Dear Investors
Markets on Wednesday remained lackluster and range bound,
Neither settlement between UP And DMK nor cooling of oil
Move markets beyond range. Nifty started with a gap up(5542) open
And moved down to the levels of 5477, even mid day bounce
Because of RIL’s news, could not move Nifty beyond 5563.Nifty closed
Flat at 5531.Barring few movers in large caps Nifty remained ‘Range’
Bound’ all the day it looks as if ‘Bulls and Bears’ are ‘Tiring’ out
Day’s Levels
Nifty: Open: 5542, High: 5563, Low: 5477, Close: 5531
Sensex: Open: 18552, High: 18583, Low: 18303, Close; 18496
What Next:
Wait and Watch for range, 5400-5600, to break on either side.
What may change this?
a) oil moving above 106$/barrel or unrest spreading in other parts
will break Nifty on downside to test 5380/5330
b) Settlement between rebels in Libya
Slide below 100$/barrel will propel Nifty to 5600 and above
All other things are factored in present values
0R
A wield guess:
Since last few trading sessions, the time since Nifty bounced from 5177
To 5608 all the Analysts –technical and fundamental-trading houses,
TV Experts, Pan wala, Rikshawala…….and Astrologists and me too,
Are hammering on investors mind ……(no intentions to hurt any one)
That market, Nifty will move in a ‘Range of 5400-5600’, XYZ will take it to 5400
and ABC will take it to 5600 , no life beyond that, So buy at dips and sell at highs,
How simple! ……... (There is a saying in stock market that, ‘when any one
and every one’ starts thinking and saying ‘Same Thing’ it rarely happens.)…
One should not forget history, markets are known to
Give shocks to complacent traders and speculators. It is known for
Its Absurd moves or unpredictability, it can surprise all while we are gusseing.
It will happen as an ‘out of blue’…. Markets are known to ‘Blow the hats’ of all those
‘Wise and wield’ men on ‘Dalal Street Uncharted Territory
Up or down,
’ so keep this as a wield probability in Mind while you trade,
Disclaimer: I too belong to the ‘Ranger's Club ………………’
So its time, something should happen……….otherwise it’s really ‘TIRING’
This was something different; now let me come to the routine job
Technical View:
Pivot for Nifty: 5523(sensex: 18460)
R1 (First resistance) is @ 5570 (sensex: 18618)
R2 (Second resistance) is @ 5609 (sensex: 18740)
R3 (Third resistance) is @ 5656 (sensex; 18898)
Significance:
Close below pivot (5523) may trigger lower levels
For up trend to continue Nifty must close above R1 (5570)
R2 (5606) will be most important level, if close is above it
Then ‘bulls’ will pull the market up to R3 (5656) which is
200DMA also,
Short traders should keep 5570/5580 as stop loss for their trades
And create fresh shorts only above 5630 with a stop at 5690
Long traders should carry positions till Nifty is trading above 5480/5523
Level with a stop at 5449 and carry positions up to 5611/5630 level
S1 (First support) is @ 5484(sensex: 18338)
S2 (Second support) is @ 5437(sensex: 18180)
S3 (third support) is @ 5397(sensex: 18058)
Significance
In an upward trending market supports are important from stop
Loss for long position holders. S1 (5484) should be the first
Stop loss for long traders. Any close below s1 (5484) should be
taken as short term change in trend to down.
S3(5397) will confirm resumption of down move.
Bears can create short positions below 5380 with a stop loss
At S1 (5484)
VXI (Volatility Index)
Pivot is @ 23.32, Indicating increase in volatility.
DMAs(Day moving average)
5DMA IS @ 5516 (Sensex: 18417)
20 DMA IS @ 5421(sensex: 18110)
40 DMA IS @ 5522(sensex: 18433)
50DMA IS @ 5630(sensex: 18795)
200DMA IS @ 5660(sensex: 18856)
For short term trend the support is at 5421(20DMA), any close
below that will indicate change of trend to ‘Down’
As long as Nifty is above 40DMA (5522) up move will continue
And all longs can be carried up 5630(50DMA)
200DMA will be a crucial level to be watched, there will be
Selling pressure at this level. Close above that will give 100
Point rally to 5760. If 200DMA is not sustained and Nifty
Drops below 5DMA, ONE MORE SHART TERM DOWN MOVE WILL
START. Long traders should keep stop loss around 200DMA.
COMMENTS
In spite of cooling of the oil and improvement of the political
Situation there was hardly any movement in stock market.
This is suggestive of lack of interest by major players like FFI
And DI(Domestic Institutions). Low volumes and price movements
In beaten down sectors is indicative of speculative nature of
The rally, Market is waiting for some more trigger to make next
Move, up or down.In such situations traders should keep strict stop loss
For all the positions. All eyes are towards OIL and Situation in
Oil producing countries.
There was one more threat emerging from small ‘European’
Nations, remarks of economist’s that Spain, Italy and Portugal
Are not out of woods, hope this does not add fuel to the
‘Ranged market’ to break down
Be cautious in coming days.
Stock specific
Day traders can trade with stop loss at
SAIL
ICICI Bank
ACC
Guj. Ambuja
M&M
Bharti
STERLITE and
DLF
Mid cap and small cap given below can be looked
Up on as long term investment buyers and traded for the
Day
Celestial Lab @ 32
LIC Housing @199
IPCA Lab@273
Hexaware @55
Polaris @188
Rolta @147
GATI @57
EMCO @60
Charterd Capital @55
Camphor and Allied @210
Herculis Hoiest @ 218
Arvind @56
IMPRESSION
Waiting for next ‘Assault or Insult’
Thanks
Dr. Vasant Bele
All the views are personal, Invest after consulting experts.
Written and Posted at 11; 45pm on 9th March 2011
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