Changing Gears.....?

Dear Investors

As expected Stock markets remained choppy due to

Expiry, Results and news flow on 2G and RIL.

After opening on a flat note Nifty drifted down all the

Day to break the psychological support of 5800.At the

End Nifty closed below 5800 at 5785

Nifty lost 58 points and sensex 156.

Levels during the day

Nifty: Open: 5851 / High; 5856 /Low: 5776 /Close: 5785

Sensex: 19532 /High: 19542 /Low: 19265 /Close: 19292

Advances 1,134

Declines 1,802

Volume (Rs): 1,89000cr.

What Next

Markets are going through a ‘Crucial Phase’ of transition.

The direction will be decided by the Friday’s closing.

Nifty has just closed below 5800, now is the real test of

Bulls to keep it above an important level of 5720, which looks

Extremely difficult task.

   As against the threats from Negative fundamentals and News flow

  Like

           -Not so good a result season

           - Inflation getting storng

           -Oil prices moving up

           - Rising commodity prices

           -Fear of tight monitory policy by RBI

             With a rise of Intrest rate beyond 25 bps

     -Ghost of 2G threatening to corporates

     -Fight between RIL and DGH on KG out put

    - Reductin in FII flows

Nifty is trying to move on weak positives like

- Strong US markets

-Fed chairman keeping rates unchanged

-Falling $ Index below 73

- Very low ownership by HNI and retailers

Looking at the balance of the events it looks that we are

In a difficult period.

In a state of uncertain ‘Ground Realities’it is the Technical

data which can help us From moving on a wrong direction.

Levels to watch:

Upward: 5835(19467) / 5880(19643) /5909(19770)

Downward: 5720(19089) /5690(18980) /5660(18870)

Technical View

Important supportive Data:

Pivot at: 5805(19366)

R1@ 5835(19467) / R2@5885 (19643) /R3 @ 5915(19744)

S1@5755 (19190) /S2@5725 (19089) /S3@5675 (18913)

(R: Resistance level. S: Support level)

DMAs

5 DAM@5859 (19525)      5 Day Exponential@ 5823(19411)

20 DMA@5838 (19448)    20 Day Exponential@5793 (19301)

40DMA@ 5664(18874)    40 Day Exponential@5726 (19082)

200DMA @5745(19140)   200 Day Exponential@5616 (18723)

Significance

Nifty is moving below 5and 20 day moving averages indicatin

A short term weakness in market

Any up move during next few trading sessions will face a stiff

Resistance at R1(5835)/20DMA @ 5838.

Unless Nifty manages to close above R2@5885/5DMA@5859

 It will remain under the ‘Bear clouds’

The vital support is at S2 at 5725 /200DMA at 5745, any close

Below these levels will open the ‘Bear Flood gates’ with a support

At 40 DMA (5664) and 200Day Exponential at 5616

Once the Nifty is below 5660 chances of it sliding back to 5550

Are very high

Traders and investors should remember that in a down trend

Support levels are more important than resistance levels.

      Long traders are advised to keep strict stopds at successive

     Support levels while shrt traders are guard their positions

     At nearest resistance level

VXI (Volatility Index)

 Pivot at: 20.94

VXI is at a crucial level , any rise towards 24/25 will take markets

To lower levels because as has been stated VXI and Nifty run in

An opposite directions

 COMMENTS

Thursday’s   closing below 5800 has opened the possibility of

A short term down trend.

It looks that ‘Headwinds’ or ‘Fundamental’ realities have

Started overcoming the ‘Liquidity and Momentum’

There is reduction in FII flows, large cap stocks are correcting

 From unrealistic valuations and day by day breadth is becoming

Nigetive. All this is suggestive of Nifty ‘Gravitating’ towards lower

Levels due to pressure of ‘Fundamental’ concerns.

Inflation

Intrest rate Hike

Rising oil

Bad news flow from corporate and political front

 All these are pressing ‘Bulls against the ‘Wall’

 Only hopes for a turnaround are based on

Falling $ Index

Buoyant Global Market (Dow @ multi month high)

FII Flow and cash rich HNI, retailers

Good Monsoon

Traders and Speculators should exercise extreme caution

In day to day trades or positional trades. Keep close watch

On Global and Local events and Data

Long term investors should wait for markets to correct or

Rise beyond important technical levels for making fresh

Allocation of funds

Market Strategy:

All long positions should have a stop at 5720

Short traders should watch 5880 closely

Do not create fresh shorts at this level of 5770

As long as Nifty is trading above 200DMA at 5745

Long term investors can buy fundamentally strong

Stocks.

