One Step Forward......

Dear Investors

Indian stock markets continued its up ward journey for

Two successive days. Nifty after opening with a small

Gain and crawled painfully to reach day’s top at 5484.

There was a moment in market when fall in Nifty to 5400

Created shivers in the minds of traders and speculators.

Ultimately Nifty closed  nearer the top of the day(5484)

At 5480, important resistances on up move.

Today’s levels

Nifty: Open: 5411/High: 5484/Low: 5401/Close: 5480

Sensex: Open: 17972/High: 18218/Low: 17950/Close: 18206

What Next?

Markets moved ‘One Step Forward’ on Tuesday’s gains

Towards important resistance level of 5515.It looks like

 to be consolidating  with a support at lower level of

5400 and upper limit at 5515. Market participants are

Supposed to wait and watch for next move of the market

As we approach expiry on 31^st March. Though volumes were low

It was a broad base participation, probably some short

Covering and some, fresh buying.

Levels to watch

UPWARD: 5515/5567/5590

DOWNWARD: 5420/5380/5330

5567 is very crucial level, any move above this will

Indicate a strong up move while any close below

5421 will indicate termination of on going up move.

Technical View

Pivot For Nifty: 5455

R1 (First resistance) is @ 5509

R2 (Second resistance) is @ 5538

R3 (Third resistance) is @ 5592

Significance

R3 (5592) will be a significant level, if taken out next

Move will be to test 200DMA

For up move to be continued Nifty must remain above

R2 (5538)

All long positions can be carried up to 5538 with a stop

At 5449

Short positions can be carried up to 5592 with a stop at

5603

S1 (First support) is @ 5426

S2 (Second support) is @ 5372

S3 (Third support) is @5343

Significance

S1 (5426), will be vital for Nifty , if broken then the

The on going up move will be at risk.

Any close below S2 (5372) will open possibilities of

Nifty going in a fresh down move with immediate

Support at S3 (5343).

All long positions should have stop loss at S1(5426)

Fresh shorts can be created at and below S2 (5372)

With a stop at and above S1 (5426)

VXI(Volatility Index)

Pivot is @:21.43

There is a significant drop in volatility, indicating

Stabilization in Nifty

DMAs(Day moving averages)

5DMA @ 5422(18042)

20DMA @ 5477(18175)

40 DMA @ 5455(18203)

50DMA @ 5509 (18382)

200DMA @ 5681(18926)

50Day Exponential @ 5538 (18472)

200Day Exponential @5589(18637)

Significance

Pivot is at 40DMA (5455) indicative of a short term

 Up move in Nifty. Immediate resistance for Nifty will

Be at 50 Day Exponential average at 5538. Any close

Above 200Day Exponential average (5589) will take Nifty

To test the level of 5603 and 5681(200DMA)

There will be lot of selling pressure at 200 DAY

Exponential average at 5589, leading to the support at

50 Day exponential at 5538. Close below 50DMA (5509)

Will signify termination of on going up trend

Global Markets

European shares edged higher on Wednesday

, The Asian indices ended mixed on Wednesday.

 Indices like Hang Seng, Nikkei and Kospi fel

l whereas Shanghai Composite, Jakarta Composite

 and Straits Times surged.

US Market

 Dow up by 67, NASDAQ up by 14 and S&P up by 3

COMMENTS

Now is the real test of Bulls, For a real change in sentiment

Nifty should close above 5515 during next few sessions.

Only then and then we can expect markets to test 5567/5595

Levels which will be trend changer. Once Nifty is beyond

200 Day Exponential moving average it will be knocking

The doors of 5600 and 5681(200DMA). There will be lot of

Selling pressure around 5600 which may take Nifty back to

Lower levels, Nifty should not go below 5480 in its downward

Journey.

All these ifs and buts are crucial in establishing the trend.

Though Nifty has taken ‘One Step Forward’ in its journey

 Towards 200DMA there are number of hurdles in coming

Days …

 We will start with earning season from mid April, as

 Expressed in yesterday’s blog , earnings are likely to be

Affected by number of things

Crude, Crisis in Middle East,

Libya, Yemen and Conditions in Japan

. Likely defaults in euro zone economy

 At home….

Possibility of increase in interest rates and Inflation

So all those National and Global villains will

 Be affecting the progress of Indian stock market, so

Even though market has taken moved in an upward

Direction in last few days, it

Has to be seen, where it lands in next few trading

sessions . So do not Step in hurriedly to create

 long positions, be cautious.

Stock Specific

Day Trades

ACC

Guj Ambuja

Kotak Bank

Indusind Bank

RIL

Lupin

Short to positional trades (These can be converted in to

Long term investment buys at every lower level)

Globus Spirit

Empee Distillaries

Usha Martin (55)

Fluidomat(25)

Compuage Info

Hexaware(56

Sonat(32))

SBT(741)

Sharp Ind(34)

Philips carbon

Graphaite India(82)

Artson Eng.(50)

Celestial Lab(29)

EMCO(62)

Elecon Eng.

Sree Rayalseema (49)

Pacific Ind(188)

Short term traders can keep stoploss at 5%

And carry forward positions till Nifty is in

An up move.

IMPRESSION

Cautiously Bullish

Thanks

Dr. Vasant Bele

All the views are personal, invest after consulting experts