RESILIENT

Dear Investors

Market on Monday started on a cautious note with a small down number

Easing of oil prices and tension of Japanese catastrophe made bulls to

Take Nifty at higher levels of resistance at 5505, which led to short

Covering by bears. Nifty moved above 5530 to close at 5531.Once

above 5480 Nifty never looked back and closed with gains indicating

good amount of Resilience. 

What Next  

 ‘BUOYANCY’ across the sector was the key of today’s trading. It started with

RIL, ONGC and Reliance capitol (News driven) and was followed by Banks,

Financials and Metals. Though the volumes were low ‘Sentiment’ was high

Nifty closed near high of the day at 5531(High was 5537)

Nifty has crossed one more barrier towards the 200DMA (5668), now is the

Real test of bulls. 5606(200 Exponential DMA) is the next hurdle, once it

Is taken out on closing basis there will be a rally on the back of ‘Short

Covering’ leading to 5668(200DMA< simple) Traders and investors

Should watch these levels in coming days as we approach towards

‘RBI’s monetary policy on 17^th March.  It is expected to be market

Friendly (Rate rise of only 25bps). Any thing beyond that will heart

The on going sentiment and rally, so keep your fingers crossed.

Punters and speculators will try to reach the goal (5606/5668) before

Policy is out. But all depends on what happens to oil, Europe and

Japanese situation over night

Levels to Watch

UPWARD: 5580/5606/5668

DOWNWARD: 5480/5449/5400

Technical View

PIVOT FOR NIFTY: 5500          

R1 (First resistance) is @ 5567(sensex: 18549)

R2 (Second resistance) is @ 5603(Sensex: 18660)

R3 (Third resistance) is @ 5670(sensex: 18857)

Significance

Any   close above R2 (5603) will take Nifty to next logical

Target of 200DMA at 5668 which is nearer to the R3 (5670)

Long traders should keep stop loss at 5603

Short traders can create fresh shorts at and above 5603

And carry up to 5668.

R3 (5670) will be a game changer, any close above it with

Good volume will take Nifty to 5760

S1 (First support) is @5464(sensex: 18241)

S2 (Second support) is @ 5397(sensex; 18044)

S3 (Third support) is @ 5361(sensex: 17933)

Significance:

Pivot at 5500 will be the first support level, closing

Below that will take Nifty to S1 (5464), Short traders should

Keep S1 as an immediate stop loss for day trade while

Positional short traders should place stop loss at S2 (5397)

Any close below S3(5367) can be used to create fresh short

Positions with a stop loss at S1 (5464)

Any close below S1 (5464) will signal termination of the

On going rally so all long trades should be covered.

VXI (Volatility index)

Pivot is at: 23.67

VXI has dropped below 24 indicating a firm sentiment

In market. As long as VXI does not rise above 26/28

Levels one can go with the current trend.

DMAs(Day moving average)

5DMA@5490 (sensex: 18326)

20DMA @ 5455(sensex: 18217)

40DMA@ 5500(18359)

50DMA @ 5599(sensex: 18689)

200DMA @ 5667(sensex: 18881)

200 Exponential DMA @5606(sensex: 18697)

Significance

In an upward trending market 200 Exponential DMA

Becomes the first important level to be watched, last

Few trades were reverted from same level so it becomes

An important level. Once 5606 is taken out on closing basis

With good volume next target will be 200 simple DMA AT

5667.

All long positions should have a target of 5606 or stop loss

At 20DMA (5455)

In near term closing below 40DMA will indicate threat to

On going rally

COMMENTS

Long positions can be carried till Nifty is trading above

5421 or 5630

Traders should be careful as Nifty approaches 200DMA at

5668, there will be selling pressure between 5630 and 5568.

Long traders should have strict stop loss at Monday’s close,

5531/5505 levels.

Bears advised not to trade short till Nifty is nearer to 5635 or

Breaks below 5480

Investors (long term) should wait for long term purchases till

5668 is crossed or 5480 is breached on downside

Stock specific

RIL

ICICI Bank

M&M

NTPC

AXIS Bank

HUL

ITC

ONGC

PFC

PTC

SAIL

Sterlite

Ashok Leyland

Sintex Industry

IPCA Lab.

Federal Mugal

Kalpana Ind.

Sanjivani Parenterals

Hercules Hoist

Everest Kanto

S. Kumar Nation

Sharp Ind.

BILT

Globus Spirit

Artson Eng.

V-Guard

EMCO

Elgi Equipment

GMDC

All above stocks can be traded as positional trades

(5 to 10 days) As well as long term investment

Buys in small installments at every fall

IMPRESSION

Market had retraced thrice from 5600 levels and Bounced

Back four times from 5400 level, now it is to be observed

If bulls can push Nifty beyond 5630.

As market has remained BUOYANT irrespective of

The worst events and high inflation, high oil prices

It looks to scale above important level of 5630/5667

Thanks

Dr. Vasant Bele

All the views are personal, invest after consulting experts