Dear Investors
The key benchmark indices ended lower in choppy trade,
Extending last two day’s trend. High oil prices, fear of
Increase in inflation and rise in interest rate kept sentiment
Subdued. While large caps took rest broad market continued
In strength. Market breadth was strong but volumes were low.
Thursday’s levels
Nifty: Open: 5888/High: 5906/Low: 5866/Close: 5885
Sensex: Open: 19620/High: 19665/Low: 19537/Close: 19591
What Next?
Considering the days market moves (last two/three days)
It looks that Nifty may get in to a shallow correction till
Result season is over.
All depends on global liquidity, global markets, earning
Season, political situation and so on. Though under tone
is still positive……..
Short term upside seems to be capped at 5950 level
While we may slowly drift down to 5760/5800 level.
It has to be seen what comes first
Technical View
Chart of the Nifty is poised in a situation that…………….
We might see a huge breakout or a big crack in
Coming days. Only time can tell us what is in store.
A weekly close above 5950, can take us to a fresh
Large moves and a fall below 5825 will take Nifty
100/150 points down
Pivot at: Nifty: 5885(19597)
R1 (First resistance) @ 5905(19658)
R2 (Second resistance) @ 5925(19725)
R3 (Third resistance) @ 5945(19786)
Significance
Nifty is facing stiff resistance at R1 (5905). R3 will be
Crucial level for continuation of the rally
Once Nifty closes above 5945/5950 then it can
Reach and take out 6000/6030 levels
S1 (First support) @ 5865(19530)
S2 (Second support) @ 5845(19469)
S3 (Third support) @ 5825(19402)
Significance
Nifty is taking support at S1 (5865), 5850,
And bouncing back to test 5900 levels.
S3 will be important, as break below it
Will open the doors for a short term
Correction leading to a fall up to 5760
VXI (Volatility Index)
Pivot at: 20.36
R1:20.75/R2:21.18/R3:21.57
S1:19.93/S2:19.54/S3:19.11
Significance
There will be increased volatility as we are at the
End of the week and next week is truncated one.
All this may cause lot of swings in day trades
DMAs(Day moving average)
5 DMA @ 5874(19573)
10 DMA @ 5775(19238)
20DMA @ 5613(18695)
100DMA @ 5715(19057)
150 DMA @ 5814(19369)
200DMA @ 5710(19022)
Exponential Moving Averages (EMA)
5 EMA @ 5869(19545)
10 EMA @ 5799 (19317)
100 EMA @ 5655 (18852)
Significance
Day moving averages are trend deciders.
Any close below 5 EMA (5869) will be significant
For a short term trend.
10 Day EMA (5799) and 150 Day Simple average (5814)
are very critical in maintaining the rally .
Close below 5814 will lead to a fall up to 10DMA (5775)
If not sustained Nifty may fall back to the next support
at 200 DMA @ 5710
COMMENTS
Daily market moves are confusing, there is some slow
Down in FII flows and DII selling is continued, that is the
Reason why Nifty is not making any decisive move
Traders and Investors should not create large
Positions on either side. Depending on trigger, markets may
Drift down in short to medium term period. Nifty is likely
To move 100-150 points on either side.
One should watch technical supports and resistance levels
As a guide to movements of indices
If Nifty closes below 5850 with volume for two trading
Sessions it might slip back to the all important level of
5760.( 100DMA @ 5715)
For on going rally to continue towards higher levels of
6000 plus, Nifty has to close above 5950/5980 mark.
Once Nifty is above 5950 one can expect levels of
6050/6115.
All depends on
Earning season of Industrials
Global market conditions
Political situation in DELHI
Agitation started by Mr. Anna Hazare
Election results
FII flows etc.
All the market participants should exercise extreme caution
While creating positions on either side. It is better to be off
The screen for few trading sessions than to get in to highly
Unpredictable situation.
Long term investors can use all the big falls (if any) to buy
Fundamentally strong stocks in front line as well as mid caps.
Try to pick beaten down mid caps from Infra/ Cap. Goods,
Pharma and banking sectors, as long term investments
Traders should keep stop losses for daily trades and should
Avoid carrying trades for next day
All profitable trades should be partially booked
Stock Specific
RIL
CANARA BANK
Rel. Cap
Rel.Infra
GAIL
Kotak Bank
Sell TISCO below 635(Stop loss @ 645, Target@ 620/605)
Sell HINDALCO below 213 (Stop loss @219, Target@202/196)
(Follow stop loss strictly)
Mid cap
PFC @ 258 /SL @ 248/TG @ 272/278)
SINTEX Ind.
GMDC @ 141 (SL @ 133, TG@ 148/155)
GVK @29 (SL@ 28, TG@ 34,36)
RADICO KHAITAN @ 144(SL@ 136 TG@ 149/155)
POLARIS @207(SL @ 196 TG@ 219/228)
Tutis tech @25 (Target 32)
Hercules Hoist@ 260) Target 288/302)
GS Auto @ 27
Ador Weilding @ 184
Camphor and Allied @205
IMPRESSION
CRUCIAL PERIOD, BE ALERT
Thanks
Dr. Vasant Bele
All the views are personal, invest after consulting experts
I and my relations may be interested in stocks suggested
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