Dear Investors
Wednesday was a day of one more swing, Indian stock
Markets are going through ‘deadly swings’ from one session
To another session,
Wednesday was the ‘Bull’s Day’
Market opened with small up move , Nifty at 5786 and
Continued to move up with hardly a major hiccough
Results of HCL Tech gave a booster to Nifty and sensex
Which moved beyond 5850 resistance, to close at
5851. A day of strong gains in all the sectors with good
Volume and posetive advance –decline ratio.
Levels on Wednesday:
Nifty: Open: 5786 / High: 5867 /Low: 5759 /Close: 5851
Sensex: Open: 19274 /High: 19484 / Low: 19171 /Close: 19470
What Next
Due to daily ‘Swings’ in market, it has become very difficult
For traders, speculators and analysts to predict the market
Movements. Last two days back Nifty was below 5700 and
No body thought it will move towards 5900 within a day or
Two. The speed and volume of swing is so much that it keeps
Anybody and everybody guessing ......What next?
Nifty is moving in a band of 5690-5950, this has become a
‘Zone of ‘Momentum’.
Market has closed at an important resistance level of 5851
(10 DMA, read yesterday’s article).Next important level to
Cross will be 5880/5920, once Nifty moves beyond that the
Top of the range (5690-5959) will give lot of selling pressure.
Today RIL and TCS will come out with results. Every body
Is expecting good numbers by these two will push Nifty
Towards 5950 and then to 6000. Let us see ‘Where the
Swing takes us’ , it is most uncertain and unpredictable
Market, so keep your fingers crossed and eyes fixed on
Screen
Levels to watch
UPWARD: 5880/ 5920/5998
DOWNWARD: 5800/5759/5720
Technical View
Pivot @:5822 (19375)
R1 (First resistance) @ 5885(19579)
R2 (Second resistance) @ 5920(19688)
R3 (Third resistance) @ 5983(19892)
S1 (First support) @ 5787(19266)
S2 (Second support) @ 5724 (19062)
S3 (Third support) @ 5689(18953)
Significance
As Nifty is moving in an upward channel one has to
Keep watch on supply areas(Resistance) Once Nifty
Moves above R1 (5885) it will face a stiff resistance
At the upper end of the range at R3(5983). To continue
The up move Nifty must close above 5959 with volume.
If 5920 and 5959 is not sustained , Nifty has a strong support at
5800 (S1@ 5787) and 5720(S2 @ 5724). To remain
In an up move Nifty should not break below 5690.
VXI (Volatility Index)
Pivot @21.20
Significance
The reduction in volatility or stability in a lower range
Will take Nifty and market towards higher levels.
Fall in VXI will take Nifty at higher levels, indicative
Of traders and investors confidence in the trend
DMAs(Day moving averages)
5DMA @ 5798(19311) 5Day Expo @ 5807(19388)
10DMA @ 5842(19460) 10 Day Expo @ 5804(19330)
30DMA @ 5650(19020) 30 Day Expo @ 5650(19020)
200DMA@ 5729(19084) 200 Day Expo @ 5607(18695)
SIGNIFICANCE
Nifty is above all the short term averages (5 DMA @ 5798
10DMA @ 5842, 30DMA @ 5650) indicative of a short-term
Up trend in place
Nifty has taken support at 200DMA (5724) during last fall
And now trading well above 200DMA @ 5729. Traders and
Investors can built long positions at every fall, as long
As Nifty is above 200DMA @ 5729, with a target of 5959.
Keep a immediate stop loss of 5Day Expo @ 5807 and deeper
Down 30 Day Expon. @ 5709.
COMMENTS
Traders and investors have to keep watch on ‘Events and
News flow’ so as to track the direction of movement on
A given day. Wednesday it was HCL Tech results, today
It will be RIL and TCS, results of these two majors will set the
Tone for the day. Global and Asian markets are moving
High, so there is no pressure from out side.
Positives for Bulls are (For short term)
Good Global markets
Weakening $ Index
Increased FII flow
Short covering on Wednesday
Fresh long built
Expectation of good results by TCS & RIL
Only Negatives are
Crude may bounce back
Inflation and Fear of Rate hike
2G case proceedings
It looks as if market has discounted all the negatives and is
Moving at higher levels with every positive news flow, at
Least in short term,
Even though we are moving higher with the news flow and FII
Support
Longer term looks very much hazy, because of number of
Fundamental concerns like
-Crude oil prices (Indian crude basket @ 115)
-Inflation,
-Hike in interest rates
-Earning compression and Growth concern
-Lack of Policy execution and public spending
By Government on all fronts, specially Infrastructure
In such circumstances one should ‘Ride the Trend’
As long as the short term momentum is going on. Keep
One eye on Global markets and another on Indian
Events.
We are in a transitional stage but to move decisively
To higher levels market requires some ‘Trigger’ to fire
All the ‘Engines’, at present we are moving up with
Borrowed fuel, we are out of crisis but still not on the
Track, because, problems like Inflation, Higher interest rate,
Infrastructure development and capitol expenditure are
Still persistent and unless we tackle them efficiently we
May not move beyond the ‘Range’
Market Strategy:
As long as Nifty is above 200DMA @ 5729 GO LONG
Book partial profits at, 5920 and 5998.
Do not go short till Nifty is above 5800/5750
All dips up to 5800 can be bought with a stop at 5720
Long term investors should use all the falls to pick strong
Stocks as investment buys. Use all the dips to create long
term portfolio
It is a stock pickers market at all lower levels
Stock Specific
HCL Tech
M&M
Infosys
Hero Honda
Indusind Bank
IDBI Bank @ 149( Sl @ 141, Tgt 158/162)
GMDC @ 142(Sl @138, Tgt: 148/159)
ARSS @ 564(Sl @ 535, Tgt: 580/592)
Tata Metalik@ 124(Sl @ 116, Tgt:142)
Himmatsingka Siedek@38(Sl@32, Tgt 46/52)
UCO Bank @ 120( Sl @ 113, Tgt 132/135)
Polaris @ 202(Sl@ 196, Tgt 211/218/224)
Geometric@66(Sl @ 58, Tgt :72/78)
Ador fontech @ 96 (Sl@ 91 Tgt 102,106)
Ador Weilding@ 178(Sl@ 168, Tgt 189, 201)
Tilaknagar @ 67
Exide @ 141
IMPRESSION
VERTIGO due to PARANORMAL EVENTS
Thanks
Dr. Vasant Bele
All the views are personal, Invest after consulting expert.
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