Market for Next week(4/4/11 TO 9/4/11)
India
India
Dear Investors
It was a week of ‘great events’ in and around India
A dream runof 8 consecutive sessions for Indian Markets
And a ‘Dream Becoming a Reality’ for Indian cricket team
Kept Indian Investors and Indian cricket fans on their toes,
And in a ‘state of euphoria’ for last few weeks
Last Friday markets closed in a red, after a long rally
Indices went from strength to strength in last few weeks
Markets gained
3% Week on week
5.5% Month on Month
10% for the year……
FII Bought worth 8400 cr. Equities
There was wide spread rally in mid and small caps at the end
Of the week
Major indices are above all important Moving
Averages (5/20/50/200)
Volatility is getting less
What Next
All facts mentioned above are indicative of some stability
in market and confidence in investor's mind .
Now is to see how far we move towards the top or we
Correct to certain lower levels and start moving again
(Which is likely, and a healthy, possibility)
For that keep watch on,
Technical levels and Events around the stock markets
Watch the levels
Friday’s levels were:
Nifty: High: 5869/Low: 5810/Close: 5826
Sensex: High: 19562/ Low: 19382/ Close; 19420
Technically
Nifty has a resistance at 5880(Sensex:19650) levels, where selling
Pressure may bring it down to the immediate support
At 200 DMA 5699(Sensex:18985)
If Nifty is able to cross 5889(sensex19650)we will be facing
Resistance at 5904/5919/5969(sensex: 19650, 19840, 2020)
Support for the correction is at 5801/5720/5690(19347, 19167,18900)
Any close below 5636(19105) will be a first signal of rally coming
To an end
Keep watch on
5DMA @ 5739(sensex:19123) and 100 Day Exponential average
At 5636(sensex: 18790), this will be a guide for short term move
During next week
COMMENTS
The similarity in these two (world cup and Stock market)events
Was alarming one…….
Indian stock markets have gone through a number of bad events
Like.......
Political Turmoil in country
Scams
PM Facing allegations from opposite party
Agitations in Parliament
2G/3G problems
Postponement of Disinvestment program
Election in 5 states
Rising Inflation and Interest rates
Crude going through roofs
Global turmoil in Middle east and Europe
And
Most shocking Tsunami and Earth Quake in Japan
Giving nuclear threat to human species
All these kept Investors all over the world Guessing’
What next?
For Indian cricket team and world cup
Allegations of match fixing,
Injuries to players from different teams
Bad form of few of the Indian players like Yuvraj/Dhoni/Bhajji
Kolkatt not prepared as a venue
Tough draws for Indian team
Going through difficult situations from first encounter with Bangla desh
Draw with England
Return ‘from no where’ by Pakistan
Relatively weak bowling attack of the Indian team
Terrorist threats to the world cup
And
Loosing toss in final match
All these things kept ‘Cricket lovers and Market player’ on the
‘Edges’ for last so many days/weeks
But there was something different in the mind of
Destiny
As World cup proceeded and bad news on Stock market started
Getting diluted, both started moving in different territory,
levels of 200 DMA, 50 DMA,
Indian tem entered in Finals by beating ‘Arch Rival’
PAK, Market Moved above 5800 and marched towards
5900, both cricket fans and Investors had a sigh of relief,
Started breathing freely and took a halt after a long Battle
Now India
We have to see if markets cross the 6000
And gift a surprise to the bulls???????
From all these things, one can say, India
An ‘Astrological’ super Phase,
I am not a reader of horoscope, but all the events suggest
That India
(Only Bejon Daroowala Can tell us about India
But ..........
It may be a time to rest, (As Indian Team will be) Look back,
Think about Fundamentals and Technical, look for the Industrial
Growth, Inflation, Exports and all, get some profit from the
Table (As Indian team will be…) and do a home work before
next move
So this may be a time to sit a while, re- look at fundamentals,
Monsoon, Oil and Global situation before starting the fresh up
Move
Keep in mind that
We might come down to some support levels and or some realistic
Levels , consolidate and then move forward
Take a look at Fundamental and Technical data
And have some definite strategy before moving forward
Is the ‘mantra’
Fundamentally
Look for
Local Factors like
Q4 Result season
$ and Rupee movement
Inflation and Interest rates
Disinvestment program
Result of the state Elections for UPA/Cong.
Proceedings of the 2G Scam
And
RBI policy, growth forecast, borrowing by Indian Govt. etc
And
The most important will be ‘Monsoon’
Globally,
US Data
$ Against all the currencies (Specially Rupee)
Crude Prices
Commodity Prices
Geo political state in Middle East
EURO Zone interest rates, defaulting nations and their rating
US Consumer data/ Job data etc
Technically keep watch on
FII Flows
DII selling amount
Advance Decline
F&O Data, April roll over positions
Support and Resistance levels
Moving averages
Volatility In markets
All these factors will decide further course of stock markets so
Let us move with caution and patience.
Stock /Sector specifics
Banks & Financials :(PNB,ICICI Bank, Yes Bank, Federal Bk.)
IT (TCS, HCL Tech., Hexaware, Polaris, NIIT Tech,Geometric)
Pharma:(Biocon, Lupin Ranbaxy, Orchid)
AUTOS: TELCO, Ashok Leyland, TVS scooter
FMCG(HUL, Dabur)
METALS: (TISCO, Bhushan Steel, Sterlite)
MINING:(NMDC,GMDC)
OIL and GAS:(RIL,ONGC, Petronet, Indraprastha Gas)
TEXTILE: (Raymond, Skumar, Arvind, Suryalat spinning)
Engineering And Cap Goods ;(l&t, Punj Lloyed, AEC Eng
Elecon, Artson Eng,
Costruction &Infrastructure:
(IRB, GMR, LANCO,Ramkey Infra, HDILIndiabull Real.)
Health care: Fortis, Piramal Life, Sunpharma recent adv.
Others
Tilaknagar Industries, Globus spirit,
KSK Energy, Nelcast, Celestial Lab,Praj
.V-Guard, Blue star, Geodesic,
All the buying should be done (Long term) in small parts at
Every correction .
IMPRESSION
WILL CORRECT BEFORE MOVING AHEAD
Read market for Monday as a separate article
Thanks
Dr. Vasant Bele
All the views are personal, invest after consulting experts
I and my relations may have positions in stocks mentioned
In this article
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