Dead Lock (Frustrating)

                                                                               

 Dear Investors

It was one more day of ‘Nervous’ trade; it looks both the bulls

 And bears are exhausted. News and events, hopes and nervousness

Is keeping traders on both the sides guessing the direction of market,

The result is ‘Flat day’ like Wednesday. Market closed in red. Bulls tried

 To pull markets beyond 5550 while bears below that. Ultimately at

The end on the back drop of ‘Remark of US fed authority Ben Bernanke

And weak global markets Indian market tanked below 5550 to close

in Negative territory. Oil and Gas, Finances and Banking, Metal and Health

Care along with Cement all helped bears to push bulls in corner.

It was same low volume low participation story of last few weeks that kept

Dead Lock between hope and disappointment continued in market

Data for the day

Indices

Open: 5535(18848)

High: 5556(18505)

Low: 5514(18365)

Close: 5526(18394)

Advance decline: 1387:1426

Turnover: 1, 00,000 cr.

Gold: 1536$/oz (22500)

Silver: 36.2$/oz (54700/kg)

Crude: 101$/brl

Global markets: all the Asian and European markets closed

Lower.

What Next:

It looks ‘Grinding’ will continue as long as there is no ‘Strong

Trigger’ or News or Event to push markets on either side of

The range. There is no FII/DII or retail participation in market.

It is the day trader and speculators who are keeping markets

Alive to some extent. No body is sure on which side the market

Is going to move, this keeps indices oscillating between the

Technical ranges during the day

Levels to watch

UPWARD: 5570(18545)/5605(18650)/5630(18700)

DOWNWARD: 5505(18345)/5480(18260)/5420(18070)

Technical view

Nifty has immediate reliance at 5570(18545) which is 100

DMA and 5598 level, which is 40 DMA. Unless Nifty close

Above 5612, 100Day Exponential average, it will not move

Towards 5650 which will be strong resistance level

The trend will change only when Nifty moves beyond 5757,

200DMA otherwise all the rise in markets can be labeled

As ‘Bounce Backs’ in a down trend.

On down moves as long as Nifty holds 5480/5420 levels

One can expect markets to move in upward direction on a

Day of a Good News or Event’

Once Nifty trades below 5420/5380 levels on closing basis

We will be moving towards the lower range of 5310/5177

Market strategy

-Better to keep away from markets

-Traders can try with small positions on either side

-Short positions can be carried till 5598 with a target of

5480

-Long positions should have a stop loss at 5480 and a target

Of 5598

-5598-5630 SHOULD BE TREATED AS ‘NO TRADE ZONE’

Stock specifies

One can try to trade in stocks from

FMCG ; HUL.ITC,Colgate

Pharma:Lupin,Sun pharma, Ipca Lab

Power:NTPC

Oil and Gas:RIL

Short term trades can be initiated in

Yes Bank(3000

GMDC(150)

Sharp Ind(60)

Everesr Kanto(92)

Hind Zinc(133)

Idea(70)

Camlin(75)

Sumeet Ind(34)

Arvind(78)

Tainwala Chem(29)

Pacific Ind.(171)

Elnet Tech.(39)

Loveble Lingeri(326)

Keep stoploss and small targets

No long term buying at this moment

COMMENTS

Bulls and bears are getting ‘Exhausted’ in keeping markets

On their side. Hope of a ‘Good event’ and ‘Prevalence’ of

‘Bad news’ is keeping markets in a range.

Investors are not prepared to bet their money in an uncertain

Markets while traders are afraid of going short at this level of

Volatility. Everybody is waiting on sidelines for

The ‘Game’ to start, ‘Dead lock’ to get broken. It looks that

Markets are headed for a ‘Wield and Violent’ move in days

To come, on which side is anybody’s guess. It all depends on

Number of factors and events, whose out come, is not known

To any one, traders can trade but investors should wait for the

Events like

RBI Meet

EGoM on different issues to take place

Monsoon Progress

Federal meets on June 22^nd for QE2/QE3 decision

Every event has got its own effects on Indian market,

All of them will have some effect in common on..........

Inflation

Interest rate

Commodity prices

Economic Growth

These are the pillars of any economy, on which depends flow

Of money in stock markets, either by FII,DII or retail Investors.

From longer term perspective.In near  term ‘Traders will move

The markets on either side, with help of ‘News, Rumors and

Individual stock performances.But for sustained market movements

We need ‘Fundamentals’ to get in order, till that time long term

 investors should hold their cash in hand.

IMPRESSION

Frustrating

Thanks

Dr. Vasant Bele

All the views are personal, invest with caution and

After consulting experts