Bulls on Ride

Dear Investors,

As expected markets remained subdued till last 45 minutes to an hour and then started moving upwards after testing the low of 6061 to close at 6101, nearest to the day’s top of 6106.

Today’s close is just away from important resistance level of 6115/6117. Nifty needs to close above this crucial level to continue the ‘Bull Run’ up to the ‘Earning Season’, which begins with IT Majors, in Jan 2011. The first few results will probably help Nifty propel towards the next resistance of 6161 and so on.

Earning season and ‘Pre Budget’ rally (which depends on political situation in India, and attitude of opposition party) may give energy to the ‘Bulls’ to run towards 6300.

In case the things are not favorable then the downward supports are placed at 6080/6040 and 6003, till all these support levels are ‘intact’. One should go on creating ‘longs’ at every fall (with a stop at 6003/5990 nifty level) and ‘Ride the Trend’.

One has to look markets from ‘Technical’ angle till the result season starts and gives fundamental guide for next moves. Technical data suggests that ‘Bulls’ are in a position to take the control of the markets.

Statistics for 31^ST Dec 2010

Pivot for Nifty is at: 6089

Daily and weekly rising values of Pivot is a sign that the market is moving in upward ranges so as to have a break out some time in near future

R1 (1^st Resistance) is at 6117

R2 (2^nd Resistance) is at 6133

R3 (3^rd Resistance) is at 6161

S1 (1^st Support) is at 6073

S2 (2^nd Support) is at 6045

S3 (3^rd Support) is at 6029

If observed carefully the Resistance and support levels are forming a bullish upward pattern indicating that the resistances are conquered and supports are not violated. This is definitely suggestive of ‘Bullish’ sentiment, though gradual.

WATCH THE STOCKS

Momentum /Swing/ Positional trades

Tisco

Sterlite

Hindalco

JSW Steel

GMDC

NMDC

HUL

ITC

Dabur

Suzlon

Punj Lloyed

Sree Renuka

Rajashree Sugar

Infosys

Mphasis

Polaris

Savita Oil and Tech

One can pick Investment Buys at every dip and wait for the Nifty to cross 6161 levels or keep stop loss at 6003.

Investment Buys

Hexaware, Polaris, Rolta, Sonata, Mphasis, Tutis Tech, Tata Elexi, Ranbaxy, Jyothi Lab

Atlas Copco (1771)

Godawari Power and Ispat (206)

India Glycol (160)

V. Guard (177)

EMCO (65)

Geodesic (96)

Chambal (830

SPIC (24)

Ester Ind. (79.90)

Petronate LNG (124)

Talwalkars (267)

Blue Star (430)

Camphor and Allied (259)

Ador Fontech (350)

GMR Infra

Can look as contrarian buys at

Cybele (20)

Sharp Ind. (50)

Artson Engineering (73)

These are some of the mid caps which are good investment buys from 6 to 8 months perspective. Investors should be adding them at all dips and hold for at least 6 to 8 month’s period.

WISH YOU A HAPPY AND BULLISH 2011

Thanks

Dr. Vasant Bele

Disclaimer: Views expressed are mine. Take your own investment decisions

Break Out..............?

Dear Investors

At last Nifty has given some signs of ‘Breaking Out’ of consolidation in upward    direction. Even though it is on eve of F&O Expiry, the amount of volatility was not very much. It has to be seen how Nifty closes on expiry day, Thursday. Nifty has to cross 6084 to give a clear cut breakout confirmation. One can built longs with stop loss at6019/5978 support levels, if not violated then carry the long positions to the level of 6115, and watch for next moves.

Technical data for Thursday 30^th Dec 10

NIFTY PIVOT is @ 6043

R1 (First Resistance) is @6084

R2 (Second Resistance) is @ 6108

R3 (Third Resistance) is @6149

The Pivot should be used as a guide to create long or short positions and decide the trend of the market for the day, resistance levels are to be used as a guideline to carry forward long positions and/or to book profits

S1 (First Support) is @6019

S2 (Second Support) is @5978

S3 (Third Support) is @5940

Support levels are to be used as guideline to keep stop loss for the existing longs and /or to create shorts for the day. Break below S3 may indicate reversal of the short term trend.

