Dear Investors
On Tuesday stock market opened in green at 5390. Positive
Global markets and stable crude prices helped prices to moved
Upward. Trading was in a ‘small tight range’ with very low
Volume. Bulls tried to push Nifty above 5400
But failed to sustain higher levels, it was totally a ‘Flat
Trading’ day. During the day Nifty tested 5376 and
Closed at 5413, a psychological support to bulls.
Today’s Levels
Nifty: Open: 5390 /High: 5428/Low: 5376/Close: 5413
Sensex: Open: 17929/High: 18041/Low: 17878/Close: 17988
What Next?
It has been a difficult period for market participants
Traders are unable to predict the moves in stock market.
Last few sessions market is moving in a range, can call
As ‘Consolidation’. Now the important level for Nifty is
5330 for break down of trend and 5515 for break out of
Consolidation, any break below 5330 will
Take Nifty to 5220 and 5177 levels. For up move to
Resume Nifty must close above 5557, which looks
An ‘Uphill Task’
Traders and investors should keep watch on technical
Levels and adjust trades accordingly.
Technical View:
Pivot for Nifty: 5405
R1 (First resistance) is @ 5435(sensex: 17996)
R2 (Second resistance) is @5457(sensex: 18060)
R3 (Third resistance) is @ 5487(sensex: 18132)
Significance
For a significant up move to take place Nifty has
To close above R3 (5487)
Short traders should keep R3 (5487) as stop loss and
carry the positions. Long trades can be opened above 5487
with a stop loss at Pivot (5405),
S1 (First support) is @ 5383(sensex: 17897)
S2 (Second support ) is @ 5353(sensex:17806)
S3 (Third support) is @ 5331(sensex: 17734)
Significance
S1 (5383) is important level to be watched any close
Below it will signify resumption of down move.
Monday’s low at 5348 and S3 (5331) are very
Significant levels to be watched for next few
Trading sessions. If Nifty breaks them on closing basis
We are headed to the 5220/5177 levels indicating
A fresh lower range.
All long positions should be surrendered below 5330
And fresh shorts can be built.
VXI (Volatility Index)
Pivot is @ 25.16
Today was relatively a ‘Flat Day’ without much volatility.
Unless volatility is reduced Nifty will not consolidate
In a range.
DMAs(Day Moving Avrage)
5DMA @ 5429(sensex: 18078)
20DMA @ 5462(sensex: 18198)
40 DMA @ 5471(sensex: 18228)
50DMA @ 5519(sensex: 18416)
200 DMA @ 5679 (sensex: 18920)
50 Day Exponential Av. @ 5541(sensex: 18483)
200Day Exponential Av. @ 5591(sensex:18465)
Significance
Nifty has closed below all the short term moving averages
(5/20and 40) indicating that, we are not out of woods.
Unless Nifty closes above 50day, simple and
Exponential, average bulls can not think of an up move
To resume.
COMMENTS
I have been constantly expressing, that, it is very difficult
To predict market moves
Because, there is a basic structural damage to the
Environment of equity market
There is no incentive for traders and investors to put
Their money in stock market,
Because there are better Opportunities than stock
Market, giving better appreciation
For example
Gold, Fix- deposits with good Interest rates,
Bonds and commodity market
Stock market valuations are over valued as compared to
The performance of Industrials
This is why ‘Equity market’ (In India
Has become a ‘list less’ place for investors
A) Global geo political turmoil
Rising Crude oil prices
Improved economy of Developed markets
High commodity prices
And
Japanese calamity
B) Rising Inflation in India
Fear of multiple Interest rate hikes
Inability of Government to push
Policies related to Industrial growth
High input cost, increasing labor cost
And difficulty in raising cheap credit
Leading to compression of margins and
Slowing of growth in next quarter
And multiple scams
All this has created an ‘unexpressed’ feeling of ‘insecurity’
in the minds of investors leading to a ‘subdued sentiment’
Pressure of all these things has led ‘Passive Gravitation’ of
Markets to lower levels
It will need a strong trigger to lift sentiment of traders and
Investors. Which in near future looks out of vision.
All this is responsible for current ‘Ranging’ movements
In stock market
STOCK SPECIFICS
Buy for short term trading, with proper stop loss
ACC
RIL
HUL
ITC
Rel.Capitol
Lupin
Guj Ambuja cement
SAIL
Sell
Hindalco @ 192 tgt 178 (SL @ 202
PFC @220 tgt 198 (SL @ 224)
TCS @1072 tgt 1054(SL @ 1102)
Positional and Long term Buy
Escorts
GMDC
EMCO
Artson Eng.
Arvind
Bata
Persistant System
Elecon Engg.
Sparc
Lanco Infra
Amtec Auto.
Everest Kanto
Tutis Tech
BILT
Welspun India
Keep proper stop loss for positional trades
IMPRESSION
LOOSING GROUND
Thanks
Dr. Vasant Bele
All the views are personal, invest after consulting experts
No comments:
Post a Comment