' Stellar(outstanding) Performance'

Dear Investors

A stellar performance by number of large caps from all the

 Sectors, FMCG, Banking, Metals, Oil and Gas along with number

Mid and large cap stocks took markets beyond important

Resistance level of 5550 and closed above that. It was a broad base

rally in stocks  with good volume and advance decline ratio.

It was not only Indian equities but all over the globe markets

Were in a ‘Buoyant’ mood. Indian markets shrugged off the

Below expectation GDP numbers and rising crude prices to close

Above 5550.

Data For the day

Indices

Open: 5492(18266)

High: 5571 (18526)

Low: 5489(18266)

Close: 5560(18503)

Advance Decline: 1831:1001

Turnover: 1 50 000 cr

Stocks from

FMCG..HUL,Dabur,ITC,Marico

Infrastructure;Punjlloyed,Suzlon,JP Associate ,Rel. Infra

Banking, SBI, HDFC

RUL

Sabero organics, Camlin, Coal India,Raymond were some of the

Gainers

Global markets including Shanghai and Europe, were also up beat

Crude was on rise

$ Index dropped to 74.5

Gold and Silver along with other commodities were subdued

What Next

The main question is ?

Is it a counter trend rally in a ‘Bear phase’ or a trend reversal

 Fundamental and technical analysts are were not able to

 answer this question, only time will answer it. There have

 been number of ‘Bouncing’ incidences in falling markets

in last few months. Fundamental realities and even technical

dat does not indicate a ‘Reversal’ of trend in short term.Investors

and traders should go along with the present trend with caution

and booking profits at every higher levels.Market participants

should not get carried away till there are ‘Confirmed’ changes

in ‘Fundamental’environment and ‘Technical’ signals

Levels to watch

UPWARD: 5591(18597) /5622(18691) /5655(18885)

DOWNWARD: 5515(18330) /5470(18210) /5420(18070)

Technical View

Pivot at: 5540(18431)

Nifty is trading beyond all the short term Moving averages like

5 Day Expo.Avr @ 5482(18268)

20 Day Expo.Avr. @ 5504(18359)

Nifty has crossed 40 Day exponential Average (5559)

 By thin margin at 5560 indicative of short term up trend

Next resistance for Nifty will be at, 200 Day Expo. Aver. @ 5585

And 5591.

Once above 200 Day Exponential level Nifty may move beyond

5600 levels to 5650 which will act as a stiff barrier

Selling at 5600/5650 levels may bring Nifty back to the

Supports at 5515(18330) and 5480(18280) levels. Further

Supports are at vital level of 5380 and 5330

Technically, this looks like to be a intermediate rally in a

Down trend, unless Nifty moves above 200DMA @ 5754

And close above it with high volume it will not be called

As a ‘Reversal’ of the trend.

Till that time 5350 will act as an ‘Intermediate’ Bottom and

5660/5700 as Top.

Market Strategy

(Number of recommendations during last few days have

Give substantial returns, like

M and M

RIL

ICICI Bank

ITC

Dabur

Raymond

BOB

Yes Bank

Ador Fontech

Camlin

Sabero Organic

Alok

Arvind

R.Com

GMDC

Ramkey Infra

Petronet

BOSCH

V Guard

Ranbaxy

And so on, Investors are advised to book part profits at

Every higher levels and reenter at lower levels)

Go along the trend

Book part profits at higher levels

Follow Nifty and Index levels while positioning

Fresh longs can be built till Nifty is above 5505

Carry all the longs up to 5560 and keep a stop loss

At 5420

Traders can carry positions for next day as long as Nifty

Remains above 5505

No shorts at current level

Existing short positions should have a stop loss at

5605

5622-5660 should be treated as ‘No trade zone’

Fresh shorts can be created above 5650 and Below

5470

Stock specific

RIL

L and T

BHEL

Sterlite

Hindalco

R.Com

Rel. Infra

ITC

Bata

BOSCH

Voltas

Hind Zinc

Lupin

Celestial Lab

Ador Weilding

Artson Engg.

Sharp Industries

JP Associate

Polaris

NIIT Tech

Tata Chemicals

SKF

Keep stop loss and increase ir at every higher levels of Nifty

COMMENTS

There is no change in ground realities so as to make

Markets bullish in longer term perspective. Rallies like this

Are known to take place in a ‘Down trend’ so investors

Should not get carried away and protect their positions

With proper stop loss or book profits from level to level.

Unless there are changes in

Inflationary conditions

Bank Rates

Crude Prices

Good monsoon

And most important

Government’s stand on number of policies, mainly related

To capitol expenditure in Infra and Power sector……..