Stock specifics:

It is adviceble to take long positions in:

TISCO

STERLITE

SESAGOA

HINDALCO

GUJ.AMBUJA

ASHOK LEYLAND

UITED PHOS

SREE RENUKA

ALOK

ARVIND

BLUE STAR

TILAKNAGAR IND.

AMRYTANJAN

Blue star (Investment call) @435

Tilaknagar Ind. (Investment call)@86

Momentum/ Investment call

Amrutanjan(Technical call by Mr. Avinash Patil, Tech Analyst)

Todays close: 749

30DMA676

50DMA707

200DMA762

The volumes on 29^th were very high indicating investment buying.

68.1% Retracement of the movement from low 274 on 24^th 0ct 2008 to the high

Of 1345 on 5^th April 2010 is placed at 795. Cross above the levels of 200DMA and retracement level of 68.1% will take the stock in a new upward range towards the top.

PIVOT is @733

R1 is @ 792

R2 is @ 835

R3is@ 894

S1 is @690

S2 is @630

S3 is @588

HOPE FOR NEW BREAK OUT IN 2011

Thanks

Dr. Vasant Bele

Disclaimer : Invest at your risk , these are my views.

TEST of PATIENCE

  

 Dear Investors

It was most choppy day in stock market. It started with bang, continued for some time and suddenly ABORTED in the afternoon to close below 6000. Intraday Nifty tested 6045 on higher side and 5991 on lower side before closing at 5998

It was CHINA and EUROPE causing damages to Indian markets along with some of the expert views regarding US going ‘JAPAN’S WAY’, And so on. Market sentiment has becomes so weak that any small news makes it jittery.

Most encouraging thing from technical angle is the PIVOT’ for Nifty is making higher high and the R1(First resistance)and S1(First support) are also making higher tops and bottoms indicating short term UP TREND, but the question is ‘HOW LONG WILL IT CONTINUE?

Market is ‘Testing patience’ of ‘Bulls as well as Bears’ one has to be very cautious in initiating trade on any side., as in such ‘Tight Situation’ Nifty may break by 100/150 points on any side. In such circumstances either all the positions should be with strict stop losses or ‘Stay away ‘from market. Enter only when a definite trend emerges.

Technicals for 28^th Dec 2010

PIVOT is @   6011

R1 (First resistance) is @ 6031

R2 (Second Resistance) is @ 6065

R3 (Third resistance) is @ 6085 (Trend Decider)

S1 (First support) is @ 5977

S2 (Second support) is @5957

S3 (Third support) is @ 5923    (Trend Decider)

On daily basis Nifty should cross yesterday’s high of 6045 with volumes to encourage ‘BULLS’

And

Nifty should not break yesterday’s low of 5991

 This is like getting ‘caught in tight spot’, it is so.

 FOR 28TH DEC.2010

Consider following stocks for trading and or investment purposes

ITC

TISCO

STERLITE

SESA GOA

HINDALCO

ASHOK LEYLAND

MPHASIS BFL

SABERO ORGANICS

SREE RAYELSEEMA ALKALIES

SURYALATA SPINNING

HERCULES HOISTS

PUNJ LLOYED

HAVE PATIENCE

Thanks

Dr. Vasant   Bele

Disclaimer: Views are mine, invest on your responsibility

RIGHT PRESCRIPTION ?

Dear Investors,

  On Friday 24^th December, Nifty after going through the lower levels of 5940 closed at higher level of 6011, this shows the inclination of bulls to push the markets to higher levels before the end of 2010. Though the domestic conditions do not favor it, the world conditions are to great extent supportive, especially US and EUROPE, Most of the world markets are at tow year’s high level, China and Brazil are on the verge of breaking in next few days. US data for Manufactured Goods is positive; the world MSCI index is near its top

Situation is ripe for speculators and punters to prop up the markets as major FIIs and FUND managers are on holidays across the world, there is no one to sell. The domestic institutions (DI) AND Fund Managers may try to jack up the market but…

For a sustainable up move Nifty must sustain 6003 and cross 6038 levels (First Resistance) where there may be a bout of ‘Short covering’ which will enable Nifty to test 6066(Second resistance). Once these hurdles are crossed Nifty can have a look at most important resistance of 6115  

It may be difficult for BULLS to have a straight run as

1)     It is expiry week , which may cause wield swings and volatility

2)     Profit booking at every higher levels by retailers

3)     Few short positions in market, and thin volume trades in last week

Indicating that, there are fewer positions on either side.