5690-5750 SHOULD BE TREATED AS NO TRADE

ZONE

Stock Specifics:

I will wait  till Friday’ close for suggesting stock specific

Buys or Sells

At this juncture it is better to hold your positions(Long or Short)

With stoploss or early profit booking.

IMPRESSION

FALLING( without parachute)

Thanks

Dr. Vasant Bele

All the views are personal, invest after consulting experts

Beyond Events? (Guess......)

Dear Investors

On the back of good global markets Nifty opened in green

And continued to move up to 5900(5892). As trading advance

Volatility pulled Nifty down to the support level of 5800(5819)

To recover at the end at 5833.

Weakness was across the sectors, mainly Cap goods, Tech,

RIL.  And ICICI Bank. It was SBI and ONGC which helped Nifty

To remain above 5800.

Levels during the day

Nifty: Open: 5884 /High: 5892 /Low: 5819 / Close: 5833

Sensex: Open: 19610 /High: 19633 / Low: 19412 /Close: 19448

Advance: Decline 1317:1558

Volume: 194,388 Cr.

 What Next

Today being the day of expiry, it is expected that there will be wield

Movements in Nifty. Nifty has closed above 5800 support,

It is finding difficult to cross the resistance of 5920. Unless the

Expiry is over and result season ends market may not find a

True direction, till that time traders and speculators have to go

By strict stop loss according to technical levels because we are

in a 'Battle Zone'of 5950/5690

Levels to Watch

Upward: 5877(19583) /5920(19718)/5950(19804)

Downward: 5804(19362) /5770(19276)/5720(19140)

Technical View

On going consolidation or a range move has got a resistance

And support level of 5959 / 5700.

Nifty is facing resistance at a higher level of 5920 and then at

5959. Once Nifty closes above 5959 it will test 6003/ 6050

Levels, from given movements in last few weeks and the

Strength shown at every fall Nifty is headed to 6003/6050

Range. It is the time which can not be predicted.

Nifty has not broken 5700 on down side during last few falls

Indicative of a strong support, unless it breaks down to 5660

On closing basis it will bounce to test the higher levels

Watch for the resistance at 5920 and support at 5720/5770

During the day.

VXI(Volatility Index)

Pivot at: 21.32

Today being the day of expiry VXI will take a center stage.

Markets may show large swings on either side.

DMAs(Day moving averages)

Nifty is above all the short and long term moving averages.

This indicates that the medium term trend is definitely up.

Short term moves depend on what happens to various events

During the day and coming few trading sessions.

Nifty has a strong support at 20DMA at 5830, and 20 Day

Exponential average at 5794. To maintain current up move

In near-term Nifty should remain above 200DMA at 5743.

As long as we are above 100DMA 5704 and 150 Day

Exponential average at 5664, there is no threat to the

On going rally.

Watch for

20Day Expo. @ 5794

100DMA @ 5704

100 Day Expo @ 5692

200DMA@ 5743

As an important guiding levels during next few trading

Sessions.

COMMENTS

Market moves during last few trading sessions is showing

Strength. Nifty is bouncing from the lower levels to test

The all important resistance at 5950.

It all depends on what happens to the remaining result

Season , Rollover and RBI moves on 3^rd May.

And Federal chairman’s news conferance

Any surprises(Positive or Negative) from these will

break Nifty on either side of the range

Unless events are out of the way it is difficult to predict

The direction of break out.

Keep strict stop loss at every level or wait to take firm

Positions till clouds are clear.

Long term investors can buy at all dips in Mid cap

Banks, Mid cap IT and Mid cap Pharma companies.

Stock Specific

HUL @ 284

ITC @ 192

ICICI Bank

Hindalco@ 219

Crompton@ 282

M&M @ 771

IDEA @ 68

Praj @ 83

Dish TV @ 68

Sintex @ 173

Blue Star @ 374

SCI @ 114

GATI @ 72

Ador Weilding @ 182

Allahabad Bank @219

Federal Bank @ 436

BGR Energy @ 560

Federal Mugal @ 249

Last few calls of

BOSCH

Ador fontec

Celestial Lab

GATI

Polaris

Summet Industries

Arvind

EMCO

GMDC

Federal Mugal

Hexaware

Bharti

Celestial Lab

Sharp Ind.

Have given good returns, one should carry all

Those positions as long as market is in up move.

Book part profits at first sign of correction(Nifty 5660)

And re-enter in same counters at lower levels (5550).

IMPRESSION.