Till this happens…….

There will not be ‘Perceptible’ change in ‘Fundamentals’

So as to bring back FIIs ,DIIs and Retail investors to

Indian markets.

So take all these rallies on their merits and in the

Light of ‘Techno fundamental’ perspective before

Building large positions for long term

There are good opportunities in number of mid cap and

Small cap stocks, which can be explored at every fall to create

Good long-term portfolio from two angles

A)     Good stocks for wealth creation

B) For ’Dividend’ portfolio, one can buy good dividend

            Paying companies at every fall in market

IMPRESSIONS

FINGERS CROSSED

Thanks

Dr. Vasant Bele

All the views are personal, invest with caution and

After consulting experts

'Sedate' under pressure

Dear Investor

On Monday

Market opened with Nifty at 5493, plus 17 point and Sensex 54

Points at 18329. Nifty added few more points to move beyond 5500

During first few minutes and then all through the day remained

‘Sedate’ under pressure of profit booking, to close few points down.

Turnover was pathetic Mid caps did well though did well,

Large cap stocks and Index majors like, RIL, ONBC, and SBI along with

MandM,Bharti,HP, BP…..all were subdued and dropped few points

Here and there. At the end markets closed with minor losses in

Nifty and sensex.

Data for the Day:

Indices

Open: 5493(18319)

High: 5509(18380)

Low: 5458(18199)

Close: 5473(18232)

Advance: Decline: 1629:1150

Turnover: 70,000cr

What Next

Market has been showing high amount of disinterest since last few

 Sessions, there is no cash base buying from retail and DII. On the

 Contrary at every higher level is used to exit, this does not allow

Markets to move in upper direction. Retails have burnt their fingers in

 Last six months and now are not prepared to take risks till there is

Some ‘Fundamental Good News’ helping market to make a strong

Case for purchasing at a highly ‘attractive valuations’.

Earning season is coming to an end, on a disappointing note,

Elections are over, Global events also have been subdued,

There are no Triggers on either side. In such conditions,

Absence of buying and disinterest, market may remain in

A range or it will fall to lower levels in coming days

Today’s GDP number and Monsoons arrival in Keral may cause

Minor flutters but investors and traders are waiting for Bigger

Good news, in absence of which technicals will be of only

Help to trade in market

Levels to watch

UPWARD: 5503(18341) /5557(18522)/5606(18698)

DOWNWARD: 5420(18080)/5380(17930)/5330(17700)

Technical View

There is no change in technical levels

Pivot at: 5479(18270)

Immediate resistance will be around 5489(18321) which is 20 DMA

And 5509(18380) which Was Monday’s top and close to 20 Day expo.

Average at 5498(18344)

Nifty has to move decisively above 5536(18468) which is 30 Day Exp.

Average, without which there are chances of moving towards 5600

As long as Nifty is below 200 Day Exponential average @5585(18622)

And100 Day Exp. Average @ 5622(18747)it will not be out of ,Correction’

Phase.In absence of fresh buying markets may drift to lower support levels

Like 5440/5400/5380

Once 5330 is broken on closing basis markets will be headed towards

Fresh range, lower, of 5310-5220-5177

Market strategy

(Last few day's recommendations on stock
 like….

Ranbaxy

RIL
ICICI Bank

R.Com

L&T

Dabur

BOSCH

Sintex

HDIL

Hind Zinc

Ador Fontech

SPIC

Suryalata Spinning

Arvind

Sumeet Ind.

GMDC

Everest Kanto

Gateway Distripark

Camlin

Sabero organic

Tecpro Systems

 and many more have yielded good gains

I have been suggesting traders to book profits at every higher

Levels.)

For the day

No fresh shorts as long as the short term trend is up

Go long with a stop loss at 5380 and target of 5556

Treat 5556 -5605 as no trading zone

Existing shorts should have stop loss at 5530(closing basis)

And target at 5330

Fresh shorts can be created at 5556 or below 5380

Do not carry trades for next day, book early profits

No long term investments till next fall

Stock Specifies

RIL

ICICI Bank

Kotak Bank

Cipla

R.Com

NTPC

M&M

BOSCH (6900)

LIC Housing (224)

Sintes(189)

Ador Weilding(167)

V Guard (202)

Voltas(167)

Elecon Eng. (70)

Lovable Lineri(302)

Polaris (189)

Hexaware(64)

Suryavanshi Spinning (23)

Bartronic(60)

Nelcast(94)

Mundra Port(152)

Pipava Ship (82)

Himmat singka Sidek(33)

Hercules Hoist (232)

All these should have 3 to 5% down stop loss.

