Dear Investors,
Tuesday was marked by ‘reluctance’ of the market to move
On any direction because of lack of fresh buying or profit
Booking and absence of global cues. Markets opened in
Negative territory and went on moving indecisively all the
Day without much gains or loss. Volumes and Breadth of the
Market was at its low and there was no significant moves in
Prices of large cap as well as mid cap stocks except RIL on
News related to DGH and Murli Deora’s resignation and
BHEL on the back of FPO news lost some ground otherwise
The trading was sluggish. Nifty moved in a range of 5610/5659
To close at 5632 with some loss
Data for the day:
Indices
Open: 5659(18837)
High; 5659(188370
Low: 5612(18694)
Close: 5632(18744)
Advance Decline: 1497:1317
Turnover: 78,000 cr
To negative with European markets trading in red
Gold: 1512$/oz (21970/10gm)
Silver: 35.41$oz(52170?kg)
Crude: 97.15/brl(4330)
$Index: 74.6
What Next:
In absence of Global Cues and carry forward buying by FII
And some profit booking by traders was responsible for
Inaction in markets. Going forward market, ahead of the
Result season, will remain subdued in a range. Any surprise
On either side will be path breaking for Indian markets.
Bulls have managed to take markets above water levels.
It has to be seen how far it moves in coming days. All depends
On results, FII flow, RBI stand on rate, Global news flow and
Government action on various issues, like FDI in retail, Fert.rate,
Lokpal bill and Cabinet re shuffle, till that time technical levels will
Be the best guide.
Levels to watch:
Upward: 5650(18800)/5703(18965)/5748(19151)
Downward: 5610(18690)/5585(18549)/5527(18420)
Technical View:
Pivot at:
5634/18758
Nifty is struggling to move past 5650 on closing basis.
It has a strong resistance at 5656(18822) and 5681(18900)
Once Nifty manages to close above 5680 level it will have
A major resistance at 5710(18980) before taking out 200DMA
@5748.
It looks market will not move in hurry towards 200DMA/5748.
Some profit booking and result worry may pull Nifty to lower
Support @ 5610/5597(18654) levels.
Any negative surprise will lead to a panic fall towards 5549(18500)
Which is 100DMA and 5515(18380), which is 50 DMA
As long as Nifty is above 5480 ‘bulls’ have good chance to re start
The up move, once Nifty slides below 5440 it will initiate ‘panic’
Selling and a fresh down move so
Watch the levels
5480/5440/5420, during corrections.
Market strategy
-Buy the dips up to 5515
-Do not short at this level
-All existing longs should have stop loss at 5480 and
Target of 5710
-5690-5710 should be treated as ‘no trade zone’
- Existing shorts should have stop loss at 5710 and
A target of 5549/5515.
Stock specific:
-Ahead of result season trade in small positions with a
Stop loss in place and booking regular profits
Last few days recommendation in some stocks have given
Good returns and deserve profit booking, like….
Castrol,M & M, SPIC,GATI,Pacific Ind
India Glycol, Ranbaxy,Lupin,Central Bank,Talwalkars,Sterlite
Technology,PFC,SONATA,BOSCH …..
ITC
Dabur
M& M
Ranbaxy
BOB
R.Com
HCL Tech.
TCS
PFC@190
REC@200
Castrol@176
HDIL@162
Mahindra Forge@72
GATI@66
EMCO@52
Talwalkar@255
NELCO@99
Polaris@188
Rolta @135
NIIT Tech @186
Geometric@53
Samkrag Piston@81
Sharp@66
Pacific Ind@180
Arvind@82
Celestial Lab @ 35
Fluidomat@30
Keep proper stop loss at 3/5% down the value or Nifty
Level of 5480
COMMENTS
It looks markets are headed for a ‘Pull Back’, there is lot of
Skepticism and nervous sentiment in traders and FIIs ,
The reasons are
-Result season, Indian industrial will have a problem in maintaining
Bottom line due to rising commodity prices, increased labor cost
And increased cost of credit.
-FII flows, the recent rise in market was due to fresh flow from FII
Due to cheaper valuations and fall in precious metals along with
Some worries in US and Europe . FII will be carefully watching
Results and Government action on reform front before putting
Some money.
-Monsoon , though it was a good start, there is lack of proper distribution
And some parts are devoid of rains required for sowing.
-RBI policy on 26th July, will there be one more rate hike, will RBI
Hint at further increases and the impressions on Growth and Inflation
-Oil price will be one more important factor in deciding inflation and rates
-Government’s action on policy front,Oil and Gas,Fertilizer, FDI in retail
Capital expenditure on Infra etc.
All in all there are number of ‘Domestic’ factors which will govern the
further progress of Indian market along with US economy and Greece
situation
IMPRESSION
SKEPTICAL
Thanks
Dr. Vasant Bele
All the views are personal, Invest with caution and after
Consulting experts
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