At the cross roads

Thanks

Dr. Vasant Bele

All the views are personal, Invest after consulting experts

Resisting to Fall ( Defying low of Gravity)

Dear Investors

Tuesday was the day of volatility. Markets opened with lower

Valuations and continued the downward journey till afternoon.

Nifty tested the low of 5857 and bounced back in late trade to

Higher levels of the day at 5906. Nifty closed the day at 5874

With good volume and a negative advance decline ratio.

Levels during the day:

Nifty: Open: 5876/ High: 5893 /Low: 5791/ Close: 5868

Sensex: Open: 19596 /High: 19626 /Low: 19306/Close: 19545

Advance: Decline: 1570:1286

What Next

As long as result season is on and expiry is due tomorrow,

Markets will exhibit extreme volatility. Once we are out of these

It may display some direction. World markets will give a

Positive opening but results during the day and roll over

Positions will keep Nifty moving in the range 5750-5909.

Volatility will be the buzz of the day. Till we finish expiry

There will be no directional move by markets so one has

To watch the proceedings carefully.

Levels to watch

Upward: 5889(19602)/5910(19678)/5952(19812)

Down: 5808(19358)/5740(19172) /5706(19039)

Technical View:

Pivot At: 5859 (19492)

Market has continued its journey in given range but

With volatile moves, on either side.

R1 (First resistance) @ 5910(19678)

R2 (Second resistance) @ 5952(19812)

R3 (Third resistance) @ 6012(19998)

S1 (First support)@ 5808(19358)

S2 (Second support) @ 5748 (19172)

S3 (Third support) @ 5706 (19038)

During last few trading sessions Nifty has moved in a

Tight range with a resistance at 5900 and support at

5720 level

Unless Nifty moves above 5950 with good volume and

Better advance decline ratio ‘on closing basis’ it will

Continue to exhibit ‘ranged moves’

If Nifty breaks the vital support at 5700/5990 then

It will head towards the all important level of 200 Day

Exponential average at 5611(18708)

To get in to a new high or new range of 6003-6115

Nifty has to clear the level of 5998 on closing basis

VXI (Volatility Index)

Pivot @ 21.67

R1@22.4/R2@23.1/R3@24

As we are through the earning season and expiry next day

Volatility will be on rise.

VXI Has moved in an upward direction indicating a weakness

In Nifty during next few sessions.

Traders and investors should not create large positions on

Either side.

DMAs(Day moving averages)

20 DMA@5804(19332)

40 DMA @ 5626(18751)

100 DMA @ 5704(19025)

200 DMA @ 5738 (19114)

40 Day Exponential @ 5711(19031)

100 Day Exponential @ 5686(18954)

200 Day Exponential @ 5611(18708)

Nifty is moving above all the moving averages indicative

Of a strength in an up move.

In near term Nifty should not break below 20DMA@5804

And 20 Day Exponential @ 5711 on closing basis or

Remain above 200 DMA at 5738

Real threat to the on going up trend will arise if Nifty close

Below the 100 Day Expo. Average at 5686.

COMMENTS

Once again market has shown its ‘Resilience to fall’ below the

Lower end of the range 5700/5959.Nifty has resisted the 'Gravitational

force 'N' number of times

 but

It has shown reluctance to move above 5940 also. All depends

On what takes a center stage

A)

Result season

Fed meeting conclusions

Expiry rollover

Inflation

AND

RBI Monitory policy

Results of the state elections

Rise in oil after elections (Domestic)

Political instability due to 2G charge sheet

Or

B)

Liquidity

Good monsoon fore cast

Beginning of new series

Looking at COMPARETIVE WEIGTAGE of the events and factors

One can easily say ‘we are headed down’.

The fear is not out of place but the amount of liquidity or say

Momentum is such that every ‘negative ground reality’ is

Suppressed.

The fear of fall on the basis of ‘Fundamental weakness’ is

Taking markets to the lower level of range while a small good

News and or Liquidity by FII and all those who are sitting on

Side lines create the hope of moving higher and higher.

This is the name of ‘Volatility’, all this has confused everybody,

Analysts, Economists, Retailers, HNI, DII and a panwala too.

So the effect is ‘Everybody is Flirting’ with market. There are

Daily up and down swings indicative of uncertainty and nervousness

In the minds of both, ‘Bulls as well as Bears’

Only time will tell what next…….. Or ……..watch

Today’s fed meeting on global side

Or

Some good results on domestic front

 Reduction in Inflation

Or

Good monsoon

Political instability secondary to 2G

Or

RBI moving on expected lines of 25 bps rise in rates

And so on…. Nifty’s future depends on answers to all

These, till that time …….

