Dear Friends
On Tuesday market started with significant gains but as trade
Proceeded volatility took Nifty to lower levels below 5500.But
With the help of Financials, Capital Good, Power ,Auto and
Telecom sector markets ‘Extended the Gains’ to close above
At 5545, a good 18 points up. Though broader market was flat
Large caps like HDFC Bank,Kotak Bank,ONGC,Bharti,L&T,
BHEL helped markets to move closer to the resistance level
Of 5550. Advance decline was leveled while turnover was
High. Sensex gained 80 points to close above 18400
Data for the day:
Indices;
Open: 5548(18493)
High: 5558(18527)
Low: 5496(18323)
Close: 5545(18492)
Advance: Decline: 1493:1399
Turnover: 1, 77,000 cr.
Gold: 1500$/oz(22089/10gm)
Silver: 33.64$/oz(50615/kg)
Crude: 92.86$/brl
$ Index: 75.65
Dow: +145(12188)
S&P: +16(1296)
Global markets were positive, with Europe scaling
More that one percent in all the three major Indices,
CAC, DAX and FTSE.
What Next:
Within last few trading sessions markets have made significant
Moves on the back drop of falling crude and Government’s
Decision on Oil and Gas prices. It is worth getting some breather
And consolidate for few trading sessions before Nifty makes a
New fresh move. As we are nearing expiry on Thursday market
May exhibit volatile trades on either side. As long as this series
Ends above 5500 markets will remain in a ‘Positive Bias’. Market
Has signaled that Lot of ‘Bad Triggers’ are already played’ in
Currant valuations and still it is in an up move. For a significant
Change in the trend Nifty has to ‘Overcome’ certain technical
Hurdles or remain well above the support levels
Levels to watch
UPWARD: 5570(18571)/5584(18607)/5620(18700)
DOWNWARD: 5505(18345)/5470(18240)/5440(18160)
Technical View:
Pivot at: 5533(18447)
-Nifty has closed above all the short term moving averages
Especially
50 Day Exponential @ 5505 and 60 Day exponential @ 5521
-This is in itself a bullish sign for medium term period.
-Now to keep the momentum floating in near term Nifty has
To cross the Moving averages between 70 and 200, exponential
Placed in the range of 5558(18527), 90 DMA, and 5568(18600),
200 Day Exponential average.
-Nifty may face selling pressure at vital resistance levels of
5584(18607) and 5598(18660), close above 5610 will be a
Trend setter in near term, one has to be careful in positioning
-Beyond 5600 as Nifty may correct from here to the support
Like,
5505(18345), 5480(18300) and 5440(18160)
-To remain in an up ward bias Nifty should remain above
5420/5380 levels.
Market strategy;
-Buy all the dips up to 5440
-Book profits at higher levels beyond 5571
-All longs should have a stop of 5420 and a near term
Target of 5598
-Avoid shorts at this level
-All shorts, existing, should have a stop loss of 5571
5584-5610 should be treated as ‘No trade zone’
-Wait for investment buying till markets get stabilized
In a range.
Stock Specific:
HINDALCO
STERLITE
L&T
ICICI Bank
Kotak Bank
NTPC
ONGC
Bharti
Ranbaxy
Cipla
HUL
M&M
Jain Irrigation@ 170 Piramal Life@ 90
Sintex@173 Page Ind.@1828
Tainwala Chem @36 Summet Ind
Exide@ 167 BANCO Product @70
Federal Mugal@254 Sahyadri Ind.@54
Raymond @ 254 Talwalkar@254
Hercules Hoist @236
All trades should have stop loss at 3/5% lower level
Or Nifty level of 5440
COMMENTS
After three successive days rally markets have reached to
A significant level of 5500 and above. Market have gained
around 350 Nifty points in few trading sessions. This indicate
the change in sentiment. This rally is broad base and with
FII and DII participation, there is substantial cash base, fresh,
buying and good amount of short covering. Tomorrow being
Expiry day markets will be volatile today and tomorrow. It
looks that, we will close the expiry above 5500 or even
nearer to 5600, If so, then July will be a strong month.
If Nifty moves beyond 5600 on the back of, Greece
Going through, US positive data, Good monsoon and some
Positive steps by Indian Government then the mood will be
Changed and 5200 low can be taken as bottom and then the
range will shift higher, 5350-5600, and any further trigger,
will change the gear of the market towards 5700/5750 level
Which is 200 DMA. Which will qualify for change in trend.
All these ‘Ifs and Buts’ have some sharp ‘Edges’ like
-Inflation
-July RBI policy measures, rate hike and Growth projection
-We will start June result season, where companies will
Be under margin pressure and slowing of growth
-Greece
-US slow down on the back drop of termination of QE2
But at the same time
-Easing crude prices
-Easing Commodity prices
AND
-Good monsoon along with
-End of Government Apathy on policy front and falling
Crude prices with diesel de regulation, if it occurs,
May counter balance all the negatives, to propel Indian
Markets to higher levels or get consolidated in a higher
Range before moving beyond 5600.
So as far as next few days are concerned one should
Hope to see that the on going correction is halted and
Markets prepare for the next up move.
Investors and traders can hope to see, End of the DRAUGHT’
As far as liquidity, across the border is concerned.
All this may look like a ‘fairy tell’ for the Investors and traders
Who are bleeding with last few days to months trauma, but
Folks,” That is Stock market” It can change its colures faster
Than a lizard (Sarda)
Hope it will not be ‘too early’ for the ‘Bulls to Dream’ rosy
Days ahead
IMPRESSION
ENTHUSED
Thanks
Dr. Vasant Bele
All the views are personal, invest with caution and
After consulting experts
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