(in) TOP GEAR (need hand break)

Dear investors

After days pause Indian stock market started its journey

To the ‘Expected Destination’ of 6000. Nifty opened with

A small gap and moved up to 5900 level. There was a

Broad base buying and volumes were good. It was good

Amount of FII flows and strong global cues which fueled

To keep market above important level of 5900 at the

End

Levels on Monday

Nifty: Open: 5842 / High: 5918/Low: 5833 /Close: 5908

Sensex: Open: 19473 / High: 19729/Low: 19449? Close: 19701

What Next

Market is crossing important mile stones one after another

in its journey to 6000. Today Nifty crossed 5900 and closed

Above that.  In doing so market participants have neglected

High crude prices and fear of incoming result season. Most

Heartening thing for last few days was the participation of

 Broader market. There seems to be buying in all the sectors

Mainly ‘over sold’ ones

It seems that market participants have decided to take it to

The magic figure of 6000 and above. Investors and traders

 Should take next few points rally with caution and try to keep

Away from fresh buying. It is better to wait , watch and then

 Proceed.

Levels to watch:

Upward: 5930(19800)/5977(19930)/6020(20060)

Downward: 5880(19620)/5809(19450)/5770(19201)

Technical View:

Pivot for Nifty: 5886(19626)

R1 (First resistance) @ 5939(Sx.19803)

R2 (Second resistance) @ 5971(Sx.19906)

R3 (Third resistance) @ 6024(Sx.20083)

Significance

Pivot at 5886 will the most important level to be watched,

 In near term. 
Market has moved sharply and any pause

Below pivot should indicate a move towards correction
.

To keep upward journey intact Nifty has to cross and close

Above R2 (5971)
 .

All long traders and those who have created investments

At lower levels should book part profits at R3 (6024) and

Around that.

It is advised not to create short positions unless Nifty

Moves below 5880 on closing basis , keep stop loss

For shorts at 5939.

S1 (First support) @ 5854(Sx.19523)

S2 (Second support) @ 5801(Sx.19346)

S3 (Third support) @ 5769(Sex19243)

Significance

Fresh longs can be created if, Nifty corrects up to

S2 (5801) with a stop at S3(5769).

All long positions should have a stop loss at and

Below S3(5769) , close below S3 will be the first

Significant indication of a pause in the rally, one

Should wait for further moves before making any positions

Long or short.

VXI(Volatility Index)

Pivot at: 20.34

R1:20.78/R2:21.50/R3:21.94

Significance:

As stated in last few posts, stable VXI on lower side is

A strong indication of an ‘Up move’ in market.

There is reduction in volatility indicative og the

Cofidance of traders , speculators and investors

In on going trend.

DMAs(Day moving average)

5DMA@ 5774(19249)

10DMA @5630(18741)

30DMA @ 5515 (18391)

50DMA @ 5503(18355)

100DMA @ 5726(19091)

200DMA @ 5701(18994)

5 Day Exp @5812 (19373)

100 Day Exp. @ 5641(18807)

200Day Exp @ 5595(18655)

Significance

Watch for 5 Day Exponential Average at 5812, this will be the

First signal for correction

100 Day average(5726) should be used at level to start fres

Buying in markets

Close below 200DMA @ 5701 will signify end to the ongoing

Rally

Current up move should have a stop at 5774(5DMA) and

100Day Exp @ 5641

COMMENTS

This market has moved in an upward trajectory on the support of

Liquidity and speculation,  with crude at 119 $/barrel and

Earning season ahead (with the possibility of downgrade), 

and Likely Increase in Interest rates, players should exercise 
caution in adding longs at higher levels

 Present  up move in market like to be a perfect

‘Technical breakout’ from  'Resilience’ out of the range,

5480-5603 in an upward fashion, it has dragged every investor,

Who was sitting on the side lines, waiting for a correction

With cash in hands, the wide spread rally is a perfect example of

 ‘Liquidity, Retail, Speculative drive in the markets.

Those who have missed the train should not try now, because

It looks too ‘Hot’ a situation, though markets may move few 100

Points, but then the probability of falling down in near future

Increases, because the rise looks like to be too steep and

 Pathological to take a chance

So wait to enter; let market get corrected to the realistic levels of

5770/5803, let it consolidate for some time, let the effect of

Results and inflation ware off and then enter, otherwise you will

Burn your fingers

 I Will advise not to enter at 5950 plus levels , try to take at least

Some profits and wait with cash in hand

Stock Specific

ICICI Bank

M&M

ITC

SAIL

Sterlite

Sesa goa

Reliance Infra

Power grid @ 106

Selen Exploration 

Mundra port @142

GVK Power @28

Lovable Lingeri @ 280

Ester Ind @ 44

Advani oerlicon @176

Tutis Tech @22

Kalpena Ind @ 87

Sujana Tower @ 33

Artson Eng. @54

Celestial Lab@31

Banco Product @76

ACE @ 46

Hexaware @70

Polaris @ 188

Sterlite Tech @ 62

All positions in above stocks should be long term

Or at least for next two weeks

IMPRESSION

NEED TO RE THINK BEFORE ENTRY

Thanks

Dr. Vasant Bele

All the views are personal, invest after consulting experts

I and my relations may have interest in stocks advised