Dear Investors
It was 'HORROR SHOW' on dalal street, concerns over Libya,
Crude oil prices and Rising Food Inflation created panic in market
leading to 'Bloody Melt Down' of stock prices, the magnitude of sellin
can be judged from cash market selling worth 2700 Crore Rupees in a day
Crude oil prices and Rising Food Inflation created panic in market
leading to 'Bloody Melt Down' of stock prices, the magnitude of sellin
can be judged from cash market selling worth 2700 Crore Rupees in a day
Nifty opened with small down gap and continued to fall till
afternoon. Moment crude prices touched 102$/barrel, Nifty started
slipping fast and in a flash reached 5240 levels Creating shivers in
the minds of traders and analysts. The speed, Breadth and volumes
Was scary.At the end Nifty managed to close (above 5200) at 5262
. In doing so all the Fundamental and Technical ideas were washed
out in sea of blood on dalal street, at the end only skeletons were
remaining on the floor. Market breadth and Volumes were all
Time high and number of stock had fallen by 15 to 20%. There
were no buyers on the street.
What Next
At present there is nothing but darkness and darkness, Only consoling
thing for Paralyzed Bulls was, Nifty managed to close above
5200. Now the next immediate support is at
5177(Few weeks back low). Nifty may bounce back from this level
one more time to scale up to the important resistance level of 5330
a)Global situation
US Markets
US Joless data
b) Railway budget
c) Fresh buying by FII(Foreign Institutional Investors)
DII(Domestic Institutional Investors) and Skeletos
Of Retail investors
d)Crude prices
Levels to Watch
UPWARD: 5330/5380/5400
DOWNWARD: 5180/5115/5060
Significance
5180 is the level from where Nifty had bounced baco to reach
5599. It is expected
‘If nothing untoward happens’ that Nifty will bounce from here to
test 5330, the first
more down wave then
The immediate support is at 5515/ 5060. At least till budget Nifty
is expected to remain Above 5177. After that everything
depends on Union Budget
Technical View
Pivot For Nifty: 5309
R1 (First Resistance0 is @ 5376
R2 (Second resistance) is @ 5490
R3 (Third resistance) is @ 5557
Significance
In given situation Nifty has to cross R1 (5376) to keep hopes alive for
An upward move
R2/R3 looks difficult in such ‘Bruised’ conditions. For that the
’Magician’ Mr. Mukhrjee has to do lot of jugglery, which looks
difficult
S1 (First support) is @ 5195
S2 (Second support) is @ 5128
S3 (Third support0 is @ 5014
Significance
R1(5195) is the nearest level Nifty may test sometime
during the day. If 5177 Is held till Monday then there is every
chance that even a ‘Neutral’ budget
Will arrest further fall in markets
Breach of 5177 will open flood gates for Nifty leading to a
totally new range
Of 5060/5115
All depends on how far PURCHASING IS DONE BY LONG
TERM PLAYERS
VXI(Volatility Idex)
Pivot is at: 27.83
Significance
It is well above 24, and all the values of Resistanceare crossed
on each day Indicating every day rise
After oil, this is the main ‘CULPRIT’ which has massacred the traders.
It was expected that expiry will cause volatile movements at the end but
It was not expected to such an extent
DMAs(Day Moving Averages)
5DMA@5429
20DMA@5420
50DMA@5702
200DMA@5642
Significance
Nifty has to cross 5DMA/20DMA to remain in up move or
say avoid further fall.
There are remote chances that Nifty will be moving towards
200DMA.
COMMENTS
All will not be well unless OIL stops boiling. There is every chance
That Nifty may bounce back on yesterdays over sold positions
But it has to be seen how far it sustains. Nifty may test 5330
And if maintains for some time will try to scale up to 5380/5400
Level. The railway budget will be significant from further course
Of market at least for the day.
One thing is certain ‘Budget or No Budget’ it is very difficult for
Markets to recover the losses in near future, unless something
Drastic happens. The chances of such happening are remote
Every rise should be used to book positions by long traders.
Short sellers should keep stop loss at 5420 level.
Long term trend has changed te 'Bearish' one . One has to watch
levels'
5177 ,5115 and 5060 ,
If Nifty falls below 5060 then the new range will be 5014/4880
Stock specific
Do not take positions in stocks related to Railway, Like
Texmaco
Kalindi Rail
T.Wagons etc
Adventurous traders and long term Investors can create long
positions in
SBI
ICICI Bank
RIL
INFOSYS
HCL Tech
ITC
YES Bank
Ramkey Infra
GMR Infra
GVK Power
Mphasis
Polaris
Hercules Hoist
Arvind
Alok
Brand House
Suryalata Spinning
Wait for Pharma/ Capitol Good cos.till budget
IMPRESSIONS
Budget will be the last hope for 'Bulls'
Thanks
Dr. Vasant Bele
All the views are personal, invest with after consulting experts
.
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