Dear Investors
It was quite volatile trading session today and both the
benchmark indices closed flat. Bears tried to create a
panic situation by hammering Nifty around 5850 ,but fresh
buying at lower levels and intra day short covering by bears
lifted Nifty back to 5900 keeping hopes of 6000 alive
Tuesday’s Levels
Nifty: Open: 5842/High: 5918/Low; 5833/Close: 5908
Sensex: Open; 19473/High: 19729/Low: 19449/Close; 19701
What Next:
For tomorrow (6th April) if indices trade convincingly above
19720 / 5,918 levels then they are likely to test
19,800-19,900 / 5,950-5,990. On the downside,
19,572 - 19,450 / 5,880 - 5,803 are the crucial support
Levels for the indices. Any breach below these levels would
Intensify the selling pressure.
All depends on how far FIIs are able to carry this rally
And what happens to the earning season, though Bull’s
Have ignored rising crude prices and fuelled the rally
With liquidity from FII it has to be seen how far we can
Move on weak legs.
Technical View
As written in Weekly Blog post, 5889 is 68.8% retracement
Of 6275-5310, we have crossed it, the next level of stiff resistance
Will be at 78%retracement approximately at and around 5998/6003,
This may prove to be the cap of this rally
Pivot for Nifty: 5897
R1 (First resistance) @ 5940(19796)
R2 (Second resistance) @ 5970 (19906)
R3 (Third resistance) @ 6013 (20043)
Significance
Though Nifty has closed above 5900 it is facing resistance
at and above 5900, there is selling pressure at higher level
Any close above R1 (5940) will take Nifty above 6000 level
So all long positions can be carried above the Pivot level
Of 5897 with a stop at Tuesday’s low at 5833.
Fresh shorts can be built at and above R2/R3 levels with a stop at
6045
S1 (First support) @ 5867 (19549)
S2 (Second support) @ 5824 (19412)
S3 (Third support) @ 5794(19302)
Significance
Any close below S2 (5824) CAN BE LOOKED UP ON AS
AN INDICATION OF FURTHER DOWN MOVE,
long positions should be booked or fresh shorts can be created.
VXI (Volatility Index)
Pivot at: 19.82
R2:20.80/R2:21.70/R3:22.60
S1:18.9/s2:17.8/S3:17.01
Significance
There is remarkable reduction in VXI indicating confidence
In the up move. As long as we are at and around 20, one can
Carry on maintaining long bias.
DMA (Day moving average)
5 DMA @ 5818(19395) (Exp. @ 5845)
10 DMA @ 5685(18928)
30 DMA@ 5530 (18441)
50 DMA @ 5506(18368)
100 DMA @ 5722 (19078) (Exp@5646)
200 DMA @ 5704(19003)
5 Day Exponential @ 5845 (19477)
30 Day Exp. @ 5615(18715)
50 Day Exp. @ 5609(18702)
100 Day Exp. @ 5646(18823)
200 Day Exp. @ 5597(18662)
Significance
5Day Exp @ 5845 is the immediate support for Nifty, any close
Below it will have to be looked up on as a temporary halting
Of the ongoing ‘Rally’. Fresh buying can be done at this level
With a stop loss at 5DMA @ 5818
Close below 100 DMA @ 5722 will give first indication of rally
Coming to an end , fresh down trend can have support for
Nifty at lower levels of 200 DMA @ 5704/5646.(100 Day Exp.)
Keep Nifty values to decide positioning in individual stocks.
COMMENTS
During today’s trade markets, Nifty tried to correct
Few times but fresh buying lifted it to the levels above
5880/5900
This signifies that there are buyers at smallest correction
It’s definitely a strong signal but it may prove to be ‘Bear Trap’
In coming days.
It’s obvious that most retail as well as institutional investors
Have missed the rally from 5310 to 5900, so every time
market corrects these traders and investors enter the market to
lift Nifty to higher levels, this is a sign of ‘Complacency’
Regarding the trend. One has to understand reasoning behind
the present rally, It is definitely a ‘Liquidity Driven’ one.
Here I would like to remind, the Cricket Add…on TV
“Jab tak balla chal raha hai to that hai,
agar ball ruk gaya
Same can be said about liquidity, as long as FII flow is …………so,.
The genuine investors or positional traders should try to
Evaluate the current valuation of market like…….
Liquidity vs. Crude vs. earning, are they realistic?
Last two factors are not there in present valuations
so all the medium and long term Investors are advised to
‘Wait till right prices’ to enter the market, till that time wait
For the ‘pull back’ and then enter
As long as liquidity is powering, markets may show levels
Of 5926/5970/6003, once it dries then…….
So be cautious and keep appropriate stop loss for your
Positions and avoid entering at higher levels
Stock Specific
Ranbaxy
Cipla
Biocon
SAIL
Sterlite
Ashok Leyland
SUZLON
JP Associate
Cairn
Rel. Comm
Rel. Infra
Himatsingka Siedek @ 39 Ramkey Infra @294
GMDC 2139 IVRCL Infra @83
Sterlite Tech@62
Tutis Tech @23
Vijaya bank @88
IMPRESSION
Threatening Heighs
Thanks
Dr. Vasant Bele
All the views are personal, invest after consulting experts
I and my relations may be interested in stocks suggested
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