Balancing Act....(without support) (Weekly Report)

Dear Investors

Last week was, week of events, like Expiry, Economic Survey,

Railway Budget and Libyan crisis leading to oil rising to the mark

of 100$ per barrel. All this was responsible for catastrophic fall

in Indian stock market leading to ‘Fear and Flight’. There were spells

 of ‘pain and panic’ in traders and investors leading to very high

selling in cash and F&O positions. This brought Nifty to important

support level of 5200(Intraday day low of 5242).Nifty swinging in

300 points on concerns of oil prices, Inflation and Geopolitical

Tensions.Some respite was given by ‘Positive language’ of  ‘Economic

Survey’leading to cover some lost ground. Nifty  closed in green on

Friday at 5303.

NEXT  WEEK (28^th Feb.11 to 4^th March.11)

Monday is the day of ‘Union Budget’,  it has been written and said by

Number of Analysts and Expert’s, that there are ‘least Expectations’ from

This year’s budget. To me it looks like a ‘Pseudo Feeling’. On the background

Of Carnegie in last week there are ‘Great Expectations’  at ‘Subconscious’

Levels of every one related to ‘Economy’, ‘Stock Markets’And Indian as well as

 Overseas investors,

 only thing is,’Every body is playing a safe game by saying, that  ‘there are no

 Expectations’. But the fact is, there are……….

Like

GST/DTC Draft

Subsidiary Distribution

Oil and Gas Policy

FDI In retail

Tax Reforms

Spending On Infra structure

Fertilizer Policy …….etc

Everything is vital for

Growth or No growth

Inflation and Interest rates

Fiscal Deficit and GDP

And

Current account Defect

Finance minister has  to do a ‘Balancing Act’ between all these issues

 to keep economy growing with some speed. 

For  that matter a small bad Or some good news will make a lot of

 difference to Stock Markets’,Bond Market’ and also’ Currency Market’.

Stock markets are at a crucial border of  'Bear or Bullish’ zone

.Market participants are waiting for ‘Healing Touch’ of ‘Magician

Mukharjee’

Watch For

Levels like

5330/5380/5420 ON UPWARD DIRECTION, Nifty has to close above 5400

To show some hopes for ‘Bulls’. If Nifty manages to go beyond 5449 it will

be testing  5515/5557 levels . Even a small ‘Good News’ from budget will

help traders and speculators to take markets to higher levels

If Nifty does not sustain 5330/5380/5420 on upward journey it is likely to

Have first significant support at 5200/5170. Once Nifty falls below this

 Support then ‘Flood Gates’ will be open and next ranges will 5115/5060

And 4880 will not be impossible

COMMENTS

Traders and Investors should have small positions with strict stop loss on

Monday and next week. Even though markets bounce on Monday, the

ground realities ‘In land and globally’ are such, that it will be very difficult

 to Keep moving upward.

Once the euphoria of ‘Good News’ (If any) is over market will ‘Gravitate’ to

 Lower levels under the pressure of ‘Sentimental and Financial’ Damage

caused during last few days. So keep booking profits at all higher Levels till

5640 (200DMA)’ is taken out on closing basis

Traders are advised to have small positions with stoploss and minimum greed.

Investers (long term) should by in small installments at every fall below 5330.

Priority should be given to ‘large caps’ in Banking, Capital Goods, INFRA

STRUCTURE And  IT sectors. Auto, Pharma, Oil&Gas and Reality should be

 avoided for The time being.

.

Stocks to be considered are

L&T                          Polaris

BHEL                        NIIT Tech.

ICICI Bank                Glenmark

AXIS Bank                ITC

BOB                           Crompton

CANARA Bank         Hindalco

Infosys                        ACC

Guj. Ambuja

Some of the companies can be considered for Investment buy

In small installments at every fall

GMR Infra                    Indusind Bank

 V-Guard                       Saw Pipe

Yes Bank                      Lanco infra

Ramkey Infra               IDFC

Afutya Birla                 Sujana Towers

 EMCO                        Celestial Lab

Elecon Eng                   Arvind

Suryalata Spinning       Sintex Ind.                        

Sumeet Ind                   Ador Fontech

Artson Eng.                  Tutis Technology

IMPRESSION:

All is well as long as FM says ‘Do not worry  Be happy’

Or ‘Mai Hoo Na’!!!!!!!!!!!!

(Read 'Back To the Wall.. For Monday 28th Feb 11)

            Thnks

    Dr. Vasant Bele

  All the views are personal, invest after consulting experts