Dear Investors
Today markets opened on positive note but were unable to sustain early hour gains and witnessed selling in the later half of the session to finally close in red one more flop day on stock markets. For last few trading sessions markets are not sustaining higher levels may be because of profit booking at higher levels or surrendering the positions at the end of the day. This has created a ‘Dilemma’ in the minds of ‘Traders and Investors’ ‘Bulls and Bears’. Time is ticking for the final drama on 25th or the F& O settlement day for the markets to take medium term ‘Directional’ view.,. Satisfying part for Bulls is, Nifty is moving around 5600, which is near 200DMA, and Nifty has tested 200DMA thrice and bounced back. But the real ‘DILEMMA’ is, in which direction will it ‘Break?’ It is anybody’s guess.
On the other hand higher levels are suffering from ‘Profit Booking’ and Shorting’ to make Nifty move in a band of 5600 – 5740
On 19th Nifty opened with small gap up but could not sustain higher levels .After making a high of 5747 it went down to 5662 and closed at 5691 with modest loss.
According to the daily charts and report, we are expecting that prices may be hovering above the 200-day SMA (5,600 levels) but the bias is on the negative side. In coming intraday trading session, if Nifty trade below 5,660 levels, then it is likely to test 5,615 - 5,603 levels. On the upside Nifty may face resistance at 5,738 - 5,785 levels.
Technical View
PIVOT FOR NIFTY: 5700
R1 (First resistance) is @ 5738
R2 (Second resistance) is @ 5785
R3 (Third resistance) is @ 5823
S1 (First support) is @ 5653
S2 (Second support) is @ 5615
S3 (Third support) is @ 5568
Significance:
On 19th Jan Nifty R1 was @ 5745, which was the high on that day indicating’ even at first resistance level there is selling pressure. While S1 on 19TH Jan. was @5686,Nifty closed near this support @5691 indicating a great ‘DILEMMA’ in the minds of traders and investors. Here lies the importance of Resistance and support levels in helping traders and investors during day trades.
Nifty has to hold levels of 5615 which is near 200DMA, any move towards S3 , 5568
Will be disastrous for market’ Trend’.
SO AT LEAST FOR THE TIME BEING FOLLOW THE ‘Resistance and Support’ levels so as to limit your loss.
Volatility Index (VXI)
In one of the Blog it was mentioned that the High of VXI is 24, at present it is moving around 20/21 without much intra day swings indicating
That volatility is getting reduced, indicating a tight range-bound market.
MOVING AVERAGES
5DMA@5695
20DMA@5924
50DMA@5949
20DMA@5924
50DMA@5949
200DMA@5611
Significance
Even though Nifty has taken support at 5695(5DMA) The distance it has to traval to reach 20 DMA is really too much , some extra ordinary event only can make it possible.
As nifty is constantly remaining above 200DMA, the chances of revival of ‘Up trend’ remain high, so watch both the levels carefully.
Conclusion
Investors are advised to keep away from creating log term positions. Any short or long position should be guarded by reasonable stop loss (5/7%)
If Nifty breaks 5600 on closing basis we are headed towards the levels of 5380/5400
Close above 5770/5800 should be encouraging for higher levels move .
One should book profits or create fresh shorts below 5880/5960
Close above 5690/6003 should be used to close all ‘Shorts’ or to create fresh ‘Long’ positions.
IMPRESSION\
Market wills not give any directional view till RBI policy is out and F&O settlement is done. So Range Is the Key.
STOCK SPECIFICS
Traders can take swift positions in
TISCO
HINDALCO
STERLITE
POLARIS
BHARTI
HUL
BIOCON
There are number of stocks worth buying at all dips, but for long term investors.
Rolta
Mphasis
EMCO
Ahalcon Parenterals
ARSS Infra
Camphor and Allied
Celestial Lab
Jyothi Lab
Sharp Ind
Gulshan Poly.
Pipava Ship.
DO NOT TIME THE MARKET, TIME YOUR INVESTMENT DECISION
Thanks
Dr. Vasant Bele
These are my personal views, Take expert opinion before investing
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