Market for 15th April 11
Dear Investors
On Wednesday markets opened with a gap down. Nifty after opening
Went down to the important support at 5730, in next few minutes it
bounced back in green and went on adding till the end. Nifty closed
above 5900 at 5911. There was a broad base rally secondary to
short covering and some fresh buying. It was mainly a short covering
rally as traders never wanted to carry positions for next trading session
, Friday, as it was a day of Infosys results.
Levels on Wednesday
Nifty: Open: 5747, High: 5923, Low: 5735, Close: 5911
Sensex: Open: 19187, High: 19737, Low: 19101, Close: 19696
What Next:
Friday is the day when tech major Infosys will be declaring its results
There was heavy built up in technology sector . Any positive surprise
May lead to a fresh rally.
Nifty has closed above 5900 a major resistance level, it has to be seen
Whether it takes away 5959 on closing basis. It is expected to be a
Highly volatile day On downside immediate support is at 5880/5840.
Watch the levels
RESISTANCE: Nifty has first resistance close to the level of 5950 &
above this level the next resistance is seen near the 6003 mark
SUPPORT: Nifty has first support close to the level of 5840, if not
Sustained then at 5750 & below this level the next support is seen
near 5695 mark.
.
Technical View
Pivot: 5856 (19511)
R1 (First resistance) @ 5977 (19921)
R2 (Second resistance) @ 6044 (20147)
R3 (Third resistance) @ 6165 (20557)
S1 (First support) @ 5789 (19285)
S2 (Second support) @ 5668 (18875)
S3 (Third support) @ 5601 (18649)
Significance
Watch important levels like, resistance at R1 (5977), Once
Nifty closes above it then we are for a next range, 6003/6030
And 6115.
Down move should stop at S1 (5789), fresh buying can be
Done as long as Nifty holds 5750 below which we are likely
To move down to 5666(S2)
VXI (Volatility Index)
Pivot @ 20.69
Significance
Vix closed in the Red. This could mean that volatility may drop in
The coming days. Now whether this volatility transforms into a bull
Or a bear is difficult to ascertain just by looking at the vix but ideally
VIX moves in the opposite direction of Nifty. Which means if vix
Closed in Red, there are higher chances for nifty to rally/move up
In the coming days.
DMAs
5 DMA @5863 (19520)
10 DMA @ 5840 (19458)
20 DMA @5665 (18864)
50 DMA @ 5528 (18436)
100 DMA @ 5708 (19036)
200 DMA @ 5718 (19048)
EMAs (Exponential moving averages)
5 EMA @ 5860 (19209)
20 EMA @ 5736 (18655)
100 EMA @ 5666 (18887)
Significance
Nifty clearly closed above 10 Day Simple Moving Average (5840)
In the Short term one can expect higher moves in Nifty.
Nifty clearly closed above 20 Day Simple Moving Average (5665).
In the Medium term one can expect higher moves in Nifty. 20 DMA
is a significant milestone. Anything that is above this level is likely to
continue the positive momentum. Technically Nifty will move higher
from here on. A breach of this level will potentially end the current
Move/rally.
Nifty clearly closed above 50 Day Simple Moving Average (5528).
In the Long term one can expect higher moves in
Nifty. 50 DMA is considered to be the most important Moving average
and anything above that is usually good for a ‘buy-the-dip’ theory.
Meaning, any correction is usually considered a buying opportunity.
Prices may fluctuate, but the trend continues to be higher.
100 DMA(5708) as well as 100EMA(5666) are very significant as
Far as support To the on going rally is concerned, any close below one
Of them will signify termination of the present up move.
Comments
Wednesday's rally was clearly not driven by FII buying shares in cash
or spot market. According to provisional NSE data, FII bought only
worth Rs 25 croer shares against their net purchases of 6600 cr.
in this month. This indicates that the rise was not due to fresh flow.
It was a panic short covering which led to indices moving higher.
Best advice is ‘Enjoy the party till the music is on’. Do not short
Actively,’ Book part profits at every higher levels. And buy the dips’
This is the way in which one can play volatility. It looks like to be
A market of ‘Smart traders’.
The manner of ‘u’ turn from early trading fall was surprising,
There was no FII buying
HNI and Retail individuals are buyers at 5730, early
Morning volume was shocking, it was three times the
Previous day’s volume, shorts created for last few days
On the weak global markets and crude price movements
And early morning ‘Gap down’ open were caught on a
‘Wrong foot’ and ‘trapped’ by the ‘Top gear’ rally leading
To a panic covering.
Traders and investors should wait for infosys results
Before making fresh commitments. Any positive surprise
From Infosys will take Nifty to 5950/6000 levels.
All longs can booked at that level and a neutral position
Maintained till Nifty closes above 5990, one can buy fresh
After that for next move to 6030/6115.
If this rally, for some reasons, fizzles out, Nifty may move
Down to 5770 levels. So do not keep off the screen.
Stock specific
L&T
ICICI Bank
M&M
Sterlite
ITC
Dabur
Colgate
Sterlite Tech @66(S@58 Tgt.78)
G S Auto @ 27 (Sl 24, Tgt 36)
Banco Product@84 (Sl@78,Tgt 102)
IDBI Bank @148(Sl @142, Tgt 158)
Central Bank@ 146(Sl 138 Tgt 158)
NIIT Tech @ 188( Sl @182, Tgt 202)
Polaris
REC
Dish TV
Tutis Tech
Ador wielding
Artson ENG.
All the above stocks can be converted in long term investments
And added at all dips
IMPRESSION
SURPRISED and SHOCKED
Thanks
Dr. Vasant Bele
All the views are personal , Invest after consulting experts
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