      4) Crude closing at 90 $ barrels, threatening Food inflation number etc.

     Then what next?

So while positioning one has to be very careful and follow the ‘Resistance and Support’ levels very strictly

NIFTY PIVOT FOR 27^TH DEC is at 5989

R1 (First resistance) is at         6038

R2 (Second resistance) is at    6066

R3 (Third resistance) is at       6115

S1 (First support) is at               5961

S2 (Second support) is at           5912

S3 (Third support) is at              5884

Market Status is Short term bullish. If you look at the weekly technical of market ,the Bearish trend started  earlier has not yet nullified. I would look for a weekly close above 6030-70 for the weekly chart to go back to bullish mode.

Market strategy:

Short term traders can buy in declines as long as NIFTY trades above5912

Level

Short term traders can book profits if Nifty reaches at 6066 and wait to see if Nifty cross over to the immediate resistance level of 6089.Closure above 6066 should encourage new buying and carrying forward the longs.

STOCK SPECIFIC:

TATA STEEL

SESA GOA

STERLITE

ITC

INFOSYS

RANBAXY

SUNPHARMA

UNITED PHOSPHEROUS

MPHASIS

SREE RENUKA SUGAR

BLUE STAR

GODAWARI POWER AND ISPAT

GEODESIC

GRAPHITE IDIA

HERCULES HOISTS

ATLAS CYCLES

NIIT TECH

CAMPHOR AND ALLIED

ARVIND MILLS

SURYALATA SPINNING

SINTEX INDUSTRIES

V GUARD

EMCO

All at 24^th closing values, with strict stop loss at b5/7% down levels. Investors can carry forward positions till the last support level for Nifty at 5884

HAPPY AND PROFITABLE ‘2011’

Thanks

Dr. Vasant Bele

Disclaimer: Views expressed are mine. Take your own investment decisions

  

SUSPENDED ANIMATION

 

  Dear investors

Markets moved in an absolute narrow range all the day, volumes were low, no volatility,

No momentum at all. It looks that markets are going to be lack luster till year end.

There is neither domestic institutional buying nor FII buying? How log will it continue is not known, probably till F&O expiry, End of the year, or next result season?

One has to keep his fingers crossed till there is some directional move, till that time keep away from active participation in the market.

Nifty has to move above the level of 5980 on closing basis with volume to label that the up trend is continued or has to break 5900 indicating that the bulls are tired.

One thing is certain that Geopolitical, Financial and sentimental conditions do not indicate that something positive will happen. Looks like a state of ‘Suspended Animation’

In such circumstances better to be on the side lines. If there are profitable trades book them, if there are minor losses book them too and remain ‘Light’ on markets till there is some clue.

Technically nothing has changed since 23^rd Dec

No fresh calls today

Just watch from sidelines

Thanks

Dr. Vasant Bele

Disclaimer: Views expressed are mine. Take your own investment decisions

Locked in Range

Dear Investors,

Nifty started with a big bang, maintained the run expectantly till afternoon and then ‘ABORTED’ at the end to finish in winning trend, Reasons are many but the fact is NIFTY IS LOCKED IN A RANGE 5888 /6083

What keeps nifty in a tight range is

1)     Investors are booking profits at higher levels

2)     All the longs are with thin volume

3)     Intraday news flows like RIL news, Korean Ghost, and Portugal Fears

4)     F&O Expiry in sight and,

5)     Holiday period

All these events are keeping bulls guessing all the day and to run for shelter at the end of the day.

In such circumstances one has to be very careful in creating ‘longs’ as well as ‘shorts’.