COMMENTS

GDP Number will be out today, it will cause temporary

Fluctuations in markets. As long as there is no fresh

Trigger for cash base buying markets are likely to stay

Docile. People are waiting for ‘Good news’ while most of

The ‘Bad News’ is discounted, Volume contraction is indicative

Of loss of trust in markets. As has been reputedly written, unless

‘Fundamentals’ improve and reflect in earnings of companies,

 Leading to FII and Retail participation the trend will not change

In a positive direction.

EGoM/ GDP /RBI meeting etc are not the real triggers, they create

Temporary ripples in markets, unless there is some drastic policy

Decisions on reforms front or FDI participation, Land acquisition,

Banking etc money will not flow back or there has to be some

Changes in Global Economy. All this will take some more time.

Till that markets will be in a ‘Turbulent’ state

Those who are long term investors can make small purchases

At every fall and stay invested for 12 to 18 months.

IMPRESSION

DIRECTIONLESS

Thanks

Dr Vasant Bele

All the views are personal, invest with caution and after 

Consulting experts

(Feeling) Up Beat

                                                                 Monday 30^th May 2011

Dear Investors

Friday was ‘a day of relief’’ for traders and market observers

After few days fall markets closed on positive note on the first

Day of next (June) series. There was buying across the sectors,

leading to a close above major resistance of 5470(18250)at

 5476(18266) with a gain on daily basis but with weekly loss.

Giving an ‘up beat’ feeling for next week.

Data for the day

Indices

Open: 5413(18105)

High: 5485(18298)

Low: 5413(18087)

Close: 5476(18266)

Advance: Decline: 1731:937

Turnover: 1, 50 000 cr

What Next:

 On Friday market has closed on a strong note at the highest

 Point of the day. It was second day for Nifty to close in positive

Territory. Bulls have managed to take Nifty above an important

Resistance level of 5470/5480. It will have to be seen how market

Behaves in next few days, the main question is, was it only

Because of short covering or due to fresh cash base buying by

FII and retail investors?

Next few days trading will be crucial for Indian stock markets

In absence of either Positive or Negative triggers, how markets

 Behave?

It can be answered to some extent by technical levels….

Watch the levels: Technically Nifty is at a ‘Crucial’ level,

If it moves to close above 5550/5605 then one can say that

Market is out of wood, if not, and it starts correcting to the levels

Below 5400 to say 5330/5300, one will have to conclude that it was,

A ‘Dead cat ‘bounce. In that case it may test the lower level at 5177

Levels to watch

UPWARD: 5503(18347) /5559(18500)/5605(18690)

DOWNWARD: 5420(18090)/5330(17825)/5310(17728)

Technical View

 Pivot at: 5458(18217)

Nifty has moved above short term moving averages like

5 DMA @5387(17981)

1 DMA @5413(18068)

20 DMA @ 5471(18262)

Next resistance for Nifty will be at 5503(18347) and 5567(18569)

This is 20 Day exponential average.

Unless Nifty moves above 5585(200 Day Exp.Ave.) and 5630

 Markets will not be qualified to call as ‘Reverted’ from on going

 Correction

There is a high possibility that Nifty will start retracing from 5605

And will find support at 5400, if it does not hold there then the

Next support is at 5300/5280

Any close below 5310 will  set in panic selling, leading to the

Lower levels of 5177,

For the time being 5177 should hold, if not we are headed for

‘Bear Market’

Market Strategy

Ride the trend with long positions in large cap stocks

Keep stop loss at 5330

Book daily profits \Do not carry longs for next day

All long positions should be booed at and around 5565

No fresh shorts

Existing shorts can be carried up to 5550

Keep 5550/5605 as no trading zone(fresh)

Fresh shorts can be created at and above 5605 or below 5330

With a stop at 5700/5225 levels

Long term investors are advised not to take fresh investment

Positions in this ‘Pull Up’

Wait till, either Nifty moves above 5700/5755 or falls

Below 5330

All falls below 5400 can be used to make fresh long term

Investment buys in small lots with a view of 12 to 15 months.

COMMENTS

Technically, on the charts, the ‘pull back’ looks to be nearing

Its top. It may pull some distance in absence of fundamental

Setbacks, but as long as there is no fresh buying from FII/DII and

Retail investors, it will not sustain higher levels, Net net FII were

Sellers in last week and there was no cash base buying from retails.

In such circumstances Nifty will require some ‘Push up’ trigger, to

 Scale higher levels above 200 DMA at 5755

At present except Monsoon, there are no positive triggers locally.

While....

