D-Railed

Dear Investors

On Thursday, Global fears, RBI s rate hike and remarks on

Monsoon gave reasons for the sick markets to ‘Derail’ from

the range. Market could digest the  expected 25 bps rate hike

But ‘Greece’ factor was responsible for mid day slide below 5400

Mark. Market closed just below the psychological mark of 5400

Breadth was negative and volumes were reasonable. today's fall 

was 'Disastrous Fall' and unwarranted too

All large cap stocks except some banking registered loss.

Data for the day

Indices

Open: 5419(18060)

High: 5447(18155)

Low: 5389(17958)

Close: 5396(17985)

Advance: Decline:1111:1761

Turnover: 1,30,000 cr

Gold: 1529$/oz (22499/10gm)

Silver: 35.56$/oz (53344/kg)

Crude: 96$/brl

$Index: 75.5

Dow: +62(11961)

S&P +2(1267)

All the European markets were 1 to 2% down along with Asia

What Next:

Indian markets are at the cross road of ‘Breaking’ in to a

Bear market trend. 5400 has to be hold. Ground realities are

So flimsy that even a small bad news will cause disastrous

effect on Indian market, which is on the verge of collapsing.

 Today’s, weekly, closing will decide the fate of ‘Debilitating’

Indian market, if markets  close below 5400/5380 then

 there is every possibility that ir will get ‘De Railed’ for longer

 period in to a bear market,

Levels to watch:

UPWARD: 5440(18140)/5480(18288)/5504(18308)

DOWNWARD: 5380(17900)/5328(17786)/5310(17728)

Technical view:

Pivot is at: 5410(18032)

Nifty has closed all the short and medium term

Moving averages indicating that the trend has turned

In to negative zone

Now the immediate resistance is @ 5440(18122)

Which is nearer to the closing on 15^th June.

As long as Nifty is below 5480(18200), which is 20 DMA

It will be under pressure of moving down the levels of

Support at 5380/5328 and 5310.

Once 5328(17786) , a low on 25^th May is broken the next

Vital support is at 5310 (17728) which was closing level

On Feb.11 2011,

Now the possibility of moving below 5310/5250 and testing

11 Feb.’s intraday lows of 5177 are wide open

COMMENTS

Lack of flows

Lack of FII participation

Lack of retail buying

No cash base buying

Lack of conviction

And

Nervousness in trades along with

Only F and O activity,

 are the main reasons for the downfall in market

This market is so ‘debilitated’ that even a small unconfirmed

News like ‘Below average monsoon’ can cause death.

As it is the Greece factor’ , Governmental apathy and RBI

Rate hike has brought markets to ‘death’ bed, on top of that

The news ,’Unconfirmed, about monsoon gave reasons for

Bears to have a last jolt to the markets. Unfortunately media

Are playing in the hands of Bears, by spreading unconfirmed

News from ‘Some source’ from met department. It is surprising

That with in two days how can forecast be changed (two days back

It was officially declared that this year monsoon will be 98 to 102%

Of the average and suddenly some source base information

Confirms the likely short fall, media should be care full in spreading

These unconfirmed ‘Source base’ news which can cause damage

To sentiment of the investors. It is hardly 8/10 days that monsoon

Is on the horizon and suddenly there are changing predictions.

It is like, after 1or 2 weeks confirmed pregnancy, you  predict that the

Child delivered will be, either, future Abhitab Bacchan or Madhubala.

Media and concerned authorities should have some responsible

Way to deal with market sensitive issues.)

Sorry to divert but it is important to take this in to consideration

Before taking some views on market.

Now as the RBI has done its job, all depends on what happens

To Euro zone economy and US markets

On the back drop of Greece default, there is de rating of Bank of

France and some more banks

We are moving towards

Federal meeting on 22^nd June regarding QE2 and QE3

$Index is rising, all in all global situation is not conducive for

Indian and Asian markets. Investors and traders should wait

Till things get cleared on global front.

It looks that damage is beyod repair,Nither (Pathetic)Government

Nor( Hawkish)RBI or (Limping) Global economy can help Indian market

To recover, in near term.Good maonsoon may reduce the flames of

the fire but, it will be ‘burning under the Ashes’, till some drastic changes

 do occure

Market Strategy

Being last trading day of the week volatility will be rampant

It is advised not to trade for the day

Get all the positions cleared, long or Short

Do not create fresh positions

Be on sidelines

Stock specific

Book profits in all the trades advised like

Lovena lingare

Pacific Ind.

Sharp

Celestial labs AND others

CARRY

Positions only in FMCG

Dabur

HUL

ITC

And Pharma

Ranbaxy

Lupin

IMPRESSION

SINKING

Thanks

Dr. Vasant Bele

All the views are personal , and without any intention

To hurt persons and individuals.

Invest cautiously and after consulting experts