Today

Nifty closed @ 5984

High                 6020

Low                  5958

For 23^rd Dec 10

PIVOT @5988 (FOR THE DAY)

R1 (First Resistance) 6018

R2 (Second Resistance) 6053

R3 (Third resistance) 6083

S1 (First support) 5953

S2 (Second support) 5923

S3 (Third support) 5888

5 DMA (Day moving average) 5955

20 DMA (Day moving average) 5910

50 DMA (Day moving average) 6025

200 DMA (Day moving average) 5543

For all the LONG  and POSITIONAL traders

A) START UNWINDING @5953

B) CONTINUE UNWINDING@5923 and,

C) CLOSE ALL LONGS @5888

There is a ‘NO MAN’S LAND’ between 5888 and 5800

For bulls picture will be grim below 5800 AND Bears can start creating shorts

CAUTION

All the longs should be with 5 to 7% stop losses. Try to book part profits at higher levels till Nifty closes above 6080. Till 5777 the long-term ‘up’ trend is intact, below that it may reverse.

Stocks for day trader’s adventure are,

1) Blue Star

2) TISCO

3) HINDALCO

4) V GUARD

5) SAHYADRI IND

6) SUMEET IND.

7) SREE RAYALSEEMA ALKALIES

8) PUNJ LLOYED

9) BILT

10) ALEMBIC

THINK TWICE BEFORE LEAPING

Thanks

Vasant Bele

Disclaimer: Views expressed are mine. Take your own investment decisions

NEEDS A PUSH

Dear Investors,

At last Nifty closed at 6000.It looks like Nifty is emerging out of consolidation to break upward. If Nifty can cross the 6003 level decisively then the last hurdle will be at 6069 and 6115 towards the new top formation. Hope New Year will give a ‘PUSH’ to the levels of 6115/6220; it has to be with high volume and with broader market participation

Will Bulls ‘PRESS’ key to ‘PUSH’ markets up, up and up? At least the gross technical favors ‘BULLS

From 1^st December to 21^ST December Nifty ‘PIVOTAL’ valuation has given good consolidation and to some extent higher tops and higher bottom formation (See the chart below). Same is the case with R1 (First resistance level) and S1 (First support levels) indicating a good probability of Nifty moving to higher levels in next few trading sessions, if not will consolidate for some more time.

On 21^st December

NIFTY closed at 6000

NIFTY High was 6007

NIFTY low was 5960

NIFTY PIVOT FOR 22^ND December is @ 5989

R1 (First resistance) @ 5999

S1 (First support) @5975

20 DMA (Day moving average) 5907

40DMA (Day moving average)@5961

Indicates that Nifty has closed above these crucial levels and has not broken the support too, A sign of ‘Good Omen’

MARKET MOVERS FOR NEXT FEW DAYS

Tata Steel

Hindalco

Sterlite

RIL

Gail

Infosys

ICICI Bank

HUL

BHARTI

Look at some minor counters like

JAGARAN PRAKASHAN

BLUE STAR

EMCO

ELECON

HEXAWARE

RCF

PETRONET LNG

TWILIGHT LITEKA PHARMA

GODAWARI POWER @ISPAT

TALWALKARS

TECHPRO

PRAJ IND

POLARIS

ALEMBIC

ACE

And INDUSIND BANK

Keep watch on market direction and have 5 to7% stop loss and ride the values

Prepare for the ride but with ‘CAUTION’ as ’NO BODY CAN TIME THE MARKET’

Thanks,

Dr. Vasant Bele

Disclaimer: Views expressed are mine. Take your own investment decisions

ONE MORE DULL DAY

Dear Investors,

One more range bound flat day. Market is moving in a range 5800-6000

It looks like it is in a process of consolidation, but the question is , on which side it will break ? Apparently it looks like to be upward direction, Nifty is forming higher bottoms (Intra day) indicating consolidation in positive bias. Nifty has to sustain 5940 and cross 6090 to march towards new top. Break below 5940/5903 can take Nifty back to 5815/5880 levels.

