Dear Investors
One more day of listless trade on Thursday. Lower volume
And lower participation by traders kept market in a tight
Range of 20/25 points, with a intra day test of 5500 and
And close above 5500(5521) at the end, there was scattered
Activity amongst sectors like, Power, Private banking, Cap goods
And RIL, kept markets above psychological support of 5500.
Stocks from, telecom, cement, technology along with SBI and ONGC
Tried to drag Nifty below 5500.Volumes were low and breadth was
Negative.
Data for the day:
Indices:
Open: 5523(18394)
High: 5540(18449)
Low: 5502(18327)
Close: 5521(18384)
Advance Decline: 1390:1455
Turnover: 80000cr
Gold: 1542.27$/oz (22580/10GM)
Silver: 37.2$/oz (55850/KG
Crude: 102$/brl
Dow: +75
NASDAQ+9
SandP+9
What Next
Just a lack of interest from Traders, Speculators and long term
Investors is keeping Indian stock markets in a ‘Neutral Zone’,
Guessing what next, probably, it is waiting for the cues from
IIP numbers (Friday) and RBI meet on 16th June. Even day traders
Are unable to trade with success because there is no ‘Volatility’
In market, market has been moving in ‘Narrow’ range giving no
Chance for day trades.
Tomorrow being the last day of the week nothing different is expected
To happen, Market has exhibited high respect towards ‘Technical’
Support at 5500, it is important to see how far it follows the technical
Trends in coming days.
Levels to follow:
UPWARD: 5570(18574)/5598(18664)/5605(18700)
DOWNWARD: 5502(18327)/5480(18260)/5330(117970)
Technical view:
Pivot at: 5521(18386)
Nifty has closed below 5 DMA @ 5536 (18436)but
At 20 Day Exp Aver.@ 5522.
Next resistance will be at 100 DMA @ 5570(18574) and if crossed
On closing basis @ 100 Day Expo.Aver.@ 5612(18708).
Nifty has to move beyond 5645 (50DMA) AND 5757(200DMA) to
Qualify for a change in trend, if not , may correct from 5612
to the supports at 5502(18327),5480(18260),542018100)
Stock Specifics
RIL
Bharti Tele
IDEA @72
R.Com
R.Capitol
Kotak Bank
Patel Engg. @158
Sharp Ind.@64
SPIC @29
Tainwala Chem @30
Indai Glycol@118
Kalpena Ind@80
SKF@631
Camphor and Allied @218
Sumeet Ind.@36
I G Petro @28
Elecon Engg.@69
Balasore Allys@22
Day traders should keep stop loss at 3/5% down, while
Long term or positional traders can add at lower levels.
COMMENTS:
There is No Buying
No selling
Breadth is getting tighter
Cash volumes are drying
Least F and O activity
Minimal short positions
Long positions too minimal
Drop in turnover
Falling volatility
All this is indicates extreme inactivity I markets. As long as there
Is no participation by FII, DII and retail investors markets are
Unlikely to move in either direction.
There are few shorts in system which indicates that there is
Unlikely of covering of it, in case of some positive trigger
And scaling higher levels, similarly there was no buying since
Last few weeks which can be sold in panic leading to fall in
Indices, this is the reason why markets are not moving out
Of a tight range.
Unless there is some news or event leading to sustained
Buying or heavy shorting, markets may not exhibit movements.
All depends on news and events in India
Investors are afraid of taking positions because number of
Companies of good repute and business model are getting
In some type of controversies, unless there is a ‘clean up’
Retail investors will not come back to market.
This market has shown that it can not run only on ‘Technical’
Data but it needs ‘Fundamental’ support too.
We are at such a position that a small news or event will give
Large moves on either side.
We will either go beyond 5600 in a snap or will test 5400.
Markets are ripe for the swing, which way is difficult to
Predict till RBI meeting on 16th June, Federal Chief meeting
On 22nd June or some highly inflammable news from Global
Market. Till that time wait on side lines or do bargain hunting
In good quality mid cap stock in small installments.
IMPRESSION
Thanks
Dr. Vasant Bele
All the views are personal, invest with caution and after
Consulting experts
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