WOBBLY (unsteady) MARKETS

Dear Investors

Overnight weakness in global markets led to weak opening of Nifty

at 5455(56points down)However Banking / Financials/cement and

ADAG stocks helped Nifty to cover some losses before RBI policy.

Nifty  reached above 5500(5510). As expected RBI raised Repo rate

By 25bps but ‘Worried Governor’s’ remarks on Inflation/Growth/GDP

Led to a sharp fall in, Banking/Financials/Reality. Nifty was attempting to

Cover losses when sudden spike in OIL prices made markets ‘Wobbly’.

Nifty closed near day’s low (5435) at 5446. Only satisfaction was,

 Nifty managed to close above 5400

Today’s Levels

Nifty:  Open: 5455 /High: 5510 /Low: 5435 /Close: 5446

Sensex:  Open: 18227 / High: 18335/ Low: 18104/ Close: 18149       

What Next

As written in last article (Blog Dated 16^th March) It was RBI to start

And then OIL helped in spoiling the game leading to high volatility

And ‘Unsteady’ moments in days trade. Nifty could not go beyond

5511 and stopped at 5446 .It looks that market is not willing to go

Up or down the range .Since last few trading sessions Nifty’s top is

CAPPED at 5600, while lower end of the range is SEALED at 5400.

Market has sustained all the bad events like, Egypt, Libya,

Europe, Oil prices, Budget, Scams and Japanese tragedy

Without moving beyond the range. As all the possible triggers on

 both the sides are over,  the only culprit remained is OIL..

All other events are factored in present valuations

As out of all this Wobbly condition markets are honoring technical

Levels , one has to go by that, till some new trigger rises.

Watch the levels

Upward: 5506/5567/5599

DOWNSIDE:5417/5380/5330

Technical View

Pivot for Nifty: 5463

R1(First resistance) is @ 5492(sensex:18300)

R2 (Second resistance) is @ 5538(sensex: 18452)

R3 (Third resistance) is @ 5567(sensex: 18550)

Significance

Nifty closed below pivotal value , indicating short term bearishness

As long as Nifty does nod close above R3(5567) market will not be

In an up trend, there is a strong selling pressure at R3(5567).

Shorts can be created above R2 (5538) with a stop at 5599.

Long positions created at closing levels should have stop loss at

5400/5380.

S1 (First support) is @ 5417(sensex: 18050)

S2 (second support) is @5388(sensex: 17952)

S3 (third support) is @ 5342(sensex: 17800)

Significance

S1 (5417) will be immediate support for Nifty.

Break below S3 (5342) will open one more down range of

5330/5177

All short positions can be carried as long as Nifty remains

Below pivot (5463) and  can be closed at S3(5342).

Lon positions should have a stop loss at S2(5388)

Market may bounce back from there.

VXI (Volatility index)

Pivot is at: 24.94

Volatility will be increasing, as long as VXI is

Around 24 markets will be extremely volatile

DMAs(Day moving averages)

5DMA @ 5468(sensex: 18293)

20DMA @ 5467(sensex: 18255)

40DMA@ 5485(sensex: 5485)

50 DMA @5561(sensex:18559)

200DMA @ 5674(sensex: 18905)

50 Day Exponential average is @5561(Sebsex:18557)

200 Day exponential average is @5599(Sensex:18674)

Market is around 5 and 20 DAMs indicating short term weakness

For an uptrend to established Nifty has to close above 50DMA

(5561), Simple and ex. DMA are at same level indicating the

Significance of this level

Nifty will face lot of resistance at 200Day Exponential average(5599)

Close above this will take markets to 200Day simple average at 5674

Day moving averages are important from trend point of view

While R and S values can be used to decide your stop losses

Or targets for individual positions

COMMENTS

Indian stock market washed out all the gains it gained on last

Trading day. Once again volatility laws the trend of the day, RBI

And OIL played their respective rolls to make traders and Investors

Nervous. After sustaining all the events during last few weeks now

Markets have gone in a ‘State of Fatigue’, One has to wait and

Watch for some trigger to move the markets out of ‘shuttle

Movement’ of Nifty between 5400 and 5600

It has become a traders, adventurous’, market . Investors

 Can choose good fundamental Mid and Large cap stocks’ in

Small installments at all lower levels. Better not to trade in

 those stocks for next 12 months.

Any break on either side of the range will give a violent reaction

So traders and speculators should be prepared for that.

All positions, long or short, should be covered with strict stop

Loss and targets for profit should be small (no greed please)

5380 is a strong support for Nifty while 5600(5599, 200 Day

Exponential average) is a stiff resistance.

Unless Nifty moves above 5567 on closing basis with volume

No long positions should be created. Any fall below 5330 can

Be used to create fresh shorts to be covered at 5445 (today’s close)

5480- 5530 should be treated as no trading zone

Stock specific

All recommendations are for traders and speculators with

Strong heart or addicted to trade every day

Bharti

ACC

Guj. Ambuja

Union Bank

Canara Bank

HUL

RIL

Reliance capital

Reliance Communication

Biocon

Indusind Bank

Yes Bank

Syndicate Bank

Praj Ind.

Sanjivani Parenterals

Sumeet Ind.

EMCO

Elecon Eng.

GMR Infra

Celestial Lab

Tilaknagar Ind.

Global Spirit

Sun Pharma Recent Adv.

Piramal Life Sciences

Artson Eng.

S. Kumar Nation

These are some of the stocks for long term investments

One can have positional trades ( 5 to 15 days)

IMPRESSIONS

 

  FATIGUED BY ENDLESS RANGE GAME 

Thanks

Dr. Vasant Bele

All the views are personal, invest after expert’s opinion

FLASH: All US INDICE HAVE CLOSED IN GREEN and 

UN(United Nation) has sanctioned 'No fly zone ' over

                                  Libya