No body can predict what way the ‘Pendulum’ will swing and when? It is difficult to ‘Time’ the markets; one has to watch with cautious optimism

For 21^st

PIVOT is at: 5944 (Pivot should be used to decide the direction of market and to use Targets and Stop loss)

R1 (First Resistance): 5988

R2 (Second Resistance) 6029

R3 (Third Resistance) 6073

S1 (First Support) 5903

S2 (Second support) 5859

S3 (Third Support) 5818

For Day Trade here are some stocks to go long

1)Hexaware @109

    Pivot is at: 108.10

    R1 is @112

    R2 is @ 114.70

    R3 is @ 118.60(Book profits)

    S1 is @ 105.40

    S2 is @ 101.30

    S3 is @ 98.70 (Stop loss)

2)Renuka Sugar @92.75

Pivote is @91.90

R1 is @94.50

R2 is @ 96.30

R3 is @98.10(Book profit)

S1 is @90.18

S2 is @87.60

S3 is @85.80(Stop loss)

3)Twilight Liteka Pharma@93.95

Pivot is @91.65

R1 is @97.30

R2 is @100.65

R3 is @106.10

S1 is @88.30

S2 is @82.85

S3 is @79.30

These are day trades. Can be converted in positional or swing trades depending on market direction

WATCH CAREFULLY

Thanks

Dr. Vasant Bele

Disclaimer: Views expressed are mine. Take your own investment decisions

Vision is not clear

Dear Investors

There is no clear vision as far as the market direction is concerned. Common investor and even HNIS are not sure regarding market movement in near future. Market needs stability to take any direction, market must get ‘CONSOLIDATED’ in a small range. Due to day to day POSITIVE and NIGETIVE news flow from

Various directions, market is going through a very high’ Volatility’, leading to uncertainty in the minds of investors(Bulls and Bears)

The Balancing has to done between,

THE POSETIVES

• Good performance by the companies
• RBI increasing the banking liquidity
• Reasonable valuations of stocks
• High cash holding by the Investors
• And Fund mangers
• Loose monetary policy and Quantities easing in US
• High Advance Tax collection 

  

As against, 

THE NEGATIVES

• Concerns ‘REGARDING POLITICAL SITUATION IN COUNTRY’
• The issues like ‘Rahul Gandhi’s’ remarks, ‘Raja’s’ corruption’, Radia affair, Opposition Not allowing ‘PARLAMENT’ to function,
• Entire situation does not give ‘time and will’ to the Government, to execute the policies and plans so as to keep ‘Economy’ in high speed,
• Different SCAMS and involvement of companies in it,
• Rising food and commodity prices, not allowing ‘Inflation to settle down,
• Rising oil prices and pressure on currency,
• Down gradation of number of European countries by world ‘Rating agencies’,
• China tightening its economy,
• Last but not the least is very high ‘VOLATILITY’ in stock market.

All this is not allowing technical of the market to work, even though the

Technical data is indicating a short term ‘Upwards BIAS’

Market Technical

Nifty Closed at: 5948 (High: 5965, Low: 5855)

Pivot is at: 5922

R1 (First Resistance): 5990

R2 (Second Resistance): 6032

R3 (Third Resistance):6090

Any strong move (on closing basis) above this zone will mean that the Nifty can move on to a new zone, 6220- 6300

Suggestion: Traders can book part profit on their long positions at 6090 levels

S1 (First Support): 5880

S2 (Second Support): 5812

S3 (Third Support): 5770

Suggestion: If market remains above the third support levels on can take long positions with a stop of 5690

However decline below third support can take Nifty to most critical support

Level 5690, decline below which Nifty can head towards 5501.

Markets need to consolidate in the range 5690-6220 to go ahead and form new high or change medium and long term trends ‘Downward’

It is still not advised to take ‘Investment Positions’

If some one wants to play markets under the clouds of uncertainty

Do think of few stocks to trade.

TISCO

BHARATI

MPHASIS

POLARIS

HEXAWARE

SONATA

ROLTA

TUTIS TECH.

ALOK

ARVIND

HIMMATSINGKA

SHIVA TEXYARN

SURYALATA SPINNING

BILT

GMR Infra

CHAMBLA FERT.

BALAGI DISTILLARIES

EMCO

GODAWARI POWER AND ISPAT

REPRO INDIA

NIFTY BeEs

 Can avoid Banking/ Auto / Reality

TRY TO TEAR THE CLOUDS

Thanks

Dr. Vasant Bele

Disclaimer: Views expressed are mine. Take your own investment decisions