Bull Is On "Weak" Wicket

Bull is on "Weak" wicket

Dear Investors,

The three test match series against the kiwis is over on a disappointing note. There was great optimism that Sachin Tendulkar will achieve a landmark of 50^th test century. This pressure of ‘over optimism’ of people around the word made his approach cautious, resulting in a benign delivery claiming his wicket.

Similar is the state of Indian markets, bulls/traders and investors are over optimistic regarding market crossing ‘All time top’ of 6321(Nifty - a land mark). Just a smallest event like firing across two Korean borders has caused steep intra day fall, people dealing in Indian markets have created lots of bullish positions expectantly, so that a small event can make people scary and surrender the holdings to take markets to lower levels. This indicates that the sentiment of traders and investors is very weak across the section of market, indicating that the bulls are really on weak wicket. So, take care in forming long positions and carrying them for next series, even a small thing can create a panic in the market.

As written yesterday market retraced from the Nifty levels of 6000 plus and tested 5860, 5827 intraday and bounced back to the levels of 5934. This market is forming lower tops and lower bottoms, indicative of probable short term downward trend, so ‘Bulls be careful’. Nifty has to close above 6050 for two trading sessions, so as to give some indication of bullish trend reversal, otherwise take care in forming ‘Longs’. You might get trapped and stripped. Below 5820 do not keep your ‘Longs’ or book profits if you are in. Even do not create ‘Shorts’ at this level.  Bears will become aggressive below 5650. You can start creating ‘Shorts’ at 5720 (closing basis) in anticipation. (but above 5620 be prepared to jump back to school of Bulls)

Market at this period is very critically placed, window shoppers should tighten their purse and wait in the wings till there are signals for trend reversal, till that time ‘CASH IS KING’, and enjoy market’s ‘BUNGEE JUMPING from sidelines.

Today’s Thought

There are few ‘Dare Devils’ in the market who in a falling market try to do ‘AVERAGING,’ It would be wise not to try to catch ‘A FALLING KNIFE’, you will cut your fingers and pocket too. And even a plastic surgeon will not be of any help.

No buying calls today, only prayers for the Bulls and curses for Bears

      Hope for

6050/6115

Hate at

5720 / 5680

Just a friendly advice of caution: ‘Stop pilling Longs to save Losses’.

Thanks,

Dr. Vasant Bele.

DISCLAIMER: I might have personal interest in stocks advised, I might go totally wrong in predicting the markets so you are advised to invest on your own perception and responsibility.