Dear Investors
On Thursday markets opened strong due to good global cues and
Possibility of good earnings by, TCS and RIL. Nifty moved above 5900 after
Opening at 5880. Intra day Nifty corrected on some disappointment from
TCS results but regained the losses to close above 5880 at 5884, an
Important resistance level (Read previous blog)
Though volume was good advance decline ratio was not on positive side.
It was Friday’s holiday which compelled traders to wind positions.
Thursday’s Levels
Nifty: Open: 5882 / High: 5912 / Low: 5864 / Close: 5884
Sensex: Open: 19582 /High: 19695/ Low: 19530 /Close: 19602
What Next:
Market is moving in upper band fpr last three trading sessions.
It was strong global cues and good earning by some of the
Heavy weights added strength to bulls .
RIL has declared the results after market closing and
Axis bank on Friday. Though results of RIL were not to
The expectations of street Axis Bank gave a strong performance.
There is some good news regarding RIL gas discovery; Global
Markets have closed in green; all this will give a positive or flat
Opening on Monday.
Nifty is trading at an ‘Upper end’ of the ‘range’ 5700-5959,
Nifty has retraced from 5950 4/5 times to the support at 5700.
It has to be seen what happens during next week. This week
Is full of Global and Local events along with ‘Expiry’ on 29th.
All this suggests that there will be a ‘high volatility’.and
Choppy trades
It looks that Nifty will move towards 5920 level and a push by
Some good results from index heavy weights may take it to 5950.
It looks difficult to move beyond that, unless some positive
Global or local event occurs.
The immediate support for Nifty is at 5831 and then at 5813.
Close below 5800 will take Nifty back to 5720 support zone.
There will be lot of swings leading to intra day price fluctuations.
Levels to Watch:
Upward: 5909 / 5959/5998
Downward: 5837/5800/5750
Technical View
Pivot at: 5886(19609)
Nifty has closed at an important support, 5884, now it has a
Stiff resistance at 5909(R1) and 5957(r3), slide from these levels
Will have an immediate support at 5861(S1) and 5813(S3).
Fall below S3 (5813) will open the possibility of testing the
Bottom of the range at 5700/5690.
Long traders are advised to keep 5813 as stop loss and carry
Positions up to 5950, where at least some profit booking is advised.
While short traders are advised to refrain from adding new shorts
Till Nifty moves above 5931 or Slides back to 5813 level
All existing shorts should have a stop loss at 5909
VXI (Volatility Index)
Pivot at: 20.45
As next week is full of events locally as well as globally, Market
Is likely to go through extreme volatile sessions. Traders should have
Strict stop loss and should book early profits.
Long term investors can average their existing positions at every fall.
DMAs(Day moving average)
Nifty / sensex is above all the moving averages. Nifty is above 200 DMA
(5732)(Sx.19094) for last few trading sessions
And 100 Day Expo. Average (5679) (Sx.18929) indicative of an
Uptrend in medium term.
If Nifty moves down the, 5 DMA (5811) (Sx.19353) and 10 Day Expo.
Average (5819) (Sx.19379) And closes below it, then it is likely
To test 200 DMA at 5732(Sx.19094).
All this suggests that though the medium term trend is up, short
Term may turn volatile depending on the news flow across the
Globe . The results will also have influence on daily trades leading
To stock as well as index volatility.
COMMENTS
Till Thursday markets have been moving on Global news flow
And Fund flow. Momentum has taken markets near the top
Of the range 5690-6950, now all depends on the results of
Some of the major companies,
Market has done enough ‘Bungee Jumping’ between the levels
Of 5950 and 5690 It has moved 4/5 times towards the high
End of the range and dropped back to the support at 5700.
Now if ‘Fundamentals ‘do support (Benign/ good results) the on
Going momentum, Nifty may cross the 6000 mark and
Move beyond to a next logical target of 6115.
Falling $ index
Buoyant global markets
Falling crude prices
Fair to good Monsoon prediction
And
FII buying in last few trading sessions
All these are conducive for rally to move further
The only worrying factors are
Expiry on 29th April
Expiry on 29th April
Inflation and
RBI Monitory policy on 3ed May.
Maarket Strategy
Buy the dips and Sell the rise. Watch for the break above 5950
Take long positions at and above 5813.
5950 – 5998 should be treated as no trade zone.
Do not create fresh shorts as long as Nifty is above 5813.
Intra day shorts should not be carried for next session
Unless Nifty close below 5813
Carry forward longs as long as Nifty is above 5800 and add
At all lower levels up to 5720.
Stock Specific
RIL
Lupin
Sun Pharma
M& M
Hero Honda
Infosys
Ambuja Cement
Hindalco (Above 217)
NTPC @186
Everest Kanto @ 85 (Sl@ 78. Tgt: 97/103)
Exide @143 (Sl@ 139, Tgt 149/151)
ARSS @ 567(Sl @ 544, Tgt 598/640)
RamkyInfra@ 287(Sl@ 268, Tgt:310/321)
Graphite @ 97(Sl@ 90,Tgt:110/116)
Geodesic @ 85(Sl@ 82, Tgt:98/112)
Indusind Bank@ 279(Sl@ 268, Tgt290/305)
Jindal Saw @206(Sl @ 197, Tgt 218/224)
Persistant @395 (Sl @ 383, Tgt 421)
Arvind @ 75
Sintex @ 168
Gati @ 64
Celestial lab @ 38
Tutis Tech. @ 25
Ador Fontech @ 98
Ador wielding @ 178
All these can be positional and/or long term
Buys.
IMPRESSION
Highly Volatile with
Pre Monsoon ‘Storms and lightning’ in offing
Thanks
Dr. Vasant Bele
All the views are personal, invest after consulting experts
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