Buy at Dips and Sell at Highs will keep Nifty ‘SHUNTING

IN A RANGE’ and retailers will observe the show from

Sidelines and

Speculators burn their fingers in volatile trades.

Choice is yours.

Market strategy

There are number of events in a day or two , it is better to

Keep away from markets till the ‘dust get settled’

If not

Day traders can keep stop loss at 5720 for all longs and

Book profit at 5920

Short traders can initiate fresh shorts at 5920 with a stop

Loss at 5998

Do not create fresh shorts  unless Nifty moves above 5920

Or below 5850 (Day traders).

Long term investors can add to their portfolio at every fall

Up to 5660.

 Stock specific

M&M

Sterlite

Sesa Goa

Maruti

SBI

BOI

ONGC

Polaris

Geodesic

Ador fonrech

SPIC

India Glycol

Gateway Distripark

GATI

Tutis tech

Celestial Lab

BOSCH

IMPRESSION

Thanks

Dr. Vasant Bele

All the views are personal , invest after consulting experts.

Tug of War

Dear Investors

Nifty and Sensex closed in a marginal down level. It was a day

Of ‘Tug of War’ between Good boys and Bad boys, Traders

Were waiting for some action to take place but the show

Ended in a ‘Tame Draw’

Advances 1,376

Declines 1,574

Volume was good

Over all there was no activity on either side,

Levels Of the day

Nifty: Open 5854, High: 5906, Low: 5857, Close: 5874

Sensex: Open: 19538, High: 19697, Low: 19531, Close: 19584

What Next

Really a great question, no body knows what next, some call

This as ‘Consolidation’ some ‘A range bound’ and some

Say it is ‘side ways’ all this indicate, no body knows………

What Next? And I too…..

But still I will be sitting in front of the screen tomorrow @ 9 am

And wait for the action, because I can not wait on side lines,

The suggestion is, wait till some action happens on either side.

Or some eventuality in Global or local economic field takes

Place to move  stock market in some decisive direction, because

The status co makes every body to loose.

If you can not wait,  then…

..

Trade with small positions and with stop loss or early profit

Booking.

When nothing is happening on ground levels, better

To follow technical.

Levels to watch:

Upward: 5901/5925/5959

Downward: 5850/5803/5776

Technical view

Pivot at: 5879(19604)

Nifty has an immediate resistance at 5909, unless

It crosses this with volume and close above it, Nifty

Will not be making a decisive move towards the

Vital level of 5959, which is the top of the range

5690-5959. there will be lot of selling pressure at

This level leading to a substantial correction.

5959 is important retracement level of the fall from

6275 to 5310. This will act as a wall in the journey

Towards 6003/6090

Nifty had corrected from 5959, 4/5 times, and taken

Support at 5700 to bounce back. Immediate support

Is at 5806(5DMA), if broken then 5784(20DMA) and 5700.

All long positions should have a stop loss at 5806

(5DMA) for day traders

It is advisable not go short till Nifty breaks below

5784/5735(200DMA)

  COMMENTS

Equal and opposite forces(in market) are pulling markets

On either directing to keep it ‘Flat’ ‘Range bound’ etc.

Events like

Falling $Index,

FII Buying

Some good results

(Sterlite/Maruti..)

Nifty above 200DMA

Are keeping bulls in strong position

While

Tuesday’s Fed meeting

Nearing Settlement on Thursday

2G Charge sheet &political apathy

Rising crude

All these are trying to pull bull’s legs

 This is keeping our markets in a tight range.

Unless some drastic change occurs we will

Not be moving out of ‘Woods’

Till that time on has to be cautious and safe.

Long term investors can try picking at all lower

Levels while short term and positional traders should

Watch the events with caution .

 Market strategy

 Short term traders should watch the levels of 5901/5928 as

 Immediate resistances, with supports at 5830/5803.

 For an up trend to continue, Nifty has to remain above

 200DMA @ 5735 ON CLOSING BASIS

 As long as Nifty is above 5750 it is advised to avoid

Positional shorts, Day shorts should have 5880/5903

As a stop loss.

All dips to lower levels up to 5776(20 Day Exp. Average

Should be bought for positional trade.

Long term investors should buy at major corrections

Or panic falls as long as Nifty is above 150 Day Expone.

Average @ 5658

Stock Specific

Sesa Goa

ICICI Bank

M&M

Hindalco

Allahabad bank

Tutis Tech.

Gati

Sharp ind.

Ador Fontech

Artson Eng.

Geodesic

Celestial Lab.

Graphite

GMDC

Thanks

Dr. Vasant Bele

All the views are personal, invest after consulting experts