Themeless (moves)

Dear Investors

It was one more ‘Theme less’ day on stock markets. Sluggish sentiment

kept markets in a tight range of 25/30 Nifty points. It was rotational moves

In large caps and mid cap stocks kept traders busy for six hours. Market

Is neither giving away supports nor holding gains to move beyond the upper

band of the range. Nifty opened with small negative gap and continued to

move in small moves to end in minor loss.

RIL/Tata motor/Land T/Sesa Goa/Hindalco and Bharti registered gains

in a volatile market, to keep Nifty from falling below 5600.

while banks like SBI/Canara/BOB/ICICI Bank and HUL /Infy/TCS/R.Com

and Dr.Redy’s lab kept Nifty away from 5650.

Data for the day

Indices

Open: 5622(18730)

High: 5655(18823)

Low: 5610(18682)

Close: 5625(18726)

Advance Decline: 1504:1407

Turnover: 70,000cr

Asian markets were in red, while European markets lost the

Ground on the news of troubled Portugal

Chin’s increase in rate created nervousness in Asian markets.

Dow: +56(12626)

S& P: +1(1339)

Gold: 1529$/oz (22197/10gm)

Silver: 35.92$/oz (54050/kg)

Crude: 96.65$/brl (4295)

$Index: 75.04

What Next:

It looks that market will be grinding in a range till earning season

starts or some global or local news or an event hits the market.

traders and investors are waiting for some sort of a trigger. In

absence of all that market will be moving in an ‘Aimless’ direction.

decreased volume and very limited range indicates the nervousness

of the participants ahead reason season. It all On which side the range

will break is really a misty, one has to go by the technical levels till

there is a directional break out. Except US markets, all other Global

markets are moving in negative direction. China’s rate hike and

Portugal’s down grade, by world rating agency has taken commodity

prices to higher levels and precious metals saw big buying.

Levels to watch:

Upward: 5650(18743)/5695(18946)/5721(19071)

Downward: 5610(18682)/5580(18600)/5560(18520)

Technical view

Pivot at: 5630/18743

Nifty is facing lot of resistance @5650(18805) level. Close above

this will take Nifty to next resistance @ 5710/5720(19020/19070)

before striking 200DMA@5748(19141)level.

Short term traders should watch 5580/5559(18600/18520)

 as immediate support in case Nifty slides down.

As long as Nifty is above 5515 (18380), it is likely to maintain

the on going up trend.

Any drift below 5515 and 5480(18300) should be taken as a

move in negative direction

Watch 5515(18380)/5480(18300) levels

Market strategy

-Buy all the falls up to 5515/5500

-Keep stoploss at 5480 for all long positions

  And target at 5721 for profit booking

-No fresh shorts till Nifty is above 5550

-Existing shorts should have stop loss at 5690

 And target of 5515/5480 for profit booking

-5695/5710 should be treated as ‘No trade zone’

Stock specific:

Tata Motors

Bajaj Auto

ITC

Dabur

Infosys

NTPC

L and T

Sesa Goa

Hindalco

Colgate

V-Guard@230

GMDC@160

IDEA @78

NIIT Tech@182

Polaris @187

Petronet@141

Tecpro@279

Celestial Lab @35

Suzlon@53

United phosphorous@157

Weizman forex@58

Hercules Hoist@263

EMCO@52

Wochardt @401

Ind swift lab@101

Keep stop loss of 3 to 5% lower Or Nifty level of 5480/5515

COMMENTS

Stagnant Economic and Geo political status is keeping Indian

markets in a ranged move, small hiccough from global front

like China’s rate hike and Portugal’s d- rating has added some

nervousness. Market is waiting…….

Result season, which will be the main driver for markets, any

disappointment on earning front will break the range in

downward direction while surprised on positive side may take

markets beyond 5750 levels for some time, but the ultimate

momentum will be dependant on

Monsoon

Inflation

RBI’s stand on interest rates.

There is a strange ‘Dichotomy’ going on in daily trades, FII

are putting lot of money in buying large and mid cap stocks

while DII (Domestic Institutions)are constant sellers in market.

There is no participation from HNI(High net worth Individuals)

while retail traders are mainly day traders in F and O market.

This particular situation is keeping long term investors away

from investment buying. Situation will not change unless

there is some strong positive trigger like…

Good monsoon

Fall in inflation

RBI talking of growth and stability in rates

Government moving on policy front

Crude prices are stabilized

US and other global economies stop defaulting.

All in all environment is not promising for near term bullishness.

IMPRESSION

HESITANT TO ..(move)

Thanks

Dr. Vasant Bele

All the views are personal, invest with caution and after

Consulting experts