First day of the week saw a Bi- directional trade with volatility
Market opened on a negative note and nervous trade on the
‘Global weakness’, took Nifty below important level of 5450 to
Test 5434, but the compromise between ‘Bulls and Bears’ managed
To close the markets in a ‘Status Quo’ position. Verbal fight between
DGH and RIL dragged RIL and markets to lower levels, SBI,ONGC
And other large caps added fuel to it while NTPC,CIPLA,JP,HDFC
And R.Com helped markets to regain the top of the day at 5496.
Compromise
Data for the day:
Indices
Open: 5460(18242)
High: 5496(18313)
Low: 5436(18120)
Close: 5482(18266)
Advance Decline: 1438:1379
Turnover: 92000 cr
Gold: 1529$/oz (22450/10gm)
Silver: 35.54$/oz (53420/kg)
Crude; 99$brl
$ Index: 74.12
European Markets were flat and except Hangseng
And Kospi all the Asian markets closed negative.
What Next
The day’s trade
Has opened the cracks in the range 5450-5550, by testing 5434
Intraday, now all depends on ‘Devil’s day’, 16th June, when RBI
Policy will be declared. Nifty has threatened to break 5400, which
If broken, will open the flood gates for a new down wave, leading
To the lower range of 5310/5177.Till RBI policy, markets will be
Moving to and fro in a tight range of 5400/5500, unless some
News before that spoils the game', so one should wait and watch
Technical levels
Levels for the day
UPWARD: 5505(18356)/5557(18498)/5581(18606)
DOWNWARD: 5420(18066)5380(17966)/5310(17728)
Technical View
There is no change in the Resistance and support levels
For the market
Nifty has closed below all the short term Moving Averages
Like
5 DMA@5515 (18362)
20 Day Exponential @5512(18367)
40 Day Exponential @ 5544(18479)
Indicative of a short term weakness,
Immediate resistance for Nifty will be @ 5512, which is
20 Day Exponential average and 5544(18479) which is
40 Day exponential average
Unless Nifty moves beyond 5581(200 Day Exponential Av)
It will be face lot of resistance in getting to the Magic figure
Of 5600
Support for Nifty are at 5420/5380(18066/17966). To avoid
‘Panic’ selling Nifty must remain above 5310(17728) if not then
Market will be headed for a short term’ Bear Phase’
Watch: 5380/5535 FOR THE DAY
Market strategy
-All long and short positions (existing)should be booke
With minimal profits
-Fresh shorts can be created at 5530 with a stop at 5581
-Fresh longs should have stop loss of 5310 and a target
At 5581
-Have small positions with a intra day trailing stop loss
-No investment buying till the trend is fixed
Stock specific
You are likely to get upper and lower valuations during
The day, so book early profits and do not carry positions
For next day
RIL@910
SBI @2230
ITC @ 192
HUL @312
PFC@202
CIPLA @338
Ranbaxy @ 531
Howkins cooker@ 1598
Loveble Lingeri@292
HDIL@174
Globus spirit @ 152
IFGL@33
Tainwala@32
SPIC@31
E.Kanto @91
Patel Engg. @162
ACE Engg. @46
Alok @28
United Phos.@159
COMMENTS
Market tried to break below the 5450, indicating
That, Bears have managed to create ‘Cracks’ in Nifty.
This is not a good sign for markets, in coming days and
Weeks. All depends on RBI policy; it will not be the rate
Hike but the impressions of Governor regarding Inflation,
Growth and Economy will decide the near term trend of
The market. Any hike above 25bps will widen the ‘Cracks’
In market, leading to a ‘panic’ sell. If there is no change in
Rate and the perception of economy is encouraging
(Which is too much to expect) market will get a breather
And, may move towards 5600 max.
Along with RBI the other factor will be US markets,
S&P500 is at a critical level of 1270/1250. If it breaks
Below 1250, then it will have cascading effects on
Global markets.
So traders and investors should wait on side lines before
Making large investments or trading positions.
IMPRESSION
CRACKS
Thanks
Dr. Vasant Bele
All the views are personal, invest with caution and
After consulting experts
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