Global factors, on the contrary, are on Negative side for Indian market

As....

Crude has again started rallying

US Economic data is not encouraging

Europe is on the verge of ‘Default’

China is slowing down

$ Index is rising

Locally at least most of the Negatives are in valuations, but

It is not sufficient to take markets beyond 5600 levels, only

If

Monsoon is good

Inflation comes down

Interest rates stabilize

Government takes some bold policy decisions related to

Banking reforms

FDI in retail

Land reforms

Divestment of PSUs

Oil and Gas subcidy

Ferilizer rate policy

And so on

Then and then markets will get some booster to move up,

 With some strength, otherwise it is likely to ‘Fall Passively’

Lower and lower or remain ‘suspended’ in range bound state

(May call it ‘consolidation’)

Stock specific

All long trades should have stop loss with Nifty levels

RIL(945)

ICICI Bank(1046)

HCL Tech(508)

M&M(700)

ITC(188)

TCS(1141)

L&T(1635)

Hindalco(196)

Lupin(445)

Ranbaxy(510)

Bharti(372)

R. Com(84)

Sintex @ 180

Ramkey Infra @ 281

Everesr Kanto @ 82

GMDC @ 139

HDIL @ 161

Pipava Ship @ 81

Hind Zinc @ 134

Celestial Lab @ 31

Sharp @ 50

SPIC @ 26

Dujodwala Product @ 36

Artson Engg. @ 41

Sumeet Ind @ 31

NIIT Tech @ 186

BOB @ 830

Yes Bank@ 280

United Phos @ 160

Tecpro systems@281

Elecon Engg @68

EMCO @ 59

India Glycol @112

Ador Fontech @117

All these can be converted in long term investment portfolio

Stock and added at all dips

IMPRESSION

DIFFICULT RIDE

Read Weekly market analysis as a separate article

 Thanks

Dr. Vasant Bele

All the views are personal, invest with caution and after

Consulting experts

What Next

                                                WEEKLY   ANALYSIS

                                             (30 May To 4^th June 2011)

Dear Investors

 Last week was one of the most volatile week. Markets

 Swung from down moves to up on the back of, good

(Few) and bad (most) news and events. Good part was, week

Ended on a positive note. Nifty swung 150 point

During the week ( Sensex 160 Points)in 5328 and 5486 level

Ultimately the week closed on a positive note,

But, in a Negative territories as far as week on week

Is compared. The low during the week was at

5328, which was most important support level

Now. It has to be seen whether it is holds the gains during

Coming week or not?

It was the week of results by Indian Major corporate

Houses, most of them barring few came out with

Disappointing results, leading to some doubts regarding

Growth projections

. Volatility was at its high and Global

Markets were in bad shape, worries related to

Europe, Greece, Spain and Italy, erupting on the horizon

Of world economy.

Chinese monitory tightening and lower PMI data (Purchasing

Mangers Index) created shivers in world markets, and

Commodity prices

US housing and Jobless claim data was also disappointing

And talk related to QE2 withdrawal led to ups and down

In Dow and S&P,

Most important Indicators were

Fall in Commodity prices

Fall In crude prices

US GDP Lower

Chinese PMI lower

$ Index moving to 76

Rupee getting strong

Indian GDP projected lower

Indian Inflation on rise

 The news from Federal meeting, Euro zone debt default and

 Chinese manufacturing growth and Results from Indian

Industrial houses kept markets, all over the world, in Volatile

 And Nervous state of mind

Indian markets saw one of the bad weeks in last few and Nifty

Tested the long term support level at 5330, which is a make

Or break level for India markets

 Market(Nifty) Have, technically, gone in to lower top and lower bottom’

Trend and is at a vital stage of going in to a bear market or

Reverting to an up trend. but , All depends on

Local Factors like..

Inflation in next few weeks

June RBI policy

Monsoon’s arrival and progress

Remaining result season

Governments stand on Oil and Gas Pricing policy

Governments stand on different FPOs

Governments stand on FDI in retail and so on

FII Inflow to emerging markets and India

Globally factors..

 We are still not out of ‘Euro’ factor

 EQ2 withdrawal or continuation of stimulus package by US Fed

 authority

 $Index

Crude has done ‘U’ turn, has to see how far it moves on

Commodity prices

Effect of Chinese monitory tightening on growth and commodity prices

US Data on: Jobless claim and ISM index( which is 58 at present)

(Institute of Supply Management Manufacturing index,

 A monthly index released by the Institute of Supply Management

 which tracks  the amount of manufacturing activity that occurred in the

 previous month. This data is considered a very important and trusted

 economic measure. If the index has a value below 50,due to a decrease

 in activity, it tends to indicate an economic recession, especially if the

 trend continues over several months. A value substantially above 50

 likely indicates a time of economic growth. The values for the index

 can be between 0 and 100)

COMMENTS

All in all

Along with India, world looks a lot more vulnerable than what it was

Last year , with number of negative events and data looming on the

Head it could become really risky and volatile during next few weeks.

