Dear Investors
On the back of good global markets Nifty opened in green
And continued to move up to 5900(5892). As trading advance
Volatility pulled Nifty down to the support level of 5800(5819)
To recover at the end at 5833.
Weakness was across the sectors, mainly Cap goods, Tech,
RIL. And ICICI Bank. It was SBI and ONGC which helped Nifty
To remain above 5800.
Levels during the day
Nifty: Open: 5884 /High: 5892 /Low: 5819 / Close: 5833
Sensex: Open: 19610 /High: 19633 / Low: 19412 /Close: 19448
Advance: Decline 1317:1558
Volume: 194,388 Cr.
What Next
Today being the day of expiry, it is expected that there will be wield
Movements in Nifty. Nifty has closed above 5800 support,
It is finding difficult to cross the resistance of 5920. Unless the
Expiry is over and result season ends market may not find a
True direction, till that time traders and speculators have to go
By strict stop loss according to technical levels because we are
in a 'Battle Zone'of 5950/5690
Levels to Watch
Upward: 5877(19583) /5920(19718)/5950(19804)
Downward: 5804(19362) /5770(19276)/5720(19140)
Technical View
On going consolidation or a range move has got a resistance
And support level of 5959 / 5700.
Nifty is facing resistance at a higher level of 5920 and then at
5959. Once Nifty closes above 5959 it will test 6003/ 6050
Levels, from given movements in last few weeks and the
Strength shown at every fall Nifty is headed to 6003/6050
Range. It is the time which can not be predicted.
Nifty has not broken 5700 on down side during last few falls
Indicative of a strong support, unless it breaks down to 5660
On closing basis it will bounce to test the higher levels
Watch for the resistance at 5920 and support at 5720/5770
During the day.
VXI(Volatility Index)
Pivot at: 21.32
Today being the day of expiry VXI will take a center stage.
Markets may show large swings on either side.
DMAs(Day moving averages)
Nifty is above all the short and long term moving averages.
This indicates that the medium term trend is definitely up.
Short term moves depend on what happens to various events
During the day and coming few trading sessions.
Nifty has a strong support at 20DMA at 5830, and 20 Day
Exponential average at 5794. To maintain current up move
In near-term Nifty should remain above 200DMA at 5743.
As long as we are above 100DMA 5704 and 150 Day
Exponential average at 5664, there is no threat to the
On going rally.
Watch for
20Day Expo. @ 5794
100DMA @ 5704
100 Day Expo @ 5692
200DMA@ 5743
As an important guiding levels during next few trading
Sessions.
COMMENTS
Market moves during last few trading sessions is showing
Strength. Nifty is bouncing from the lower levels to test
The all important resistance at 5950.
It all depends on what happens to the remaining result
Season , Rollover and RBI moves on 3rd May.
And Federal chairman’s news conferance
Any surprises(Positive or Negative) from these will
break Nifty on either side of the range
Unless events are out of the way it is difficult to predict
The direction of break out.
Keep strict stop loss at every level or wait to take firm
Positions till clouds are clear.
Long term investors can buy at all dips in Mid cap
Banks, Mid cap IT and Mid cap Pharma companies.
Stock Specific
HUL @ 284
ITC @ 192
ICICI Bank
Hindalco@ 219
Crompton@ 282
M&M @ 771
IDEA @ 68
Praj @ 83
Dish TV @ 68
Sintex @ 173
Blue Star @ 374
SCI @ 114
GATI @ 72
Ador Weilding @ 182
Allahabad Bank @219
Federal Bank @ 436
BGR Energy @ 560
Federal Mugal @ 249
Last few calls of
BOSCH
Ador fontec
Celestial Lab
GATI
Polaris
Summet Industries
Arvind
EMCO
GMDC
Federal Mugal
Hexaware
Bharti
Celestial Lab
Sharp Ind.
Have given good returns, one should carry all
Those positions as long as market is in up move.
Book part profits at first sign of correction(Nifty 5660)
And re-enter in same counters at lower levels (5550).
IMPRESSION.
At the cross roads
Thanks
Dr. Vasant Bele
All the views are personal, Invest after consulting experts
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