Menacing ( Threatening)

                                                 Next week(13th June to 18th June 2011)

Dear Investors

Indian markets after running in a tight range and struggling to

Overcome eventuality to stay there broke downward to take a

Support at crucial level of 5480. Discouraging IIP numbers,

Below expectation result season, High Inflation and fear of

Rate hike led to lack participation among investors  led

 To a ‘Tepid’ week.

 It was a week of negative events and data, all over the world markets

All in all

 This is highly ’Menacing’ (Threatening) situation for

 ‘Equity market in general

A declining trend in volumes was most worrying, the five-day daily

 Average volume on the NSE stood at 460 million, lower than it’s

 90-day average daily volume of 615 million shares. 

Foreign funds have bought around $260 million of shares in June,

 After selling $1.2 billion in the previous month. 

-Nifty at a crucial level

-S&P threatening to break support @1250

-Dow moving below 12000

-Europe at the cross road of default

So now Is It ‘Time to Think’ about…………?       

      Winding out positions (for the time being)

      Switching off your mobiles

      Leaving the Gold at home

      Taking a cash from markets……….

      And have a nice week at the beach

Yes, time to forget about May/June and look forward to sunny days

 At the beach in July and August

 ... But I know

 When it comes to the stock market, we don't accept that mindset.

Sometimes financial concerns can follow us to the beach.

 Just take a look at what I mean with the performance of past week

 And then you will under stand why i want you to do that

-The Nifty and Sensex lost 0.6%, 

-The CNX Midcap index was down 0.01%,

-The BSE Auto lost 2%, 

-BSE Realty gained marginally, 0.81% and 

-BSE Metal lost 1.26% during the week.

-April IIP at 6.3% versus 7.3%

-Food inflation at 9.01% versus 8.06% 

-India’s May car sales slowest in 2 years

-Government took few steps away form policy front

-Politically situation is fluid for UPA government

-Most of the global indices closed week on a negative note

-Dow below 12000

-S&P AT 1270, at a vital support level

-Dow and S & P recorded a sixth weekly fall,

  Longest stretch of weekly loss since 2001

-Hang sang down by 2.3%

-China’s shanghai composite down by .80%

-And all European markets ending down on Friday

-Rising $ Index

-Falling Gold prices

-Silver getting corrected

As far as Indian market is concerned

-The Sensex swung 363 points between a high of 18546 and a low

 Of 18183 and closed the week at 18269, down by 108 points or 0.6%

-The Nifty swung about 113 points between a high of 5570 and a low

 Of 5457 and ended at 5486, down 31 points or 0.6%.

-All the sectorial indices have closed in red and

-Breadth of market getting worst on every trading day

Technically Indian market is poised at crucial juncture

-Nifty is constantly trading below 200 DMA(5757) for last few weeks

-Nifty is correcting the bounce to 5944 on April 6th 2011 from

 The level of 5177 on 11th Feb 2011.

-Nifty is unable to move above and sustain the levels above 5600

-And is forming lower tops and lower bottoms

-Nifty is at the vital support at 5480/5420

Once Nifty breaks below 5328, low on May 25th 2011, panic

Selling will take it to the levels below 5300 and last Bastian

Of the bounce at 5177.

On the back drop of

-Rising Inflation

-Fear of rising interest rates in 16th June’s RBI monitory policy

-Federal Governments stance on QE2 in 22nd June meeting

-Indian Governments apathy towards policy decisions

And

-Fluid Socio political situation in around UPA government

-Economic development and Industrial Growth is at a

 Threatening stage.

Taking all these factors in to consideration one has to chart out

 the strategy for next week

-Keep small positions in market

-Keep stop loss at 3/5% lower levels

-Do not carry long positions for nexr day

-Book early profits

-Use all dips below the levels of 5300 to create long term

  Portfolio investments in ‘Fundamentally’ good companies

 -Try to built ‘Dividend’ portfolio at all dips by choosing

  ‘High Dividend’ yield cos.

Levels to watch during Next week;

 Downward: 5420 / 5310 /5250 /5177

 Upward: 5515 / 5583 /5609

Till the RBI policy is out, avoid

Banking

Autos

Capitol Goods

Real Estate and Construction

Can trade in

FMCG

Pharma

IT

Consumable durables

Stock specific:

 RIL

ONGC

GAIL

HUL

ITC

Colgate

Sun Pharma

Ranbaxy

HCL Technology

Petronet LNG@139

Lovable Lingerie @286

Idea@72

Bosch@6990

Coal India@404

SKF645

Celestial Lab@31

Federal Mugal @263

Sharp @64

Camlin@75

Hercules Hoist @243

IMPRESSION

WORRIED

Read Market for Monday As a separate Blog

Thanks Dr

Dr. Vasant Bele

All the views are personal, Invest with caution and

After consulting experts