Slowing global growth

Slowing FII flows

Increasing inflation and rising bank rates in India

Government’s apathy as far policy front is concerned

Revision in GDP on lower side

And many more local factors like 2G,Land Acquisition, Political

Instability, Postponement of divestment…

 So What Next is the real question, because 

All these will keep Indian markets to perform a ‘Balancing Act’

(Tilting Negetive balance to a positive one)

It has to be seen how far Investors and Speculators manage the

Markets to keep Indices above ‘water levels’ or they get drowned

In the depth of uncertainties is the prime question

The only hope of Life is, Monsoon, Monsoon and Monsoon

Technically:

Technically market is on the border line of ‘Bear Phase’

And ‘Bullish reversal’ Last week Nifty bounced back from

Most vital support level of 5330(5328, Intra day) and then

Went on closing above important resistance at 5450.

Market movements in next week will show whether this

Is a ‘Bounce back’ from over sold positions or it was (fall

Up to 5328) was a correction in ‘Upend’

Next resistance for Nifty is @ 5515(18180), 5595(18665) and

5609

Nifty has closed above all the short term moving averages

Like:

5 DMA, 10 DMA and 20DMA indicating that the short term

Trend is up.

The first stop at upper level may be at 5559(18344), where Nifty had

Remained stagnant for long before falling,

 Unless Nifty moves beyond 200 Day Exponential average

@ 5581(18611), 100DMA @ 5595(18663) and50 DMA @ 5630(18770),

It will not be called as ‘Reversal of the trend’

More important than all the above ‘Up moves’ is ……

Where Nifty moves? in case of continuation of further

Selling and shorting, leading to a  ‘Down move’, Nifty will

Have

Support at 5380(18006) and 5330(17800)

, AS LONG AS Nifty maintains above these levels

Market is in a position to get ‘Reverted’ to an ‘Up trend’

The ‘Key’ for up trend is 5330/5310 range (17800/17728)

Any close below 5310(17728) will take Nifty to lower levels and ‘Bear Market’.

5280 and 5224can give some support to Nifty’s downward journey but

Real support will be at 5177(17296) (Feb. 11 Intra days low)

Technically indicators suggest that

Market is headed lower, when and how fast is to be seen.

Technical indicators like

Nifty forming Lower tops and Lower bottoms

Nifty remaining below 200DMA and 200 Day Exponential average

Breaking of March 2009 low or trend line

Taking support at 100 week moving average @ 5300

Getting nearer to the recent lows

Rising Volatility

Higher volumes on Down Days

Are supported by the fundamental facts

Like

Lower participation by Retails, FII withdrawing money out of Indian

Markets, Rising $ Index, Increasing Inflation, Lower than expected

Growth and earning by corporate

Global problems

All this has created nervousness in stock markets, events during

Next few days will decide future for next phase

So watch for

5300/5310 for Nifty on downside

5515/5550 for Nifty on upside

Any move beyond these levels will be decisive for the ‘Future’

Of Indian markets in ‘Medium term’ period

Market Strategy during the week

Go long (Buy) as long as Nifty remains above 5400

Keep stop loss at 5330 and book profits around 5550

For all fresh as well as existing long positions

5515-5550 should be treated as ‘No trade zone’ (For fresh

Trades)

Existing short positions should have a stop loss of 5515.

At current levels avoid going shorts

Fresh shorts can be created above 5553 and at and below 5300

With a target of 5220/5177

Long term investors should wait for buying till the ‘Bounce’ get

Converted in to an up trend above 5706/5754

Or

There is panic selling leading to Nifty levels of 5250 and below

All long term purchases should be in small lots and for a

Period of 12 to 18 Months

A list of shares to be bought for long term will be posted at

Appropriate time

 

     IMPRESSION

After going through the…….

   ‘Fundamental Facts and’ Technical Data’

  ‘Local Environment and Global Factors’

  ‘Desires and prevailing sentiments’ of Investors

  ‘Interest and Inclination of individual investors and FII’

I personally have a

   ‘THUMBS DOWN’    impression

Read Market for Monday as a separate article

Thanks

Dr. Vasant Bele

All the views are personal, invest with caution and after

Consulting experts