices

Global market movement

$ Index

And so on………

Markets are getting through lot of turmoil, has not really ‘Consolidated’

In a range (higher or lower) for a substantial period, whatever ‘consolidation’,

Analysts say, has been there is not enough for the sustained moves to take place.

There is lot of eventuality, with no time to asses and digest it. This type of

Scenario is never good for ‘Healthy Investment Environment’ and that’s why markets

Are not getting settled at some level.

Market is grinding lower and lower under the weight of the ‘Bad News as

Compared to the ‘Good’,

 Volumes are more in ‘F and O’ than in cash market, there

Are more day trades than investment buys, People have lost confidence in

Carrying trades for next days

All this does not allow a proper ‘Consolidation ‘pattern to develop, it leads to

Volatile trades leading to uncertain environment for investment

Till  all this settles down, we may not see return of HNIs, Retail investors

And genuine Investor’s  market participation.

Till that time bear with the ‘Volatility’, Uncertainty’, Intraday swings, ‘Early morning’

Tops and ‘Closing bottoms’, as long as this is the state, we will be in a

‘One step forward and two steps backward’ like trades.

Till the time  there is no improvement in ‘Ground realities’ one has to follow the

Technical patterns

There were more days with low volumes than higher ones

There were more days with intraday fall than rise in Nifty

Sector wise also it was more of a down ward journey than up’

Though Nifty has closed in green on Friday, week on week it has

Lost some points

Nifty is trading below

200 DMA @ 5757

200 Day Exponential average @ 5604

Nifty is trading below

20 DMA @ 5693

50DMA@5659

100DMA @ 5664

But

Has closed above

5DMA @ 5539 by small margin

All this indicates that even though short term out look is positive

Medium term looks difficult

Unless Nifty moves above 200 Exponential at 5604 and above the

Resistance level of 5630 market will not be out of woods

 Below 200 DMA @ 5757 medium term trend looks down.

The 20 Day Exponential average (5632) has dropped below

50 Day Exponential average (5659), this is a ‘Negative sign’

And if it drops below 200 Day exponential (5604) in coming days

Market will be in ‘Bear zone’

Nifty is moving in lower ranges and has not sustained 5600 after going

Down to test vital support at 5400

Next move will be most important

If Nifty breaks below 5472 (Last weeks closing low) or 5414 intra day low

Then it will head towards 5330 which was low on Feb. 11

Traders and Investors should watch 5330 as a vital level, if not sustained

In coming weeks then we are headed for bigger ‘Down Move’ towards

5000,

 All depends on.

$Index, FII Flow, Commodity prices, Crude prices, Gold and Silver prices

Governments stand on Oil price de regulation, FDI in retail, Capex and

Results of ‘Corporate Majors’

Let us hope we will be out of troubled waters without scratch till then…..

Happy Trading

Thanks

Dr. Vasant Bele 

All the views are personal , Trade with caution and after consulting 

experts 
Read markets for Monday as a separate blog