BREAKING the BARRIERS

                                                        Market next Week


                                     

                            

Dear Investors

                 

(Dear Investors' because of volume and speed of events all over the

World, it is becoming increasingly difficult to predict markets even for

Next day, so naturally weekly prediction is to be taken with caution

And with technical angle,only)  

…

It was unrest in Bahrain, and Libya which continued upward

Rise of oil prices after a short gap. Along with the threat

Of Radiation spread Mukesh Ambani’s statement in relation to

  Oil and Gas production, led a fall in Indian stock markets to

close below (Nifty) 5400 , a psychological support since last few

 trading sessions

On Fridays Nifty closed at 5373 as compared to last Friday’s close

At 5445, Nifty closed on lower side as far as week on week basis

 is concerned, the other part of worry is , Nifty closed this week on

very high volumes to, ‘Break the Barrier’ of long maintained

range, 5400-5600, with a question ‘What Next’?.

Foreign funds have lowered their exposure to emerging markets

 such as India on inflationary concerns and rising interest rates

These fund have sold around 1.8# worth Indian equities during this

Month leading to a fall of 10/12% in index valuation.

Japanese earthquake, tsunami, unrest in Middle East and rising problems in

Euro zone economies have added to uncertainties in financial markets

Leading to change in pattern of asset allocation by investors.

After s small correction, post Japanese calamity, Commodity prices

Are again on an upward direction, leading to unrest in Global and Indian

Economy.

Series of events, all around, are keeping Indian markets subdued

And are likely to move in down ward direction till conditions ease

Out on macro and micro fronts. Only Question Is ‘How far down?’

We will go?

Till last Friday we were stuck in the range of 5400-5300.

We closed last Friday at 5445.so, even with all the global volatility,

 commodity fluctuations, net-net, we  were maintaining the range but

 this Fridays we have closed Just below the lower end of the range,

5400-5600, next moves depend on what happens to Oil prices and

 political problems of UPA Government, secondary to Wilkins’s

 disclosure of some politically Sensitive material.

It looks there is no end to volatility

 Volatility index has been constantly above 24 ,

. 

       

Back home, rising interest rates, high inflation and political uncertainty (report from wikleak, TMC/CONGRESS alliance etc.) continues to remain a concern for the market which the government is trying to contain with various measures. Readers are therefore, advised to trade with caution in view of uncertain conditions prevailing in the market.

With every bad news the ‘Risk Meter’ will run faster for

Stock market 

Watch For:

 UPWARD: 5421/ 5480/5530

 DOWANWORD; 5330/52805177

Any close below 5330 will open the gates for 5200/5177 levels, if

Broken the support lies at and below 5000(Nifty)

Technical View

 ( Go through the article written on 28th Feb.'Back to the wall')

 Historical chart for Nifty shows that we are at 5303/5380, just above the line 3 which is placed at 5170(previous low)

, If Nifty falls to the line 3 and below, then there Are very weak supports above 5000 level? Any panic situation may lead to break 

Nifty to lower supports at 5000/4880(see the chart of Nifty)

It is advised to follow technical levels with proper stop losses

Watch For:

 UPWARD: 5421/ 5480/5530

 DOWANWORD; 5330/52805177

Any close below 5330 will open the gates for 5200/5177 levels, if

Broken, next support lies at and below 5000(Nifty)

COMMENTS

Last week turned out to be a bad session finally.

Friday’s fall was with high volume, which surprised the street as they had been the buyers off late. There was news on Reliance downgrading its gas output targets from the KG basin.

The credit policies’ inflation and GDP remark was enough for the Nifty to move down. It was down below 5400 support which was strong over the last few trading sessions

The global economy is flooded with a number of uncertainties as of now which are affecting us on a larger scale, likes of………….

Japan earthquake, tsunami and the nuclear meltdown, but even other problems such as the ongoing Middle East crisis, and problems in the Euro zone are also responsible for nervousness in market

Nifty/Markets, is at the border of changing trend, one has to watch

Whether events around us make markets to’ Break the Barrier’

Of range which it followed for last few weeks, to move down

No stock specific

IMPRESSIONS

BEARISH

Thanks

Dr. Vasant Bele

All the views are personal, invest after consulting experts

Read Markets on Monday’ as a separate article